BajaNomad - Tropical Storm OTIS

Tropical Storm OTIS

rpleger - 9-29-2005 at 09:46 AM

Here come trouble.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Fill your gas tanks and get ready.

a2

bajalou - 9-29-2005 at 10:12 AM

Also check out

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?a=a&a...

:?:

Grab Your Ankles......................

MrBillM - 9-29-2005 at 12:31 PM

And kiss your butt goodbye.

Just kidding. Hope that the track is wrong.

Otis

bajajudy - 9-29-2005 at 02:07 PM

I hope that the US Navy doesnt mind my stealing this image.

Hey guys be thankful that we dont live in the western Pacific where Longwang is threatening.

[Edited on 9-29-2005 by bajajudy]

bajajudy - 9-29-2005 at 02:23 PM

I guess I should have said girls

Pompano, I just thought the name Longwang was funny.
Must be a pink thing

With that name;....

neilmac - 9-29-2005 at 03:02 PM

one can scarcely imagine!!??

Quote:

Originally posted by Pompano
Ah..what's that storm in the western Pacific threatening to do?

Neil

bajajudy - 9-29-2005 at 03:43 PM

It is dark and windy here in San Jose del Cabo. Certainly looks like a storm is coming.
I am off to stock up.

Now that's just great...

Mexray - 9-29-2005 at 04:55 PM

We are headed down to Bahia Concepcion next week, hoped to get there Thursday or Friday...looks like it's going to be a 'wet' trip - I'll have to put some new windshield wipers on the old Bronco before we leave! Maybe some water-wings, too!

rts551 - 9-29-2005 at 06:59 PM

http://www.bajainsider.com/weather/hurricanes/2005/hurricane...

rts551 - 9-29-2005 at 07:04 PM

could be a lot of weather. stock up.

http://www.eebmike.com/

Eli - 9-29-2005 at 07:06 PM

Thanks for all the up dates. I am more than a little interested in the weather about now. A good rain would be nice, but please, nothing more.

bajalou - 9-29-2005 at 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by rts551
could be a lot of weather. stock up.

http://www.eebmike.com/

One of the most complete sites for Baja Sur predictions/guesses and views.

:biggrin:

rts551 - 9-29-2005 at 08:01 PM

being a part time resident of Punta Abreojos, I too am very interested in Pacific weather patterns. This one might bring me more than I want.

Here's another Sat Pic...and in color too!

Mexray - 9-29-2005 at 11:17 PM

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeswest/pacific/color/0000_latest...

Bob and Susan - 9-30-2005 at 06:12 AM

Ray...we're driving down Sunday...
Can you Post road conditions as soon as you get there???

The Bay of Conception looks sooo small compared to the size of those clouds....

Thanks

bajajudy - 9-30-2005 at 06:40 AM

I just looked at the above sat pic and I cant even see Bahia Concepcion...not a good sign.
It is dark here at 7:45 but no wind.
Of course we have appointments in San Lucas today. Hope the creek dont rise.

bajajudy - 9-30-2005 at 06:54 AM

I would say that I will see some rain today here in San Jose del Cabo

wilderone - 9-30-2005 at 08:39 AM

Looks like it might blow away a few of those Loreto Bay condos - thanks, Mother.

bajajudy - 9-30-2005 at 09:01 AM

Please be careful what you wish for

bajajudy - 9-30-2005 at 09:08 AM

10:15am
Rain-light
Gusts-20mph
very dark
Huge surf out of the south.
Almost all pangas have been pulled off the beach.
battaning down.
hasta :no:

Good luck Judy

jrbaja - 9-30-2005 at 10:50 AM

Let us know when you are able.

bajajudy - 9-30-2005 at 11:41 AM

Calm after a real downpour.
All roads still open.
Spent all morning pruning. Hopefully we wont get much wind and the rain is welcomed....in small quantities....if only we could pick and choose!

Most of our weather should come tonight....love those in the middle of the night fire drills.

JR, I heard that it rained all night in Los Barriles. All the boats off the beach there too. I just bet your bamboo is very happy.

Happy Bamboo

jrbaja - 9-30-2005 at 11:46 AM

and I hope you stay that way too! With just the right amount of water. I think that's what's going to happen too!
Thanks

Tucker - 9-30-2005 at 01:23 PM

After monitoring the projected track for a few days, it seems the projection is bending more and more east, given that trend I think Otis has a good possiblitiy of crossing the peninsula at Mulege or further south. How's that for sticking my neck out?

Either way

jrbaja - 9-30-2005 at 01:34 PM

I'd keep the Galoshes handy. :light:

Hey Mulege...

Sharksbaja - 9-30-2005 at 01:52 PM

Oh crud....

I don't like these models: :wow:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200515_model...

Good site, first I've seen it

Tucker - 9-30-2005 at 01:57 PM

One projection is even near La Paz.

Taco de Baja - 9-30-2005 at 02:34 PM

here's the Navy's take

navy

Hang on Abreojos!

rts551 - 9-30-2005 at 03:10 PM

Yes most predictions have it going to Abreojos. Hope I have a roof left.

Sharksbaja - 9-30-2005 at 03:12 PM

and Whistler?

Sept storm history

tehag - 9-30-2005 at 03:44 PM

Shows that Sept cat 2s often like to swing east over the penninsula.

Bears serious attention, I think.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200515_climo...

bajajudy - 9-30-2005 at 04:58 PM

Very dark and gusts 25-30

All trees and palms have been trimmed.
Blades removed from outdoor fans.
Vehicles out of harms way.
Second floor secure.
Beer bought
Food in frig and freezer
Gas for generator and vehicles.
Food for chickens, parakeets bought.
Parakeets on the porch,(they live in cages in the trees).
Food for dogs already had.
Dogs on tethers.....just kidding.
I think this might be a long night but we feel ready. Some charts show us getting 50mph winds which is not a hurricane but can do some damage to trees etc.

Just opened my first cerveza...I deserve it.

Whats happening in La Paz...Comi, Tucker, anyone?

comitan - 9-30-2005 at 05:15 PM

Judy

Dark and threatening, waiting, always prepared!!!!!!!!

Oh found a site today that listed all of the names of the hurricanes for this year, if they were to get to the W's the names is wiley(mine) veeeery interesting hope they don't get to me.

[Edited on 10-1-2005 by comitan]

mike odell - 9-30-2005 at 05:23 PM

:wow:

Otis!!

mike odell - 9-30-2005 at 05:40 PM

Mr Otis seems to missing us!!
Right now it's 6:45 pm, and winds are calm and no rain here in La Ribera! But it is overcast and threatening, so will see what the night brings. Last night had about 1 inch of rain, much needed, winds were not an issue.
This should be a last Hurrah for us here in Baja Sur,as far as rain until Dec or so.
Sorry this report lacks humor, but some folks don't like the way I post stuff!
Find falt if you can,Dave!!
Mike

mr. Otis

mike odell - 9-30-2005 at 05:58 PM

Sent my boat to Marina Palmira about 11 am today, with Capt , and crew, They just reported, back, no problem with waves or winds, it's now 7 pm. All Palmas, Rancho Leonero
boats, are in safe harbor in La Paz. Some private boats, that made the trip from here, are also safe,and are out of harms way.
This should be are last storm of the season, Maybe!!

Otis update!

mike odell - 9-30-2005 at 06:06 PM

Just talked to Osprey, He is not worried, just Hunkered down til morning, as are we! :lol:

This storm is not like Juliet! So Far!

David K - 9-30-2005 at 06:08 PM

Looks like Scorpion Bay is near the path! Hey San Juanico... que pasa???
[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP15/refresh/EP1505W+gif/204543W_sm.gif[/img]

bajajudy - 9-30-2005 at 07:05 PM

79 on my porch.
Partly cloudy skies.
Winds 10-15 if that
No rain
But look at this.....

I made a nice dinner for Senor Otis. Recipes to follow.

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeswest/pacific/color/0000_latest...

bajajudy - 9-30-2005 at 07:15 PM

I forgot....Gracias Mexray for that link...terrific picture. I dont much care for what it shows though.
Wandering around looking for information, I found this loop.

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeswest/pacific/color/0000_latest...

If the link doesnt work try this second one. And look for Visible/Ir java movie and you will learn something about the formation of hurricanes. Amazing stuff

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/eastpac/storm/st...

rts551 - 9-30-2005 at 07:20 PM

Whistler - looks like we are going to get a least part of it ... if not the whole thing.

Maybe, just maybe...

Mexray - 9-30-2005 at 11:28 PM

...Baja will get only a 'taste', and not the whole enchilada...

a close look at this 'loop' image, and some others I have viewed tonight shows a very slight 'Left Turn' by Otis, making his track veer just a bit to the West, or away from Baja.

Only the next few hours will tell for sure, as those devils have a mind of their own...but maybe there's room for hope.

Take a look...

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/re...

Sharksbaja - 10-1-2005 at 12:18 AM

It does seem like it's unheeded path is offshore. Let's hope so.

bajajudy - 10-1-2005 at 06:21 AM

Pretty quiet night here....
A bit of wind and a bit of rain but nothing serious.
Kinda dark and gusting to about 15 but spots of blue sky in places.
He does seem to have stalled some. Hope he moves on...out to sea would be nice.

vandenberg - 10-1-2005 at 06:25 AM

JUDY & MEXRAY

Great links , thanks !!!

bajajudy - 10-1-2005 at 08:13 AM

Just back from the beach.
3/4 sky black as could be. 1/4 partly cloudy and in the east.
Seas confused and not big. Water warm.
Wind cool when out of the S or SW, warm when out of the east. Very strange. One minute you are sweating, the next you have goosebumps.
Certainly looks like its raining on the pacific side probably San Lucas too. None here but it just got dark all around.
I see that a Hurricane Warning has been issued>

0
WTPZ35 KNHC 011457
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...OTIS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.

AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 205 MILES... 325 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH OTIS OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. HEAVY AMOUNTS COULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD TROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...21.9 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

Great reporting Judy .

Keri - 10-1-2005 at 08:33 AM

Thanks for keeping us informed. Keep safe,k

Tucker - 10-1-2005 at 08:39 AM

So far, just another cloudy day, no wind no rain - - - -yet!

Marie-Rose - 10-1-2005 at 08:51 AM

Apparently raining on/off inTodos. Aprox. 1 in in the last 24 hours. Light wind.

Oh No Otis

MrBillM - 10-1-2005 at 10:06 AM

Sitting here in perfect weather, it's hard to picture how bad it could become in just a few days. I hadn't planned on a trip North for another couple of weeks, but we'll probably shut down and pack up this weekend so that we can head out Monday.

Better safe than sorry, so they say.

bajalou - 10-1-2005 at 10:39 AM

I understand all that MrBillM. A great day today as they all have been recently. Have to go to SD on Mon. and will be watching to see whats going on here before returning. Hopefully, a little rain light winds and then back to the perfect days.

:cool:

comitan - 10-1-2005 at 11:17 AM

Otis

Where are you? Sitting here in La Paz, its a beautiful day. Just hopeing for a little more rain. I'm a little concerned that sitting out there too long you will change your mind and come this way, come what may.

Pescador - 10-1-2005 at 11:47 AM

Well, in San Lucas Cove we are watching really black skies and the water at KSan Marcos island was really rough coming in from the south. Still watching to see whether or not I pull the boat. The police from town came by and suggested that would be a good idea.
Still watching. :?:

bajaden - 10-1-2005 at 12:00 PM

Great reporting Judy. Are you still heading north? Your still on for a cervesa or two if Im not up to my eye balls in water.

bajajudy - 10-1-2005 at 12:15 PM

Bajaden
We were supposed to have left yesterday but..........
My mother in law comes soon so we may have to wait until after she leaves. I am antsy to get back on the road and do some serious camping but not with Otis.
And dont worry! I wont forget the beer.....never

Still dark and some wind here.
Blue skies peeking through to the east.
I heard that it was pouring in San Lucas a few hours back but nary a drop here. I, like comitan, would like a little bit more rain.
Every time I look at the sat maps, I cant believe that its not raining here.

comitan - 10-1-2005 at 12:20 PM

Judy

Here's the water vapor, better to know for rain.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/WV/20.jpg

bajajudy - 10-1-2005 at 12:24 PM

Yea it still looks like it should be raining!

comitan - 10-1-2005 at 12:45 PM

Judy

You have to have the blue for good rain. It doesn't look promising.

rts551 - 10-1-2005 at 02:29 PM

without posting the whole thing. As of 2 PM Otis seems to be weakening (85-95 MPH) and is moving very slowly. Current forecasts keep it in the Pacific until Monday moving across between Bahia San Ignacio and San Juanico. But the forecasts are very eratic

all or nothing

Sharksbaja - 10-1-2005 at 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by comitan
Judy

Here's the water vapor, better to know for rain.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/WV/20.jpg

Looks like it's either heavy rain or zero rain and nothing in between. Strange, but we're used to the whole range and received 3.5 inches yesterday....... :lol:

Was the driest Sept. up until then.

otis

tehag - 10-1-2005 at 03:04 PM

Lots of cloud in Loreto. Some fairly heavy rain Sat AM south a little from town. Light rain in town. Some lightning in the hills and over Carmen Is.

Eli - 10-1-2005 at 04:52 PM

Thanks Ya'all for keeping those of us out of the loop abreast as to how Otis is moving along. Comitan's comment about come what may leaves me wondering if Southern Baja is off the hook yet. Hope so, just a few more weeks and the season is over.

Tucker - 10-1-2005 at 05:36 PM

Looks to me like ol' Otis is going to sit right there and screw himself into the ocean floor. There couldn't be much heat left in that water.

rts551 - 10-1-2005 at 05:57 PM

Tucker

or.... do a dump on land!

bajajudy - 10-1-2005 at 06:15 PM

My weather hasnt changed in almost 12 hours.
Dark clouds, a little wind(<10)
Always looking like rain.....much cooler!!!!!!!!!!!
Ok!
You guys up the peninsula keep letting us know whats happening with you.
I think that I have it right now.

[Edited on 10-2-2005 by bajajudy] :cool:

[Edited on 10-2-2005 by bajajudy]

rts551 - 10-1-2005 at 06:31 PM

Judy

Weird weather but looks like the outer bands could still give you some more.... especailly since it seems to want to stay south... Keep up the posts.

comitan - 10-1-2005 at 06:39 PM

It looks as if Otis is going to give any rain here in La Paz, its going to have to turn east and thats not in the prediction.

bajalera - 10-1-2005 at 08:21 PM

Wherever Otis may go, local people are paying more attention than usual--probably because of Katrina and TV. For the past two days, half the world has been buying groceries and water at Sorianas and CCC.

Bedman - 10-1-2005 at 11:34 PM

This Article from AOL ..........

Updated: 10:54 PM EDT
Hurricane Otis Sparks Flooding in Western Mexico
Two New Storms Form in Atlantic and Could Become Stan, Tammy

CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico (Oct. 1) - Hurricane Otis's outer bands lashed the coast of western Mexico on Saturday as the storm crawled toward the Baja California peninsula, forcing hundreds of families to evacuate their homes and flooding roads in this resort city.
Guillermo Arias, AP
Tourists sit in a marina as Hurricane Otis gets closer to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

The Category 1 hurricane weakened but still had winds up to 85 mph as it headed northward off the coast of Baja. Forecasters expected Otis to skirt past Cabo San Lucas, and move ashore along a sparsely populated stretch of desert far north of here as early as Sunday evening, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

Narciso Agundez, governor of Baja California Sur state, ordered emergency personnel to the community of Comondu, as well as tourist-friendly Lorteo and Mulege, closer to where the center of Otis was likely to hit land. He asked soldiers to help evacuate the islands of Magdalena and Margarita, off the coast of Comondu.

Periods of strong winds and heavy rains were mixed with mostly sunny skies over Cabo San Lucas, giving way to light cloud cover at night. Clam prevailed with the knowledge that Otis stayed out to sea until it was past this area.

Mayor Luis Armando Diaz led voluntary evacuations from the city's poor outskirts, where many homes are little more than wood and metal shacks.

About 700 families had evacuated to shelters in Cabo San Lucas and that more than 200 families evacuated in San Jose del Cabo, a nearby tourist destination to the northeast. There were also small-scale evacuations in Miraflores and Santiago, slightly further north.

But many of those in shelters were expected to return to their homes soon, as the widespread flooding they were bracing for never came.

Mexico declared a state of emergency to help cope with heavy rains in five communities, including Cabo San Lucas.

A hurricane warning was in effect for much of the peninsula's Pacific Coast, from Agua Blanca north to Puerto San Andresito and officials issued a tropical storm watch further northward.

Extended forecasts showed the storm weakening as it moved across the sparsely populated Baja California peninsula, then bringing rains to parts of western Texas and southern Arizona by early next week.

Otis was the 15th Pacific storm of the season. Unlike powerful Atlantic storms such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Pacific hurricanes tend to do less damage because they make landfall less frequently.
NOAA

Like their Atlantic counterparts, Pacific storms are given names that correspond to the alphabet.

Also Saturday, the season's 20th tropical depression was drifting toward Mexico in the western Caribbean, prompting the government to issue tropical storm warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula.

The depression was located about 125 miles east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico Saturday, and about 110 miles southeast of Cozumel, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. The system had sustained winds of 30 mph, and was moving to the west-northwest near 6 mph.

The storm could become a named tropical storm, with winds above 39 mph, before it makes its expected landfall on the eastern Yucatan as late as Sunday.

Rainfall accumulations from 5 to 10 inches over the Yucatan and northern Belize were expected, forecasters said.

A tropical storm warning was issued in the Yucatan from Punta Gruesa north to Cabo Catoche, while a tropical storm watch was issued from Cabo Catoche west to Campeche. A warning means that storm conditions were expected within 24 hours, while a watch means they are expected within 36 hours.

Meanwhile, tropical depression 19 remained no threat to land as it organized far out in the Atlantic.

The depression was about 665 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands Saturday and was moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph, and the depression could become a tropical storm later Saturday or Sunday.

Either depression would be named Tropical Storm Stan if it strengthens into the 18th named system of the season. The 19th named storm of the season would be named Tammy.

This is the fourth-busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record-keeping started in 1851. The record for tropical storms in one year is 21, set in 1933. The hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

10-01-05 22:33 EDT

BEDMAN

Less of a threat

Sharksbaja - 10-1-2005 at 11:44 PM

Looks like it's falling apart.

Hurricane Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 16a

Statement as of 11:00 PM PDT on October 01, 2005

...Otis weakening...northward drift continues...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula from Agua Blanca northward to Puerto San
Andresito. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula...on either side
of the Hurricane Warning area...from Punta Abreojos southward to
north of Puerto San Andresito...and from south of Agua Blanca
southward to Cabo San Lucas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of California
coast of the Baja California peninsula from San Evaristo southward
to east of Cabo San Lucas.

A tropical storm watch is in effect watch along the Gulf of
California coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of San
Evaristo northward to mulege.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area... generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area... generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere near both coasts of the central and northern
Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the progress of
Otis. Watches or warnings could be extended northward on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM PDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Otis was located near
latitude 22.2 north... longitude 112.0 west or about 140 miles...
225 km... west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and
about 180 miles... 290 km...south of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico.

Otis has moved little during the past few hours but is forecast to
move toward the north-northwest within the next 24 hours. The
center of Otis is currently forecast to remain west of southern
Baja California during the next 24 hours. However... any motion to
the right of the forecast track could bring the center near
southern Baja California on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24
hours...but Otis could still reach the Baja California peninsula
as a hurricane.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb...29.03 inches.

Otis is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6
inches over the central and southern Baja Peninsula through
Monday...with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over
the higher terrain of the central Baja Peninsula. Rainfall
associated with Otis could affect the southwestern U.S. Early next
week.

Repeating the 11 PM PDT position...22.2 N...112.0 W.
Movement...nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
2 am PDT.

Otis tropical storm again!

bajajudy - 10-2-2005 at 07:02 AM

Looks like he is going away slowly. Amazing that he still hasnt gotten north of me.
Still dark clouds in the west and looking like rain.
Bright blue skies in the east.
Very little wind.
Hasta la vista Otis.

bajaden - 10-2-2005 at 08:35 AM

Its cloudy here in Mulege and dead calm at the moment. I did get hit with one drop of rain yesterday. Tried to frame it, but wasn't quick enough. Hope I'm not eating my words tomorrow. I'm near the river. Place got flooded last time.

Think I'll go fishing........

losfrailes - 10-2-2005 at 08:47 AM

As of 8 am, been degraded from Hurricane to Tropical Storm. Winds dropped to 65.

Good news!

comitan - 10-2-2005 at 09:01 AM

The latest satellite images looks like its breaking up and is moving eastward toward La Paz, hopefully some rain.

Like my old uncle Otis he has everyone confused!

Tucker - 10-2-2005 at 09:33 AM

rain

mulege marv - 10-2-2005 at 09:53 AM

well it just started raining lightly in mulege, no wind though which is good !

The devil is beating his wife

bajajudy - 10-2-2005 at 10:04 AM

That is an old southern saying for when the sun is out and it is raining.
Sat here for 2 days with the most ominous skies and now when the sun is out, finally un poco de rain. Coming out of the south over the water. Interesting.

Bring on the Rain

MrBillM - 10-2-2005 at 10:13 AM

Now that I know I don't have to pack up the wife and kids (dogs), I am looking forward to some decent rain so it probably won't come this way. My trees and plants are looking pretty bad.

Tucker - 10-2-2005 at 10:35 AM

http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_story/0,3566,170997,...

Otis Causes Mexico Floods

Sunday, October 02, 2005

CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico ? The outer bands of Hurricane Otis (search) lashed the coast of western Mexico Saturday as the storm crawled toward the Baja California peninsula, forcing hundreds of families to evacuate their homes and flooding roads in this resort city.

Weakening somewhat, the storm was still expected to come ashore Sunday night at hurricane strength. It was churning about 135 miles west of the southern tip of Baja (search) with sustained winds of 85 mph late Saturday night, drifting north at about 3 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters expect Otis to skirt Cabo San Lucas (search) and move ashore along a sparsely populated stretch of desert far north of here.

The Category 1 hurricane was expected to produce rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over the central and southern peninsula through Monday, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over the higher terrain of central Baja, the hurricane center said.

Rainfall associated with Otis could affect the southwestern United States early next week, forecasters said.

Narciso Agundez, governor of Baja California Sur state, ordered emergency personnel to the community of Comondu, as well as tourist-friendly Lorteo and Mulege, closer to where the center of Otis was likely to hit land. He asked soldiers to help evacuate the islands of Magdalena and Margarita, off the coast of Comondu.

Periods of strong winds and heavy rains were mixed with mostly sunny skies over Cabo San Lucas, giving way to light cloud cover at night.

Mayor Luis Armando Diaz led voluntary evacuations from the city's poor outskirts, where many homes are little more than wood and metal shacks.

About 700 families evacuated to shelters in Cabo San Lucas and more than 200 families evacuated in San Jose del Cabo, a nearby tourist destination to the northeast. There were also small-scale evacuations in Miraflores and Santiago, slightly further north.

But many of those in shelters were expected to return to their homes soon, as the widespread flooding they were bracing for never came.

Mexico declared a state of emergency to help cope with heavy rains in five communities, including Cabo San Lucas.

A hurricane warning was in effect for much of the peninsula's Pacific Coast, from Agua Blanca north to Puerto San Andresito and officials issued a tropical storm watch further northward.

Extended forecasts showed the storm weakening as it moved across the sparsely populated Baja California peninsula, then bringing rains to parts of western Texas and southern Arizona by early next week.

Otis was the 15th Pacific storm of the season. Unlike powerful Atlantic storms such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Pacific hurricanes tend to do less damage because they make landfall less frequently.

Like their Atlantic counterparts, Pacific storms are given names that correspond to the alphabet.

Also Saturday, the season's 20th tropical depression was drifting toward Mexico in the western Caribbean, prompting the government to issue tropical storm warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula.

The depression was centered 80 miles east of Tulum and about 95 miles east of Tulum and about 95 miles southeast of Cozumel, according to the U.S. hurricane center. It was moving west at 6 mph.

The system had sustained winds of 30 mph, but could become a named tropical storm before making its expected landfall on the eastern Yucatan later Saturday or Sunday, according to the center.

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Tucker - 10-2-2005 at 08:49 PM

Otis is weakening rapidly, Longwang peters out near Hong Kong.

not much

mulege marv - 10-3-2005 at 06:06 AM

otis has left the building !
:lol:

light rain, partly cloudy, light breeze.

spoke to soon just had a downpour !

[Edited on 10-3-2005 by mulege marv]

Loreto Mon AM

tehag - 10-3-2005 at 06:11 AM

Light rain, blustery, no lightning at 7am Loreto, Monday 10/03.

Hurricane Otis Damage in Southern Baja...

BajaRescue - 10-3-2005 at 06:45 AM

In light of the extensive damage caused by Hurricane Katrina, the near miss of Hurricane Otis on Southern Baja this weekend is a reminder that we are prone to very destructive weather here as well.

The attached photo shows the damage caused to a home when Otis passed just off the coast of Todos Santos. It really makes you cherish what you have, and reminds us not to take life for granted!!!
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[Edited on 10-3-2005 by BajaRescue]

bajaden - 10-3-2005 at 06:48 AM

Light rain at the moment. Had a pretty good thunder shower about an hour ago. 7:45 am Monday...

wornout - 10-3-2005 at 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by BajaRescue
In light of the extensive damage caused by Hurricane Katrina, the near miss of Hurricane Otis on Southern Baja this weekend is a reminder that we are prone to very destructive weather here as well.

The attached photo shows the damage caused to a home when Otis passed just off the coast of Todos Santos. It really makes you cherish what you have, and reminds us not to take life for granted!!!
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[Edited on 10-3-2005 by BajaRescue]

Looks like that plastic lawn chair caught hell. We have switched to the metal type just to be safe.

bajalera - 10-3-2005 at 09:22 AM

Bright and sunny in La Paz. So is appears that like that old song, "Mr. Otis regrets he's unable to arrive today, madam."

Otis Gone Awry

MrBillM - 10-3-2005 at 09:35 AM

The latest forecast (Quija Board Guess ?) from NOAA no longer shows the remains of Otis crossing from the Pacific. It now looks like we won't even get any rain from the system here in Northern Baja.

It is astounding how frequently WRONG that NOAA is with their forecasts. You have to wonder why the forecasts for the Atlantic can be so much better than those in the Pacific.

Unfortunately, back in 97, the forecast for Nora was pretty close so we have to continue to pay attention to their guesses.

Oh well, another perfect day in Percebu. 69 degrees when I got up this a.m., although it's warming fast and will probably top out around 90 again. Water temp around 86. Time to go back to watering plants since nature is not going to help out.

Weather harder to predict on west coast-----

Barry A. - 10-3-2005 at 11:18 AM

I am sticking my neck out here, but I think that the reason that NOAA is not as accurate in the western Pacific on aberations like Hurricanes is because of the prevailing winds, the variety of weather systems effecting things, and mainly the lack of weather stations out in the wide Pacific Ocean.

They do their best with what they have to work with-----.

Just my half-learned observations, and memory of what I have been taught in my long-ago College days, and as a pilot.

BajaRescue

mulege marv - 10-3-2005 at 11:27 AM

BajaRescue that was funny right there !

Dave - 10-3-2005 at 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajalera
So is appears that like that old song, "Mr. Otis regrets he's unable to arrive today, madam."

Cole Porter just turned over.

Yep Marv

jrbaja - 10-3-2005 at 08:49 PM

I'm glad you said something. I waited for the picture to download. :lol:

I understand that Hermosillo got a bunch of rain this weekend.