BajaNomad

Storm "Lane" (13-E) has formed

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bajajudy - 9-13-2006 at 04:57 PM

[Edited on 9-14-2006 by BajaNomad]

13-E.gif - 46kB

Bruce R Leech - 9-13-2006 at 06:05 PM

that is just no fair go away

notice the change in Me sense before John:o:O

Bruce R Leech - 9-13-2006 at 06:27 PM

OK Hose A your on If you guys up there will allow me in

bajabound2005 - 9-13-2006 at 06:30 PM

HOSE A -- YOU'RE BACK..! OLE!

comitan - 9-13-2006 at 06:31 PM

I'm sure glad I wasn't the one that brought that up.

Diver - 9-13-2006 at 06:42 PM

Bummer !

GFDL forcast computer model shows it hitting Baja again ! :(

I hope they weren't the ones that guessed right last time !?
.

longlegsinlapaz - 9-13-2006 at 06:52 PM

Damn!!! I could have lived the next 2-3 weeks without hearing that one Judy!! I have to move within the next 2 weeks! My sale closes in 3 weeks!

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhh......Bruce, could you please pray for it NOT to hit the Baja? Just tell it to ignore the water temps in the Sea of Cortez & hang an abrupt left...NOW!! Por favor?

Bruce R Leech - 9-13-2006 at 06:58 PM

longlegsinlapaz I'm already packing to evacuate I'm going to set this one out in Ensenada. but I will say the prayer.

QuePasaBaja - 9-13-2006 at 07:21 PM

Having lived in Florida most of my life, I have learned one thing about weather men. They have no idea what is going to happen.

Cross your fingers, and get your surfboard ready. And keep some sun tan lotion in one pocket.

Al G - 9-13-2006 at 08:39 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by comitan
I'm sure glad I wasn't the one that brought that up.


Me Too!!

Al G - 9-13-2006 at 08:58 PM

This thing looks bigger then John!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200613_sat.h...

[Edited on 9-14-2006 by Al G]

hurricane info link

Johnny - 9-13-2006 at 09:33 PM

info is also always posted at nhc.noaa.gov, also. Please blow away #13 E! We don't like your kind around here.

13 E

Johnny - 9-13-2006 at 10:49 PM

I am concerned. This is the 3rd time the # 13 came up today for me. Please wish this one away, turn your head to the south and blow while thinking good thoughts for Baja. Sounds silly but it is so easy, so just do it. K?
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 140251
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006

..DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME SOON...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF LAZARO Card##AS MEXICO AND ABOUT 210
MILES...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME
SOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN MARCOS THROUGH ACAPULCO TO
TECOMAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...102.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

FARASHA - 9-13-2006 at 11:28 PM



UH OH, HOPE NOT !!!

lame Lane

Johnny - 9-14-2006 at 12:45 AM

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 140555
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006

...TWELFTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF LAZARO Card##AS MEXICO AND ABOUT 210
MILES...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN MARCOS THROUGH ACAPULCO TO
TECOMAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...102.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

FARASHA - 9-14-2006 at 01:39 AM



doesn't look good for BCS.
Bruce when are you leaving Mulege?
So we can tell E 13 when and where to go!
Ensenada should have their share too :P

I see it coming - another weekend with glued eyes to the screen of the PC's/ LT's, of the BN's

FARASHA - 9-14-2006 at 02:23 AM

sanfelipebob - 9-14-2006 at 05:47 AM

Ringout the towels, here we go again !!! Be safe

Cypress - 9-14-2006 at 06:41 AM

Expect everybody down in the Baja Sur area is keeping an eye on this thing.:wow:

Bruce R Leech - 9-14-2006 at 06:50 AM

this is not looking good I hope every one is taking action and forming a plan for there safety. now is the time when you have a few days notice to get things ready and stock up on supply's.if it doesn't come this way you don't lose anything, you just eat caned food for a while.

bajajudy - 9-14-2006 at 06:52 AM

Can you say.....grab your shorts
:wow:
So far this one is mild compared to John but who knows what tomorrow will bring:rolleyes:

13E14.gif - 34kB

TMW - 9-14-2006 at 07:21 AM

It only needs to unload rain in the mountains to be bad. Everyone be carefull.

QuePasaBaja - 9-14-2006 at 08:45 AM

Ask the admin to change the title of this thread, I got in here by clicking the wrong wone. I read then name , and thought that you wanted someone by the name of Lane.

Some may not know the name of the storm yet

"LANE" headed for Baja

ElGato - 9-14-2006 at 10:25 AM

:no: New storm Lane headed for Baja. Expected to become hurricane later today or tomorrow. Projected to hit Los Cabos on Sunday:!:

BajaNews - 9-14-2006 at 11:10 AM

TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006

...LANE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...150 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF LANE OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
LAND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...17.8 N...104.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

BajaNews - 9-14-2006 at 11:36 AM

As of 11am Thursday:

lane.11aTh.gif - 14kB

cat127 - 9-14-2006 at 11:43 AM

Hey WHY YOU GUYS IN BAJA TAKING ALL OUR STORMS????

Havent had but one little Dibble of storm this whole season cuz they moved up not left.... building boom is slowing down here so send a storm our way! LOL!

Bruce R Leech - 9-14-2006 at 12:35 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by cat127
Hey WHY YOU GUYS IN BAJA TAKING ALL OUR STORMS????

Havent had but one little Dibble of storm this whole season cuz they moved up not left.... building boom is slowing down here so send a storm our way! LOL!


be careful of what you ask for . :O

you can have the rest of the storms this season:lol:

Tropical Storm Lane heads toward Baja

BajaNews - 9-14-2006 at 12:38 PM

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4186974.html

MEXICO CITY — Tropical Storm Lane lashed Mexico's Pacific Coast with winds and rain Thursday, flooding streets in Acapulco before setting on a course to hit the hurricane-battered tip of the Baja California peninsula...

...Lane dumped rain and whipped up waves in Acapulco, where authorities closed the port to small boats. Streets were covered in up to 16 inches of water _ including the beachside Costera Miguel Aleman, which runs past many of the resort's luxury hotels.

There was also some flooding at the Acapulco airport, although service was not interrupted.

Forecasters warned up to 10 inches of rain were possible.

The storm was following the same path as Hurricane John, which raked Mexico's Pacific Coast early this month before slamming into Baja California, killing five people.

Al G - 9-14-2006 at 01:34 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200613_model...
What a dramatic change from yesterday.
GFDL has is ripping the mainland coast now.

Hook - 9-14-2006 at 01:36 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by BajaNews
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4186974.html

MEXICO CITY — Tropical Storm Lane lashed Mexico's Pacific Coast with winds and rain Thursday, flooding streets in Acapulco before setting on a course to hit the hurricane-battered tip of the Baja California peninsula...

...Lane dumped rain and whipped up waves in Acapulco, where authorities closed the port to small boats. Streets were covered in up to 16 inches of water _ including the beachside Costera Miguel Aleman, which runs past many of the resort's luxury hotels.

There was also some flooding at the Acapulco airport, although service was not interrupted.

Forecasters warned up to 10 inches of rain were possible.

The storm was following the same path as Hurricane John, which raked Mexico's Pacific Coast early this month before slamming into Baja California, killing five people.


Outside of Mr. Clarke, who and where were the other four confirmed fatalities from John.

DianaT - 9-14-2006 at 01:45 PM

CNN article saying five killed by Hurricane John

Still hoping Lane changes directions and heads west.

[Edited on 9-14-2006 by jdtrotter]

Sharksbaja - 9-14-2006 at 02:24 PM

note the band of moisture flowing east into the storm.

Looks like Los Cabos will get it this time. Pray for Baja.


13-E Visible loop

Bruce R Leech - 9-14-2006 at 02:25 PM

scary

BajaNews - 9-14-2006 at 02:27 PM

Infrared Loop - as of 1pm today (Thursday):

ani.lane.1pTh.gif - 47kB

Johnny - 9-14-2006 at 02:30 PM

Anyone who can get word to the remote areas please do so now.
Below is the 2pm update from nhc.noaa.gov. Viva Baja.

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 142040
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006

...LANE STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM LAZARO Card##AS TO
EL ROBLITO...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS.

AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORREIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 460 MILES
...740 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE
WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
LANE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LANE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...105.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BajaNews - 9-14-2006 at 02:50 PM

3-day predicted path & wind speed, as of 2pm Thursday:

lane.2pTh.gif - 15kB

Bruce R Leech - 9-14-2006 at 03:52 PM

it is starting to look more and more like John allover again:o

bajarich - 9-14-2006 at 05:18 PM

It reminds me of Marty comming right on the heals of Ignacio--only worse!

Shimmer - 9-14-2006 at 08:06 PM

Here is the latest 8 pm update... Baja Sur in Hurricane Watch

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 150243
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006

...LANE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE...

AT 800 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO Card##AS NORTHWARD
TO EL ROBLITO...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD
TO CABO CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 430
MILES...690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE
WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND LANE IS FORECAST TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.4 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$

cat127 - 9-14-2006 at 08:27 PM

Hey Bruce no worries! The media here does a hurricane preparedness thing at least once a week... got the genny ready, canned goods & pet food on hand... flashlights and cell phones charged....... everyday during the season. Oh yah and plenty tequila - it's medicinal.

I worry for y'all's safety :!:

-Cat

capt. mike - 9-15-2006 at 04:57 AM

i had planned flights to Guaymas and Mulege Fri/sat. We are going to cancel till 30th i guess.
from the BBP which got my attention:

Hurricane Lane forecast to land mid Baja - 9/14/2006


The Red Cross called us today to indicate that they are suspending all relief efforts in Baja and evacuating all their personal to the mainland because of the danger of Hurricane Lane. It is possible that we will be starting all over again.

They indicate that it is forecast to be Cat II when it makes land at Cabo San Lucas and then is forcast to continue up past La Paz and Loreto where at some point, it will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

What they are really saying is that the path is following exactly as John did but with more intensity.

They indicate that Mulege will experience heavy rain starting Saturday afternoon and continue until the depression passes or dies out.

They have requested that I have people on alert to help by mid-week next week including fixed wings and helicopters.

And Karaen and I have been purchasing things from donations. This includes soap, towels, tarps, cooking utensils, tooth brushes, and a lot more. I will post a complete list. Donations at our office are up to US$1,400.

We have been talking to Marcos at the Serenidad and he indicates that the town was alerted about the storm at about noon today, he also indicated that the town is very nervous and hopes they can get through another one....

We will do another Alert when ready and hope to give all that help advance notice.

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2006 at 05:03 AM

Good news they continue to move the proposed track of Lane to the east.

the latest showed the center of Lane not even touching Baja. of course there will still be some rain and wind in some areas but it is looking good

Bob and Susan - 9-15-2006 at 05:58 AM

my stuff shows it will be right on top of you sunday...

lane.JPG - 24kB

Forecasts

MrBillM - 9-15-2006 at 05:59 AM

More than anything else, it shows the abject futility of accepting any of these EARLY forecasts as being meaningful. Tomorrow's may show it going in an entirely different direction and still end up being wrong.

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2006 at 06:02 AM

I am going to stick my neck out and make a predication that is contrary to all the models at this time . if you study the satellite image loop there is a strong upper level west to east wind that is really keeping Lane from getting organized. while Lane try to maintain counter clockwise rotation and north west movement these westerly winds are tearing the leading edge of Lane of and pushing it to the east. these are very god signs in my opinion that the storm will weaken and blow in to mainland Mexico.

please don't anyone change you emergency preparedness based on my observations.

Dueling Forecasts

MrBillM - 9-15-2006 at 06:18 AM

Well, there you go.

Nothing could make the point better. NOAA's track and Bob and Susan's for the same time period (2am Friday) show a different track. Flip a coin, pick straws, roll dice. Any of those are as likely to produce an accurate result.

The upper level winds and the High Pressure centered over Mainland Mexico were supposed to make JOHN take the Westward hook which never developed.

Quien Sabe ?

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2006 at 06:20 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by MrBillM
Well, there you go.

Nothing could make the point better. NOAA's track and Bob and Susan's for the same time period (2am Friday) show a different track. Flip a coin, pick straws, roll dice. Any of those are as likely to produce an accurate result.

The upper level winds and the High Pressure centered over Mainland Mexico were supposed to make JOHN take the Westward hook which never developed.

Quien Sabe ?


it is like betting on what a cat is going to do next:lol:

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2006 at 06:49 AM

if you look closely to the sat. loop that patch of clouds to the west of lane is starting to rotate in a counter clockwise direction and is robing significant energy from Lane. it could form another tropical depression.

capt. mike - 9-15-2006 at 07:20 AM

this doesn't look good:

http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/centralamerica/index_l...

about to pummel cabo?

Bajaboy - 9-15-2006 at 07:32 AM

Quote:
Quote:


it is like betting on what a cat is going to do next:lol:


I'll bet my cat is going to eat a bit and then nap all day:tumble:

Wishing the best for our friends down south.

Zac

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 07:54 AM

TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...LANE ALMOST A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO
LA CRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
LATER TODAY.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH
OF LA CRUZ TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS SOUTH OF MANZANILLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 325
MILES...525 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LANE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.7 N...106.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

JZ - 9-15-2006 at 09:00 AM

It is heading straight for San Carlos, Sonora!

"THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS LANE UP THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 72 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND LESS WEAKENING THEREAFTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE."

Bob and Susan - 9-15-2006 at 09:03 AM

bruce may be correct for a change ...

the latest...

storm.JPG - 22kB

3-day wind and direction prediction as of 8am Friday

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 09:04 AM



lane.8aFr.gif - 16kB

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2006 at 09:34 AM

every 12 hours they are moving the track more to the east and this is only good news for most of us in Baja Sur.

I think It will continue to go that way and when it gets a Little further to the north the upper level wind Sherie is going to weaken Lane significantly.

toneart - 9-15-2006 at 09:51 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
these westerly winds are tearing the leading edge of Lane of and pushing it to the east. these are very god signs in my opinion that the storm will weaken and blow in to mainland Mexico.

"God signs" indeed!:O

bajajudy

capitolkat - 9-15-2006 at 09:54 AM

Judy I was in San Jose on Wednesday and saw the jetty's for the marina and they have really added so much stone it seems like it might work. there is a new development-maybe two new developments to the east - one a fractional ownership called La Serena or something like that. Are you close to that locale?? it appears that lots of water came down that arroyo from John and some rains in the hills on Friday a week ago.

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 09:58 AM

Tropical Storm Lane nears hurricane strength

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 10:11 AM

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.h...

by Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Lane continues to intensify just off the Mexican Pacific Ocean coast near Puerto Vallarta. Animations of microwave satellite images show that Lane is moving parallel to the coast, about 60 miles offshore, remarkably close to the track of Hurricane John earlier this month. Lane is over warm waters and under light shear, and and has the potential to become a hurricane later today. The only inhibiting factor for intensification might be the storm's close proximity to land. Lane will be drawing in dry continental air from mainland Mexico that might slow down the intensification process. Hurricane John was able to intensify into a Category 4 hurricane under virtually the same conditions, but Lane is a much smaller storm, and might be more seriously impacted by interaction with land. If Lane can avoid passing too close to land areas, she may have enough time to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane before landfall. The people of Baja, who are still cleaning up the damage and repairing the roads washed out by Hurricane John, are probably not too happy to see Lane approaching on Cabo San Lucas radar.

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2006 at 10:17 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JZ
It is heading straight for San Carlos, Sonora!



I think lane is going inland way south of San Carolos. I may end up with egg all over my face but I just cant see where these Models are taking all of the deferent wind layers in to account. I am far from being any kind of an expert but I call um as I see them.:lol:

[Edited on 9-16-2006 by Bruce R Leech]

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 10:18 AM

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN
EARLIER. LANE IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS
MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE
MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED
AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR 36-48 HR...THEN STARTS TO DIVERGE BETWEEN A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN TO 3 KT AFTER 48 HR
IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD AND THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.

LANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 30C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS LONG
AS THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO TANGLES UP WITH LAND. INDEED...THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A 43 PRESENT
CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS LANE UP THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH 72 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND LESS WEAKENING THEREAFTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS. THERE IS TWO SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
FORECAST. THE FIRST IS THAT LANE HAS A SMALL CENTRAL CORE...AND
COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THEN EXPECTED. THE SECOND
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION...AS THE INTENSITY COULD
WELL BE LESS THAN FORECAST IF LANE VEERS OFF THE FORECAST TRACK.

IF LANE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.
HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ONSHORE.

bajajudy - 9-15-2006 at 11:01 AM

Kat
Yes they have put unbelievable amounts of rocks on the breakwaters. We got very little surge from John and will probably get less from Lane, if he/she continues on the current track.

I live on the road into La Playa. I walk by La Serena every morning with my dogs...a big hurricane with a high surge and that place will be toast. Built in the dunes too close to the beach. They had a good bit of erosion around the complex from John.

The road will undoubtably go out again. It looks like they may have started some work on the bridge. There is a crew of about 40 workers down by the arroyo making what looks like iron columns for bridge footings.

JESSE - 9-15-2006 at 02:36 PM

Lane is a Hurricane, my early prediction is that it turns into the sea of cortez and hits baja at a category 2 or perhaps 3. Anybody from the Eastcape to Mulege should prepare.

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 02:47 PM

HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...LANE BECOMES A HURRICANE WITH MORE STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND FROM EL
ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
65 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF LANE NEAR THE ISLAS MARIAS TONIGHT. WHILE THE CENTER
OF LANE IS FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 985
MB...29.09 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...106.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

lane.2pFr.gif - 15kB

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 02:50 PM

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT LANE HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE
PRESSURE FELL FROM 989 TO 985 MB IN ABOUT 90 MIN...ALONG WITH
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
EYEWALL. THE EYE...WHICH IS MAKING OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS 8-9 N MI WIDE. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT. THIS SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB
AND 65 KT FROM SAB.

LANE HAS TURNED RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 340/8. THIS TURN WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE
NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR 36 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
THE GFDL IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...
BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 30 HR. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND
CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH
GRADUAL DECELERATION. THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
IN 60-72 HR. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE
COAST EARLIER.

IF LANE WERE WELL AWAY FROM LAND...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS...AND THE SMALL EYE STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN OUTER BAND IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OVER LAND. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE SMALL EYE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
LAND TO REACH 95 KT IN 36 HR BEFORE INCREASING LAND INTERACTION
STOPS INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY SHIPS AND
THE GFDL...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDN. ANY MOTION
CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF CIRCULATION ON
LAND AND WOULD LIKELY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

Hook - 9-15-2006 at 02:53 PM

Regardless of where its specific track takes it, it's almost certain to bring flash flooding on parts of the peninsula.

Three of the four computer models are predicting a path that would bring rain to the mountains above Mulege.

bbbait - 9-15-2006 at 02:58 PM

That's right Hook, and the ground is still saturated so the bank storage is at a minimum... same amount of rain will produce more water downstream.

Whereitgoes

Sharksbaja - 9-15-2006 at 02:59 PM



Whereitgoesnobodyknows.gif - 20kB

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2006 at 04:07 PM

take your pick . but I don't think we are going to get much if any here in Mulege but they are going to get some on the east cape :barf:

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 05:09 PM

People stand in line to board a flight back to the U.S. in the Los Cabos airport, Mexico on Friday Sept. 15, 2006. Tourists cut short their vacations as tropical storm Lane was expected to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours and is on course to affect the southern tip of the Baja peninsula.(AP Photo/Dario Lopez-Mills)

lane.airport.jpg - 27kB

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 05:14 PM

HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...LANE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
...PASSING JUST WEST OF ISLAS MARIAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z......THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 240
MILES...390 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EYE OF HURRICANE
LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LANE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...21.2 N...106.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

lane.5pFr.gif - 15kB

cat127 - 9-15-2006 at 06:29 PM

The Big Picture.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/wv.jpg

storm Lane

Fly Baja - 9-15-2006 at 06:55 PM

Judy,

Is that tract accurate. NOAA shows lane going up the west coast of mainland Mexico and on mainland at around Los Mochis.

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 07:21 PM

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/mexico/20060915-1727-hurr...

By Will Weissert
5:27 p.m. September 15, 2006

CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico – Tropical Storm Lane became a Category 2 hurricane Friday as it roared toward the tip of the Baja California Peninsula, lashing Mexico's Pacific coast, flooding port cities and causing a landslide that killed a 7-year-old boy.

The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning for the southern tip of the peninsula, the prison colony of Islas Marias and a 175-mile stretch of coast on the mainland that included the resort of Mazatlan.

The hurricane had maximum sustained winds near 100 mph and was expected to strengthen. At 8 p.m. EDT, it was 240 miles east-southeast of the Mexican resort of Cabo San Lucas, moving north-northwest at nearly 13 mph. It was passing just west of Islas Marias.

Lane was following the roughly the same path as Hurricane John, which raked Mexico's Pacific coast early this month before slamming into Baja California, killing five people and damaging 160 homes.

It was forecast to move parallel to the coast before brushing the tip of the peninsula this weekend, then heading back toward the Mexican mainland. The eye of the storm was expected to hit land near Los Mochis early Monday. It was then forecast to dissipate in Mexican without reaching the United States.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami warned that if Lane deviated to the east, it could cause hurricane conditions near Mexico's Pacific coast.

The resort of Cabo San Lucas was sunny and hot Friday, but tourists were scrambling to catch flights before the storm hit.

Ellen Fiersten, from Springfield, Ill., was spending her 60th birthday waiting in long lines at the airport.

“We were just happy to find a flight out,” said the retiree. “We've got a lot of family waiting at home, and they were going to be very worried. It's paradise down here. You really never want to leave, especially not early.”

Alan Murphy, a 59-year-old retiree from Las Vegas, also wasn't taking any chances. He was on a flight home Friday, three days before he was scheduled to end a deep-sea fishing trip.

“If it hits land, where do the tourists go?” he said. “They'll have to evacuate, and we don't want to be a part of that. They are going to get hit really bad. The highways are still really bad because of the last hurricane, and now they are going to get hit again.”

Residents, still recovering from John, were boarding up windows again Friday and stocking up on supplies.

Lane was already causing flooding in the port city of Lazaro Card##as in the central state of Michoacan, where more than 500 people were evacuated from their homes after a canal overflowed, officials said.

Earlier, the storm dumped rain and whipped up waves in Acapulco. Officials said a 7-year-old boy was killed late Thursday in a landslide caused by the heavy rains. Authorities rescued three fisherman whose boat capsized but they were still looking for the captain, state officials said.

About 200 homes were flooded in Acapulco, and officials closed the port to small boats and shut down schools Friday across the state of Guerrero. Streets were covered in up to 16 inches of water – including the beachside Costera Miguel Aleman, which runs past many luxury hotels.

There was also some flooding at the Acapulco airport, although service was not interrupted.

Report from San Jose 9:54mdt 15-09

bajajudy - 9-15-2006 at 08:57 PM

very calm. VERY HUMID
no stars. has been overcast since about 5pm
eerie.
the calm before the storm.
quien sabe

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 11:43 PM

HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...HURRICANE LANE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
ISLAS MARIAS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF
SINALOA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES
...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

WHILE THE CENTER OF LANE HAS RECENTLY WOBBLED TO THE NORTH...IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY NEAR OR ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE INLAND
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LANE A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...FROM COLIMA TO PUERTO VALLARTA
AND CULIACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...22.2 N...106.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

lane.11pFr.gif - 15kB

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 11:48 PM

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE RADAR PRESENTATION FROM LOS
CABOS MEXICO...AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT THAT LANE
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS OF -80C SURROUNDING
THE SMALL 9 N MI EYE. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE ISLA MARIAS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RAW T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY INCREASE TO 90 KT.

BASED ON THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PATTERN OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CURRENT EYEWALL
STRUCTURE TRENDS...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR
30C...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING AFTER
LANDFALL BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION IN 12
HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD. AROUND THE 48
HOUR PERIOD...THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THE NOGAPS
INDICATES INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LANE WHICH CAUSES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA...CONTINUING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS. THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE UNREASONABLE SIZE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FIELDS. THE GFDL AND THE GFS AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST AN EARLIER LANDFALL EVENT IN 24 HOURS JUST
EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING
LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH CALLS FOR
LANDFALL NEAR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION
TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL/GFS SOLUTION WOULD
BRING LANE TO THE COAST EARLIER.

BajaNews - 9-15-2006 at 11:49 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by BajaNews







[Edited on 9-16-2006 by BajaNews]

FARASHA - 9-16-2006 at 02:51 AM

Wishfull thinking, Kate, like me ?
I just do not trust LANE, or nature! In that respect.
Let's hope and cross fingers.

The sat -images (www.wonderground.com/tropcial ) shows the Hurrican now partially over Cabo area, or am I wrong??

Although the center is towards mainland, hm :light:
[Edited on 16-9-2006 by FARASHA]

[Edited on 16-9-2006 by FARASHA]

FARASHA - 9-16-2006 at 03:52 AM



NOW- anyone noticed that upcoming THING left side of LANE?
Out and offshore the westcoast of BCS?
Looks like another bunch of trouble ?

BajaNews - 9-16-2006 at 05:46 AM

HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE EAST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
75 KM...WEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM
...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL....FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA ALONG THE TRACK OF LANE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...23.1 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

Bruce R Leech - 9-16-2006 at 05:54 AM

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

yesterday i predicted that this might happen now we have an other one to watch

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/115302.sh...

BajaNews - 9-16-2006 at 06:09 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by FARASHA
NOW- anyone noticed that upcoming THING left side of LANE?
Out and offshore the westcoast of BCS?
Looks like another bunch of trouble ?
That would be Tropical Depression 14-E:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE FIRST FEW IMAGES OUT OF THE GOES-11 ECLIPSE PERIOD INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SOME VERY DEEP AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED
ON AN OBSERVATION AT 0600 UTC...VERY NEAR THE APPARENT CIRCULATION
CENTER...BY A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN ELTZ7. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY
DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTION...ANY RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 045/04. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF
HURRICANE LANE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING
AND THEREFORE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE NEW CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS.

14e.5aSa.gif - 16kB

Hurricane LANE 5am:

BajaNews - 9-16-2006 at 06:10 AM



Lane.5aSa.gif - 15kB

Hurricane Lane becomes Category 3

BajaNews - 9-16-2006 at 06:26 AM

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4191750.html

By WILL WEISSERT

CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico — Hurricane Lane strengthened to a dangerous Category 3 on Saturday and took an unexpected turn toward Mexico's Pacific coast, with forecasters saying it could get stronger before hitting near the resort of Mazatlan.

A day earlier, rains lashed coastal towns further south, causing a landslide that killed a 7-year-old boy in Acapulco and flooding that forced hundreds of people to abandon their homes.

With top winds near 120 mph, the center of Lane was expected to slam into the Pacific coast later Saturday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

Mexico issued hurricane warnings for the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula and for a stretch of mainland Pacific coastline between El Roblito to Altata.

Early Saturday, Lane was centered about 45 miles west of the mainland Pacific coast town of Mazatlan and about 185 miles east of the Baja California resort of Cabo San Lucas. It was moving north-northwest at about 11 mph, but its exact path was unclear and it could hit anywhere within the warning area, the hurricane center said. It was not expected to threaten the United States.

It was the second hurricane to menace the region recently. Two weeks ago, Hurricane John unleashed wind and rain on Cabo San Lucas, a remote enclave famous for its deep-sea fishing, world-class golf courses and pristine beaches flanked by cactus-dotted deserts.

Though the storm didn't directly hit the resort, it killed five people and damaged highways and washed-out homes have yet to be completed even as Lane bears down.

"With John, tourism dropped a lot. Now it's almost: 'Here we go again,'" said Ariel Lara, a 35-year-old timeshare salesman.

Lane caused flooding in the port city of Lazaro Card##as, where more than 500 people were evacuated from their homes after a canal overflowed. Earlier, the storm dumped rain in Acapulco, causing the landslide that killed the boy.

Eloy Valenzuela, a 39-year-old dock employee, was tying down a yacht belonging to an American in preparation for strong winds. He said he didn't think two hurricanes so close to one another would scare away tourists.

"We are always a moment away from a hurricane this time of year," he said. "But you just take precautions so that there is no damage."

Cabo San Lucas enjoyed clear skies and sweltering temperatures as the weekend began. There was no sign of panic on the streets or frantic supermarket lines.

Some homes had their windows taped and a few restaurants and storefronts were boarded up. But vendors continued to hawk fishing and scuba-diving expeditions, while hotel managers assured guests there was no reason to worry.

"So what about the hurricane?" Catherine Doster, a 25-year-old from Mobile, Ala., asked Friday, as she checked into her hotel near the Cabo San Lucas marina. Despite her queries, she said she never considered canceling her trip.

"I don't think there will be evacuations," said Matthew Freeman, a 28-year-old electrician who was traveling with Doster. "The day before a hurricane, usually all hell's breaking loose. Everybody here seems calm. Everything's normal."

Erin Newell, a 28-year-old film industry professional from Los Angeles, said an e-mail from loved ones in the U.S. about the storm upset her a bit.

"I think it's the fact that you're facing a hurricane," said Newell, who was drinking beer from a plastic cup as she walked near the waterfront. "I've faced earthquakes and tornadoes, never a hurricane."

Some airlines canceled flights leaving Saturday, forcing Ellen Fiersten, of Springfield, Ill., to spend her 60th birthday waiting at the airport Friday.

"They're very low key about the weather here," said the retiree. "The only information you get is watching CNN."

Alan Murphy, a 59-year-old retiree from Las Vegas also wasn't taking any chances. He was on a flight home Friday, three days before he was scheduled to end a fishing trip.

"If it hits land, where do the tourists go?" he said. "They'll have to evacuate, and we don't want to be a part of that."

Meanwhile, a tropical depression formed Saturday in the Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja, Calif., the National Hurricane Center said.

The season's 14th tropical depression was expected to only gradually strengthen as it feels the influence of Hurricane Lane.

The depression was located about 460 miles southwest of Baja and was moving northeast at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were about 35 mph.

BajaNews - 9-16-2006 at 06:33 AM

Marcos Calderon, 42, practices his guitar at the Marina of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on Friday Sept. 15, 2006 as he waits to play songs for tourist. Calderon says he is not worried about Hurricane Lane even after it became a Category 2 hurricane heading toward the tip of the Baja California Peninsula.(AP Photo/Dario Lopez-Mills)

lane.cabo.guitar.jpg - 25kB

Report from San Jose 7:39am pdt 16-09

bajajudy - 9-16-2006 at 06:42 AM

Very dark skies
No wind.
No rain.....yet.
Will report on surf after I come back from the beach.

[Edited on 9-16-2006 by bajajudy]

vandenberg - 9-16-2006 at 06:50 AM

Just watched Fox News and their meteorologists predicted a landfall close to the Los Mochis area sometime later today. Severe flooding expected.

Bruce R Leech - 9-16-2006 at 09:03 AM

Looks Like we are going to get lucky here on the Baja. but I feel for those on the mainland.

Bruce R Leech - 9-16-2006 at 11:15 AM

seem like it is starting inland now. it is very strong and those people are going to need help now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/114801.sh...

Bruce R Leech - 9-16-2006 at 11:17 AM

can anyone report from the east cape?

BajaHawk - 9-16-2006 at 12:28 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
can anyone report from the east cape?


East Cape ? Where is that? ;D

Just kidding...San Diego's "Lets Talk Hook-up" radio broadcast had a live report from "East Cape" this morning. I only caught the tail end of the report but I got the impresion that things did not get too bad there.

I hope everyone else is as lucky.

bajajudy - 9-16-2006 at 12:38 PM

000
WTPZ63 KNHC 161927
TCUEP3
HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1225 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE EYE OF LANE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
1215 PDT...1915 UTC...IN THE STATE OF SINALOA ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF EL DORADO.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

San Jose 1:39pm 16-09

bajajudy - 9-16-2006 at 12:41 PM

Clouds are starting to break up.
Never even one drop of rain.
No wind to speak of.
Surf confused and small...2 to 3 feet.
Heard there was good surfing in Los Barriles.

Bruce R Leech - 9-16-2006 at 12:52 PM

thank God

LB Forecast

windgrrl - 9-16-2006 at 01:44 PM

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/index-world-forecast.asp?submit=...

Bruce R Leech - 9-16-2006 at 02:28 PM

the weather service has lifted all Watches/Warnings For all of Baja sur.

FARASHA - 9-16-2006 at 02:44 PM

DID you hear that noise???:o That were a MEGA amount of stones, that came just off everybody's chest. :spingrin:

But-------

Barry A. - 9-16-2006 at 04:37 PM

--------now, here comes MARIAM--------------------??????
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