It appears that Paul will be wreaking havoc along the baja peninsula. It would be great to have up to the minute rain, wind and road reports por
favor...hunker down amigos...be safe...get prepared for power and water outages...stock up on cerveza!Osprey - 10-15-2012 at 06:43 AM
Power went out from 9 PM to 2:30 AM in our little town at East Cape. No wind, drizzle all night and still coming down.Mula - 10-15-2012 at 07:02 AM
Puerto A. Lopex Mateos:
Just started raining - not heavily but steady at 7:30a.m.
Not a breath of wind or air moving.
Grey, grey, grey.
Suffocating!
raining... Todos.
Shimmer - 10-15-2012 at 07:03 AM
Todos Santos...heavy cloud cover and steady rain since 5am 'ish. no wind. feels/looks like a couple days of this ahead of us.Russ - 10-15-2012 at 07:10 AM
Overcast & calm 74ºPescador - 10-15-2012 at 07:26 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Russ
Overcast & calm 74º
For once, we are on the right side of the Peninsula.Udo - 10-15-2012 at 07:48 AM
From the latest report, looks like you will not get a direct hit, Shari.
But, whomever has a leaky roof...be prepared with the buckets.bajalinda - 10-15-2012 at 07:50 AM
Ditto what Mula and Shimmer posted. We're right between you two. Started raining here a bit before 7 AM. Still very light gentle rain - no wind to
speak of.mulegemichael - 10-15-2012 at 07:56 AM
flat calm and 73 in mulege at 9ambajajudy - 10-15-2012 at 08:27 AM
68 on my porch
Started raining about 8 last night and has been a steady drizzle up until about an hour ago when it really started coming down. Very little wind so
far.rts551 - 10-15-2012 at 08:49 AM
It appears there is currently two cells. Paul is moving up the coast. The other cell is over the tip of Baja creating the rain currently going onDENNIS - 10-15-2012 at 09:03 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
It appears there is currently two cells. Paul is moving up the coast. The other cell is over the tip of Baja creating the rain currently going on
Remember to turn on the clouds....click on the radio button next to CLOUDS in the box.capitolkat - 10-15-2012 at 11:09 AM
Ligth rain here in La paz but is clearing, light winds, have friends out fishing today around ceravallo, I'll give their report on the water when they
get back in.Mula - 10-15-2012 at 11:13 AM
12 noon in Lopez Mateos.
Still raining steadily. Not light, but not hard, either.
A little wind ruffling the palm fronds and grey, grey, grey.shari - 10-15-2012 at 11:17 AM
it looks pretty dark to the south of us...Juan is loading up on yellowtail...his clients wanted to spearfish but after they got all geared up and were
going to jump in...a dozen Orcas surrounded the boat...ummm...change of plan...so they are rod fishing now.
the wind just switched to the south west and the clouds are coming closer.....
when it starts raining at San Ignacio we will bring the cushions in I guess!bajacalifornian - 10-15-2012 at 11:24 AM
Light drizzle in Loreto all morning. Been grey since yesterday. Great day for a book.Mula - 10-15-2012 at 11:42 AM
The mules are tired of this rain, too!
shari - 10-15-2012 at 11:52 AM
awwww....they look fed up all right!!! in more ways than one.
the problem with this rain cell...the pre Paul rain, is that the ground will be saturated and so when the real rain hits, it will flow faster as it
wont be soaking in...ruh roh! I wonder how bad the roads will get???surfdoc - 10-15-2012 at 11:54 AM
Guess I'll postpone washing my truck.............again shari - 10-15-2012 at 11:57 AM
Not so fast Doc...Paul may get sucked over to the gulf yet...the latest report has him going further east than before....looks like Mag Bay is in for
a snotty couple days...hang in there amigos.
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
PAUL IS INTENSIFYING. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING
AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. AN EYE SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY EARLIER
HAS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES
AT 1200 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80
KT.
PAUL HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 23N 118W DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER 48 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD DECELERATE AND
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTARD AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
HAS AGAIN SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH PAUL ARE ALREADY GRADUALLY
DECREASING...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL AND EVEN COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AFTER 48
HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND
THE CYCLONE COULD DECOUPLE AT THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION.
THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND
RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSBillP - 10-15-2012 at 02:08 PM
Ruh-roh, it's a Cat3 now, the BA/LB folks better batten down the hatches.
Originally posted by rts551
It appears there is currently two cells. Paul is moving up the coast. The other cell is over the tip of Baja creating the rain currently going on
Checkmark box will be UNchecked. Checkmark it once, it turns off again. Checkmark it a 2nd time and it stays on.
I like to monitor:
* Orange "traffic cone"-looking placemarks are worldwide ocean buoys (Google it --- and YES, these are your USA taxpayer dollars at work; for the
citizens of all countries).
* White is real-time visible cloud cover.
* Green is real-time rain/precipitation.
[Edited on 2012-10-16 by bryanmckenzie]DENNIS - 10-15-2012 at 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by bryanmckenzie
Dennis, way kewl website find. Thanks!
Por nada, Bryan.
WOW........it shows Paul blowin' at 120 mph. That's breezy, for sure.
Folks in Mag Bay had better get their laundry off the line.mulegemichael - 10-15-2012 at 07:05 PM
we also feel that way about our laundry over here, denny....cause it's gonna get a bit damp, methinksshari - 10-15-2012 at 07:10 PM
me...I'm still in serious denial.
so how are things down south kids?DavidT - 10-15-2012 at 07:10 PM
You could just rename all the churches down there. Call 'em "Pat Robertson Cathedral", then have Pat tell god to move that hurricane.
Hey it worked in '85 for hurricane Gloria.
In the dark of the night....
Shimmer - 10-15-2012 at 07:15 PM
In Todos Santos it rained almost all day, lightened up from 4-6 ish... getting steady again into the night. Looks and feels like it going to drop
some rain tonight as Paul's leading edges get close.DENNIS - 10-15-2012 at 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by mulegemichael
we also feel that way about our laundry over here, denny....cause it's gonna get a bit damp, methinks
Well....you know the old saying, Mike....."Keep your laundry dry." Russ - 10-15-2012 at 09:09 PM
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by Russ]David K - 10-15-2012 at 09:36 PM
Vizcaino desert will get a good drink!BornFisher - 10-15-2012 at 11:09 PM
Does anyone have a rain gauge? What is a light rain to me, is a downpour to my wife. I`d just like some real figures, not someone`s description. Dang,
a rain gauge cost about $5.Mula - 10-16-2012 at 05:05 AM
6 am in Lopez Mateos:
Poured steady all night. No let up.
Gusting to 14 with the average wind at 9 according to the little Acu rite weather moniter we have.
Long day ahead in Mag Bay area, I think.Shimmer - 10-16-2012 at 05:22 AM
Todos Santos... 5:42am light rain. No wind. Surf is pounding in the distance. Rain increasing as I type. Going to be a wet desert day. Be safe.
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by Shimmer]
From wunderground
SFandH - 10-16-2012 at 05:42 AM
Statement as of 5:00 am PDT on October 16, 2012
this is special advisory to update the track forecast for
Paul...which is moving faster and to the right of the previous
forecast. This means that landfall is likely to occur within the
warning area as early as this afternoon. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm
force winds will likely reach the coast within the next few hours.
Just delayed my departure for Mulege from tomorrow until Thursday, maybe Friday.
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by SFandH]
More likely landfall at Mag Bay around San Carlos.
That could be right. I was looking at the 25.8n 111.8w position and going directly west of that, south southwest is better.shari - 10-16-2012 at 06:17 AM
so sorry for our southern amigos especially around Mag Bay, Scorpion Bay etc...please drink you coffee and prepare for Paul.
No wind, no rain...nor winter storm...can stop me baby....I digress.
Juan is so right when he says ya just cant trust a hurricaine...they do what they want! He's gonna get a last fish in before the storm...he hopes
be safe amigosRuss - 10-16-2012 at 06:30 AM
Paul has gained in strength, has sped up and is projected to come on shore further South. I'm concerned that the extra speed coming on shore it may
pop over the mountains. Either way we're going to get hit hard.
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by Russ]bigmike58 - 10-16-2012 at 06:33 AM
I like terrapin with the distinction between between current and projected path.
good luck to all affected. The desert will still win in the end.
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by aguachico]
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by aguachico]Mula - 10-16-2012 at 07:00 AM
Lopez Mateos north of San Carlos on Mag Bay:
8 AM
Still pouring hard. Has been all night. No let ups.
Wind at steady at 9 with gusts to 15.shari - 10-16-2012 at 07:10 AM
Today will be a very difficult day for some of you...we wish you the best...please dont take risks, get out of the arroyo areas or help folks get out.
I imagine many of our onsite reporters will be losing internet today...so I think it would be great if those of you giving live reports can check in
more frequently and we will obviously know when your internet goes down when we stop hearing from you.
The damage may be widespread with power poles and phone lines down for several days so we may not hear from some of you again for awhile. May you all
weather this storm with minimal damage.Mulegena - 10-16-2012 at 07:18 AM
Rain began in Mulege about 5 a.m.
No wind whatsoever.
Take care and button up, West Coast Nomads.
Pick your toys up and be prepared, Eastsiders.
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by Mulegena]elskel - 10-16-2012 at 07:26 AM
Mula, thanks for the update. Keep it safe, looks like you are in for a ride a little later. Please keep us updated throughout the day.
brianOsprey - 10-16-2012 at 07:26 AM
No wind at East Cape yet and the eye has already gone north of San Lucas latitude. 2.2 inches of rain all told so far. Still have power. More rain to
come in trailing bands I suppose. I think this little village is now an island -- nobody in, nobody out for a few hours anyway. Longest isolation = 13
days. Whew? That was a wet one some years back.Udo - 10-16-2012 at 07:42 AM
I appreciate the update, George, since we are considering living near you.
Loreto report
Howard - 10-16-2012 at 07:48 AM
8:45 A.M.
No wind, a little dark and a steady but not hard rain.oladulce - 10-16-2012 at 07:59 AM
9am at Punta Pequeña (near San Juanico on the Pacific)- Zero wind and light rain. Flat, glassy ocean. Brand new casa, haven't even moved in, and no
hurricane shutters on it yet. Eli - 10-16-2012 at 08:15 AM
First time I have been home for a hurricane in years. I think it will continue to be light here in Los Barriles. Just had a good 20 minute downpour
that required one towel under one closed window facing direct South. I still have the North windows open. Slight wind from the South.
My dear Tio Gato has increased his vocabulary with some vocals I have never heard before, I think the storm makes him nervous.
Looks like the Northwest side is getting to know Paul a bit better than us in the Southeast. Be safe Y'all.capitolkat - 10-16-2012 at 08:26 AM
Rain in La Paz most of the night, heavy this morning, and I have to go let some water out of the pool, right now it's steady but light rain, dark skys
and winds about 10-12 from the west.bajalinda - 10-16-2012 at 08:31 AM
We think the worst of what we're going to get has just passed us here (La Aguja). We are somewhat on the edge of Paul and it rained buckets here from
about 6AM onwards. Of course this morning we have the highest high tide we've had in months right with a hurricane swell....oh boy! Hang tight you
all up northwards!Shimmer - 10-16-2012 at 08:36 AM
Todos Santos.... Raining, light to down pour...blustery winds out of WSW.. unstable conditions. It seems Paul raced past us out there. Be safe.bajacalifornian - 10-16-2012 at 08:38 AM
Loreto . . . rain picking up, however steady since ysterday. Stll looking forward to the debate if power hangs in.David K - 10-16-2012 at 08:42 AM
Hang tough amigos!Russ - 10-16-2012 at 08:51 AM
Update: I'm not liking this at all. We're now in the red zone. It's still moving fast and my gut tells me it'll hop over the mountains. Hope not!
Rain has slowed to a sprizzle now. Mula - 10-16-2012 at 08:56 AM
9:55 am Lopez Mateos
Still raining - harder and steady.
Wind 10 with gusts to 17.desertcpl - 10-16-2012 at 08:56 AM
..raining and dark clouds ..... everybody's ready for what lies ahead...............steveshari - 10-16-2012 at 09:16 AM
dang...I was doing my last load of laundry cause the power may be out for awhile...tent is down, cushions and chairs and plants in, umbrella
down...now to town for beer and water...no rain here yet...I'm now out of denial!rts551 - 10-16-2012 at 09:26 AM
Hang in there steve
Quote:
Originally posted by lawnday
..raining and dark clouds ..... everybody's ready for what lies ahead...............steve
Mula - 10-16-2012 at 09:46 AM
10:44 am Lopez Mateos:
torrential downpouring
wind at 12 with gusts to 16
Loreto report
Howard - 10-16-2012 at 09:53 AM
10:50 A.M.
Wind started to pick up and the rain increasing.shari - 10-16-2012 at 09:53 AM
thank you Mula...I thought we had already lost contact with you. I wonder how long your internet will last? ..I hope you are well prepared!!! We
tried calling friends in Lopez Mateos and couldn't get through on the cel.
no rain but 10 knots of wind from the south now...my laundry is trying hard to dryMulegena - 10-16-2012 at 09:57 AM
5 a.m.: gentle steady rain began
11 a.m.: a brief hard rain,
still no wind;
tide slow but outgoing with 2 feet showing on seawallsMula - 10-16-2012 at 09:58 AM
My local tel cel is working.
I have my Kindle ready to go when the internet on my computer and electricity goes.
All the streets are flooded and people are just hunkered down for the duration.rhintransit - 10-16-2012 at 10:00 AM
8.5 inches of rain at 8am in Tripui per morning net. now heavy, gusting a bit, rain sideways here just north of Loreto.Paula - 10-16-2012 at 10:02 AM
Raining harder, wind picking up in Loreto right now. Paula is supposed to come at 2pm. I don't much like guests who come early to the party.
Oops, that's Paul who is coming-- I'm already here!
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by Paula]bajajudy - 10-16-2012 at 10:04 AM
Although it is lighter, still gusting and sideways rain. Wind out of the west.Bob and Susan - 10-16-2012 at 10:11 AM
here on the bay in mulege...11:05am
light rain...steady...no wind YET!!!vandenberg - 10-16-2012 at 10:24 AM
Wearher underground definitely shows that Paul has landed.
Also La Paz's eebmike site.
Pouring here in Nopolo and the wind picking up. but still light for a storm that close. She should be here in a few hours, considering the speed she's
traveling. Keep your hands on your hat.
[Edited on 10-16-2012 by vandenberg]Cisco - 10-16-2012 at 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by shari
dang...I was doing my last load of laundry cause the power may be out for awhile...tent is down, cushions and chairs and plants in, umbrella
down...now to town for beer and water...no rain here yet...I'm now out of denial!
The government of Mexico has replaced the Tropical Storm Warning
with a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the East Coast of Baja
California from San Evaristo (north of La Paz) to Mulege.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California from Santa Fe northward to Punta
Abreojos
* East Coast of Baja California from San Evaristo to Mulege
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California north of Punta Abreojos to El Pocito
* West Coast of Baja California south of Santa Fe to Agua Blanca
* East Coast of Baja California from La Paz to south of San Evaristo
* East Coast of Baja California from north of Mulege to Bahia San
Juan Bautista
A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California north of El Pocito to Punta Eugenia (Bahia Tortugas)
Please check Wunderground.com or other weather sites. There will be dangerous surf and rip tides, much wind and rain with flash flooding.shari - 10-16-2012 at 10:26 AM
just a thought...charge up your camera batteries as the power may be out for awhile...this news flash just in...the beer is flying off the shelves and
nearly gone...gas has already run out at the station...gotta run to town then and see what's left!mulegemichael - 10-16-2012 at 10:32 AM
eerily calm here but rain off and on...the little dirt bridge under the big hwy bridge won't be around for much longer with this rain and these
extremely high tides...all the stores in town all boarded up..HOWEVER, scotties el candil just opened so we still have hope, food and adult
beverages...most of the oasis is hunkered here at mulege motel.....capitolkat - 10-16-2012 at 10:56 AM
Hard rain here in La Paz, I drained 2 inches of water from my pool and looks like I'll have to venture out again and drain some more. Gusting winds up
to 30 MPH out of the west, visibility about 1/2 mile from our hilltop house, lots of water in the streets and arroyosBajaBruno - 10-16-2012 at 10:59 AM
Two hours ago the Loreto airport reported Wind from the NNE (030 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 KT) gusting to 52 MPH (45 KT) with heavy rain.Mula - 10-16-2012 at 11:00 AM
Barometric pressure is dropping like a rock.
Blowing 16 with gusts to 19.
Torrential downpour still.
12 noon Lopez Mateos.
Still have electricity.capitolkat - 10-16-2012 at 11:03 AM
Weatherunderground shows Paul ashore around San CArlos with winds at max 105 and gusts up to 125, heading NNE at 19 MPH, there are heavy rain cells on
the tail of Paul, that appear to be whipping to the east and possibly up the SOC, lots of moisture, has cleared for about 5 minutes in La paz as this
end of the storm seems to be heading northwestoladulce - 10-16-2012 at 11:08 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Mula
Barometric pressure is dropping like a rock.
Blowing 16 with gusts to 19.
Torrential downpour still.
12 noon Lopez Mateos.
Still have electricity.
What's your pressure Mula and what's your wind direction?
Our pressure is has been declining slowly and is currently 1004.
Wind is E at 8mph with whitecaps starting. So far only 0.4" of rain.
Before I finished typing the wind switched to NW.Bob and jane - 10-16-2012 at 11:10 AM
Hit "post" on this reply a few minutes ago and the internet flickered off. Back on again now.
Curious the airport reports such high winds in Loreto. Not seeing that at all in the center of town.
We went out about 2 hours ago and bought the last of the Pacificos from our favorite deposito. Filled our coolers with block ice at the fabrica in
case the power goes out. Bought an extra garafon of water. Lots of people driving around. Streets flooded as usual. All but half a dozen boats out
of the darcena. Two pulled up high and dry on the ramp. Water sloshing from the sea into the malecon. Should be interesting when the winds peak
with tide this evening. I wonder if the smaller boulders they used in reinforcing the new malecon construction will hold. So far lots of rain over
two days but not feeling those winds, at least at our house. Everything battened down and waiting.CJ - 10-16-2012 at 11:10 AM
hang in thereLaTijereta - 10-16-2012 at 11:12 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by bajacalifornian
Light drizzle in Loreto all morning. Been grey since yesterday. Great day for a book.
Wind has been picking up..
Got my book, nice fire going, and soup is on the stove.. Mula - 10-16-2012 at 11:13 AM
29.54 and steady NWtortuga - 10-16-2012 at 11:16 AM
To everyone affected. May you all have a safe outcome !
Saludos TortugaMula - 10-16-2012 at 11:18 AM
It's at 1000 MB right now - in Lopez Mateos.
BajaInsider says the center of Paul is 970MB.
12:25pm
heavy drops here on the bay in mulege...it had stopped and now just started again
no real wind...bill erhardt - 10-16-2012 at 12:15 PM
Sailflow.com now shows the stronger winds in the upper right quadrant of Paul crossing the peninsula south of Loreto and proceeding north up the Sea
of Cortez.
Loreto
Howard - 10-16-2012 at 12:21 PM
Heavy winds with medium rain. A little flicker in the electric now and then but wine cooler is holding power.Pebbles - 10-16-2012 at 12:31 PM
We had good winds in Loreto for an hour but seems be slowing down now at 1:30PM. Rains are starting again however. Just want the electricity to stay
on.Russ - 10-16-2012 at 12:34 PM
1:30 Wind has picked up here too. Can't see Mulege nor the Santa Inez Islands. Bigger rain drops too.Bob and Susan - 10-16-2012 at 12:40 PM
a little wind now here on the bay 1:35PM...
LOTS OF big RAINDROPSbill erhardt - 10-16-2012 at 12:42 PM
We had good winds in Loreto for an hour but seems be slowing down now at 1:30PM. Rains are starting again however. Just want the electricity to stay
on.
Pebbles.....The image you attached is the forecast for 3:00 p.m. Sailflow predicts Paul's highest winds at 3:00 will be south of Isla Catalana. If
Sailflow is correct, Loreto will get the worst of it around 6:00 p.m. And, then on north to Mulege.Bob and Susan - 10-16-2012 at 12:46 PM
wonderful...it can stay in loreto...no one will complainPebbles - 10-16-2012 at 12:46 PM
