BajaNomad

Patricia update/links: Here's why the mainland dodged a very large bullet

Whale-ista - 10-21-2015 at 10:44 PM

UPDATES:

Why Hurricane Patricia Didn't Cause Epic Damage (full text in separate post)
http://time.com/4086096/hurricane-patricia-damage-explainer-...

Webcam live link to PV: (these are now back online)
Note the plume of sediment from freshwater runoff into the bay, here: http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-puerto-vallarta


This hotel looks intact. Hopefully, much less damage than anticipated, as the hurricane trajectory missed the most populated resort areas.
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-puerto-vallarta-sur


Thanks to Nomads who are participating, staying on topic, providing helpful perspectives and information, and not diverting into political commentary.


This could be a reminder for those planning winter/spring Baja trips: the potential for heavy rains, damaged roads and related storm delays could make travel logistics more challenging.

News from Friday: The storm is so intense that the air temperature up in the hurricane’s eye, thousands of feet above the surface, was 89°F. 89°F! The storm is so intense that the Hurricane Hunter aircraft recorded sustained winds of 221 MPH at flight level a few thousand feet above the surface of the ocean. Patricia is a storm without precedent. We are living history today, but nobody will live it more than Mexico. While we try to wrap our minds around what the atmosphere did last night, it’s important to remember that there are people in the path of this storm. This is not some abstract homework assignment assigned by some madman meteorology professor. This is a real storm that is quickly approaching land and soon threatens to create unimaginable amounts of devastation in any communities caught directly in the path of Patricia’s eye.

thevane.gawker.com/at-200-mph-hurricane-patricia-is-now-the-strongest-tro-1738224692

Patricia is stirring up 50 FOOT+ waves in the Eastern Pacific. Textbooks will be rewritten with this storm. http://twitter.com/RobertSuhr/status/657487876381396993/phot...

Hurricane #Patricia is a record breaker. Time for a new category?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?epac


The rate at which Hurricane Patricia strengthened is jaw-dropping even to seasoned weather geeks. The storm exploded from a tropical storm on Tuesday night to the full-scale fury of evaporated paradise in just 24 hours, which, according to the National Hurricane Center, ties 1997’s Hurricane Linda as the most explosive strengthening ever recorded during the satellite era.

http://thevane.gawker.com/mexicos-west-coast-in-grave-danger...

from Mexican national weather website:
SITUACIÓN ACTUAL: El huracán "PATRICIA" se ha intensificado a la máxima categoria 5 en la escala Saffir-Simpson, presenta desplazamiento hacia el nor-noroeste, siendo un huracán extremadamente peligroso que favorecerá lluvias intensas a puntuales torrenciales en los estados del sur y occidente del país.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=...
Patricia nearing Hurricane status. Heading toward Manzanillo, Mexico as potentially cat 3 storm! https://t.co/LK59COMAjL


[multiple edits]

[Edited on 10-24-2015 by Whale-ista]

bajabuddha - 10-22-2015 at 03:14 AM

Here's a great article about our current El Niño, a good read IMO> hits on fish migration disruptions and unusual storm conditions... pretty in-depth in global terms. Patty is making a right-turn, good thing for Baja, bad for the Mainland as all the snowbirds are starting to arrive SOB.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-huge-el-nino-i...

[Edited on 10-22-2015 by bajabuddha]

chippy - 10-22-2015 at 04:05 AM

Looks like we`ll be taking a direct hit:?:. Lyrics to a Clash song are coming to mind.

chuckie - 10-22-2015 at 04:09 AM

Just read that same article...Good read....

cj5orion - 10-22-2015 at 04:57 AM

gonna fizzle out bt saturday
no worries

chippy - 10-22-2015 at 05:06 AM

Its not sat. that I`m worried about. Friday when it makes landfall as a possible cat 3 is a different story :o.

bajabuddha - 10-22-2015 at 05:23 AM

Chippy, if you're on the mainland i'd tell my coconut palms to hang on to their nuts...... :(

BajaBlanca - 10-22-2015 at 07:12 AM

what a very interesting article. I was hoping they would focus more on the fish that are migrating differently but suffice it to say, we feel the changes already with wahoo plentiful in La Bocana. That is rare and only happens in El Nino years.

woody with a view - 10-22-2015 at 07:52 AM

Quote: Originally posted by chippy  
Looks like we`ll be taking a direct hit:?:. Lyrics to a Clash song are coming to mind.


Charlie Don't Surf

chippy - 10-22-2015 at 09:15 AM

Looks like it got bumped up to a cat4:o:(

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2015/H...

chippy - 10-22-2015 at 09:22 AM

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view  
Quote: Originally posted by chippy  
Looks like we`ll be taking a direct hit:?:. Lyrics to a Clash song are coming to mind.


Charlie Don't Surf


Tomorrow me neither. http://forecasts.surfingmagazine.com/#place=19.7253422480578...

Whale-ista - 10-22-2015 at 09:46 AM

Thanks Buddah- interesting report.

Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha  
Here's a great article about our current El Niño, a good read IMO> hits on fish migration disruptions and unusual storm conditions... pretty in-depth in global terms. Patty is making a right-turn, good thing for Baja, bad for the Mainland as all the snowbirds are starting to arrive SOB.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-huge-el-nino-i...

[Edited on 10-22-2015 by bajabuddha]

StuckSucks - 10-22-2015 at 09:50 AM

StuckSucks - 10-22-2015 at 09:52 AM



BajaUtah - 10-22-2015 at 01:39 PM

Yikes Puerto Vallarta is going to take it on the noggin

chippy - 10-22-2015 at 02:09 PM

When Kenna went by PV in 2002 it was a cat 4 also. Because PV was to the right of Kennas landfall (San Blas) it took a beating because of its big azz bay (bahia banderas) and fetch.

Patricia is looking like it will hit land east of Cabo Corrientes wich will put us here on the Costa Allegre to the right of it:bounce:. and PV in the clear so to speak.

BooJumMan - 10-22-2015 at 04:01 PM

El Nino has taken root, and is already feeding itself with westerly wind anomalies in the Western Equatorial Pacific. These strong westerly winds are called westerly wind bursts and they create downwelling waves of warm water across to the Eastern Pacific.

In strong El Nino years, we see a few of these events through the spring and summer that will charge up the Eastern Pacific waters with warmer temps. Each El Nino is different obviously.

This year actually started early, and started with some long westerly wind bursts which slowly made their way across in the form of Kelvin waves. A strong event happened in June/July and now 3 months later we are seeing the sea surface temps in the 3.4 region slowly make their way up. (Right now about +2.5C anomalies). For the first 2 weeks in October, we saw another strong event, which will charge up the waters again in another 2-3 months. And, right now there is forecast for ANOTHER event to happen. This will most likely keep our El Nino very strong though our winter and really impact the jetstream through spring.

Should be interesting!

bajabuddha - 10-22-2015 at 04:10 PM

Here she comes!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/noaa-extremely-d...

woody with a view - 10-22-2015 at 05:38 PM

the sun will come up.... TOMORROW!

from some song......

tiotomasbcs - 10-22-2015 at 05:46 PM

Hang tough, Chippy. Hope you stay out of harms way! Odile has left us damage from last summer but thankfully we're lloking good. Batten the Hatches, maytie. Tio

chippy - 10-22-2015 at 06:30 PM

Thanks tio. We will see what tomorrow brings? Its just starting now.

bajabuddha - 10-22-2015 at 10:18 PM

Just vamped to Cat. 5... expected Cat.4 landfall.

Y'all be well and stay safe. This is the real deal for Mainland.

Gulliver - 10-22-2015 at 10:19 PM

Reminds of the Rabbi's prayer in Fiddler on the Roof.

May the lord keep the czar. . . . . far from me!"

Insert 'Patricia' for 'the czar'.

Mike in Mulege

Hook - 10-23-2015 at 05:07 AM

Bob Henson, writing in Dr. Jeff Masters' weather blog on WU, has provided us with a thorough description of Patricia; as of his writing last night and her place in history in the Eastern Pacific. One of the strongest storms ever, anywhere. She is now CAT V and may hold that intensity as she makes landfall. This is an extremely serious event for the areas near PV and Manzanillo. Unless people and the Mexican government are well prepared, significant loss of life is a real possibility.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?en...

Hook - 10-23-2015 at 05:34 AM

This might come in handy, later.

http://www.puertovallarta.net/interactive/webcam/puerto-vall...

Now seeing descriptions that Patricia is at 175mph with gusts to 215. After yesterday's Hurricane Hunter Drive-Thru by the USAF, she is officially the strongest storm on record in the NHC's neighborhoods.

[Edited on 10-23-2015 by Hook]

mtgoat666 - 10-23-2015 at 06:10 AM

NHC says that this H is the strongest ever on record in both Atlantic and east Pacific AOR.

I think al gore and many have told us that global warming will bring extreme weather...

bezzell - 10-23-2015 at 07:43 AM

Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  

I think al gore and many have told us that global warming will bring extreme weather...


don't be ridiculous. Baja Nomads' very own obese 'Michelle Bachmann' informs us that actually, god is in control.

mtgoat666 - 10-23-2015 at 08:10 AM

Quote: Originally posted by bezzell  
Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  

I think al gore and many have told us that global warming will bring extreme weather...


don't be ridiculous. Baja Nomads' very own obese 'Michelle Bachmann' informs us that actually, god is in control.


Why did god send this storm to mexico? Who is he determined to punish?

bajaguy - 10-23-2015 at 08:12 AM

Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  

Why did god send this storm to mexico? Who is he determined to punish?





Time Share salesmen

wilderone - 10-23-2015 at 08:13 AM

If the webcam doesn't blow away, we can see what's happening.

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-puerto-vallarta

MulegeAL - 10-23-2015 at 08:37 AM

I think loss of the supporting infrastructure (wires, fiber, power) will take the web cams off line later today, even if the buildings remain intact.

This looks really really bad, PV won't be the same place tomorrow.

Zola - 10-23-2015 at 09:17 AM

To grasp what this mega-Category 5 hurricane will do when it makes landfall as a mega-Category 5 hurricane, load the file below on your browser and wait awhile for the graphic to appear. It will visually demonstrate the matter in a way that mere words cannot adequately describe.

THIS STORM WILL EVISCERATE CONCRETE BUILDINGS, WOOD FRAMES, ALL EXPOSED INFRASTRUCTURE, EVERYTHING. The only good news is that the strongest winds are confined to a 15 mile radius.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Anyone near the probable area where it will probably make landfall should have already left the area, getting 70 miles from the entire zone where it might make landfall.

Here is what NHS says about "ordinary" Category 5 storms:


5
(major) 157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

[Edited on 10-23-2015 by Zola]

Udo - 10-23-2015 at 10:09 AM

Tomorrow is TODAY!

Zola - 10-23-2015 at 10:12 AM

Puerto Vallarta and Punta de Mita are two of my favorite places in Mexico. I have a very good friend in Tepic and am not sure whether or how much it will be affected. If anyone knows, please let me know. Thanks.

My prayers and thoughts go to the people of that wonderful coast this tragic day.

AKgringo - 10-23-2015 at 10:20 AM

I have been exploring Baja for a few years now, but over my life time, I have spent more time on that stretch of the mainland that is getting hammered right now. My last visit there was to Melaque (sp) in winter 07.

I hope for the best for the people and places along the coast, and in the mountains there. I am afraid that even if the winds don't live up to the forecast, the rain will cause massive destruction.

Good luck to the folks in the bulls eye, and hope for a speedy recovery.

Zola - 10-23-2015 at 10:37 AM

It looks as though it will make landfall in between Manzanilla and Puerto Vallarta. The sustained winds will be at app. 200 miles per hour for a 15 mile radius. Hurricane-force winds will affect a 30 mile radius (NHS doesn't say how strong the wind will be outside the 15 miles radius). Tropical-storm winds will affect a 175 mile radius. In the center of the storm, the sustained winds will still be at app. 150 mph. after the hurricane has traveled over land towards San Nicolas. Then the mountains and land will cause it to dissipate quickly. It will bring a tremendous storm surge along the coast, very large waves, and a prodiguous amount of rainfall, especially in the mountains.

I understand that the Mexican authorities have evacuated people from the region that is expected to take a direct hit.

motoged - 10-23-2015 at 10:48 AM


Let's not let the discussion about this impending tragedy deteriorate into another off-topic political or climate change rant (we have had our fill of that ).....please.:light:
Quote: Originally posted by bezzell  
Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  

I think al gore and many have told us that global warming will bring extreme weather...


don't be ridiculous. Baja Nomads' very own obese 'Michelle Bachmann' informs us that actually, god is in control.

Sweetwater - 10-23-2015 at 11:35 AM

I enjoy reading the Brits, they don't mince words:

The worst hurricane ever: Tourists evacuate as catastrophic category-five Patricia with 200mph winds and 40ft waves barrels towards Mexico

'Extremely dangerous' Hurricane Patricia will hit Mexico this afternoon or evening
National Hurricane Center predicted 200mph winds and deadly mudslides
20 inches of rain could also fall as the storm reaches Puerto Vallarta resort
40ft waves set to batter coastline as locals board up homes & businesses
Only 1 other category 5 Pacific storm has made landfall and it killed 1,800
1959 hurricane had 160mph winds - weaker than Patricia's current gusts
World Meteorological Organization official compared Patricia to Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 6,300 people in the Philippines in 2013
'The winds are enough to get a plane in the air and keep it flying,' said a WHO spokeswoman of Patricia
Three airports located in Patricia's path - in Tepic, in Nayarit state, Puerto Vallarta, in Jalisco state and Manzanillo, in Colima state - have been shut down


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3285166/Storm-Patric...
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Zola - 10-23-2015 at 11:41 AM

Patricia does not have "gusts" that exceed 160 mph. It has SUSTAINED WINDS of 200 mph. It will have sustained winds of 150 mph even after it has traveled inland a ways. Very few if any human structures can withstand the force of such winds. The storm surge and the rain will also cause immense problems. These people will need our help.

DawnPatrol - 10-23-2015 at 12:00 PM

Max winds 200, gusts to 245 as of 8AM Friday....
does not look good at all

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2015/H...

Kgryfon - 10-23-2015 at 01:21 PM

Zola, thanks for the link - that was very telling. My thoughts go out to the people impacted by this horrific storm!

alacran - 10-23-2015 at 03:51 PM

We had our share of hurricanes in Mulege, but feel bad or the people in the path this one.

micah202 - 10-23-2015 at 04:24 PM

.

...I sure hope it doesn't direct hit a major town.:(

Bajahowodd - 10-23-2015 at 04:45 PM

It has a wide swath. Every town between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta are going to sustain catastrophic damage.

As someone who has been through and at both towns, I sincerely hope that folks who did not evacuate remain safe.

chippy - 10-23-2015 at 04:59 PM

every now and then I know its kinda hard to tell :D but I`m still alive and well:P

elgatoloco - 10-23-2015 at 05:12 PM

Landfall

https://www.windyty.com/?32.880,-117.070,4

David K - 10-23-2015 at 05:20 PM

I hope to hear from Frank (Soulpatch) before it hits him.

chippy - 10-23-2015 at 05:30 PM

Franks about as close to it as you are.

David K - 10-23-2015 at 06:32 PM

I thought he was in Nayarit? But, I see in his sig, he is in San Miguel Allende?

shari - 10-23-2015 at 06:34 PM

chippy...where are you? can we get an update on what is happening over there?

pangajohn - 10-23-2015 at 06:52 PM

...I sure hope it doesn't direct hit a major town. Micah202


What, no advice on what everybody should do and how you would do it. Nice to see you still never come down here, although I am sure we would all be better with your knowledge of every hurricane that hits. Thanks for finally keeping your knowledge to yourself, albeit always trolling for someone to listen to you.

May the powers that be,be with our country, where WE live.

EngineerMike - 10-23-2015 at 08:22 PM

Current track shows it hit land half way between PV & Manzanilla, and center should pass about 50 miles NNW'ly of Colima and Guadalajara.
Wind at landfall was called 165, call it a15% reduction in wind speed from its over-the-water high of 200.

bajaboolie - 10-23-2015 at 08:56 PM

Glad to hear your friends are weathering this well. Any further updates are appreciated; this is the one time I wish we didn't can cable tv!

micah202 - 10-23-2015 at 09:54 PM

Quote: Originally posted by pangajohn  
...I sure hope it doesn't direct hit a major town. Micah202


What, no advice on what everybody should do and how you would do it. Nice to see you still never come down here, although I am sure we would all be better with your knowledge of every hurricane that hits. Thanks for finally keeping your knowledge to yourself, albeit always trolling for someone to listen to you.

May the powers that be,be with our country, where WE live.



Wow,,do I know you?? BCS welcome wagon or something? :wow:

...releived that major centres dodged the bullet,, hope all the little beuno Vista's were as lucky. :wow:

.

[Edited on 10-24-2015 by micah202]

bajabuddha - 10-24-2015 at 07:59 AM

From different sources, looks like the speed of the storm matched the speed of its' growth (tropical storm to Cat 5 in 30 hours!). Luck has everything to do with its' path and landfall, could have been truly catastrophic... most senior meteorologists are shaking their heads on this one, and most agree El Niño effect was the principal exacerbator. Amazingly as of this morning it's still a Cat 1 and is over half-way across the Sierras headed for Texas; it ain't over yet.

Glad to hear our Mainland Nomads 'weathered' the storm well. :biggrin:

joerover - 10-24-2015 at 09:20 AM

Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  
Quote: Originally posted by bezzell  
Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  

I think al gore and many have told us that global warming will bring extreme weather...


don't be ridiculous. Baja Nomads' very own obese 'Michelle Bachmann' informs us that actually, god is in control.


Why did god send this storm to mexico? Who is he determined to punish?


Th heroine crop is wiped out. How will the fat lady-scientoligist fund her crime spree.
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-patri...

chuckie - 10-24-2015 at 10:26 AM

Don't worry guys, there are a couple more waiting in the wings...

mtgoat666 - 10-24-2015 at 10:40 AM

Quote: Originally posted by joerover  
Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  
Quote: Originally posted by bezzell  
Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  

I think al gore and many have told us that global warming will bring extreme weather...


don't be ridiculous. Baja Nomads' very own obese 'Michelle Bachmann' informs us that actually, god is in control.


Why did god send this storm to mexico? Who is he determined to punish?


Th heroine crop is wiped out.


I did not know heroines are a farm product. Wonder Woman tomatoes? Rosa Parks corn? Mother Teresa Brussels sprouts?

Whale-ista - 10-24-2015 at 10:56 AM

I enjoyed Bajaguy's reply. Seemed more plausible than heroin/e speculations.


Quote: Originally posted by bajaguy  
Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  

Why did god send this storm to mexico? Who is he determined to punish?





Time Share salesmen

Say What ?

captkw - 10-24-2015 at 11:36 AM

Heroin is NOT a mexico crop..joeover is out trolling again

bajabuddha - 10-24-2015 at 12:04 PM

Getting back on topic, she'll be crossing the US border by midnight at/near Laredo, and still possibly a tropical depression.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2015/T...

chubasco grande

captkw - 10-24-2015 at 02:30 PM

or Stormento grande....yes lecho I know mex is NOW growing a lot poppys ...But we can get some facts about how the folks in manzanillo, PV and area are doing...For gods sake..

[Edited on 10-24-2015 by captkw]

[Edited on 10-24-2015 by captkw]

Why Hurricane Patricia Didn't Cause Epic Damage

Whale-ista - 10-24-2015 at 02:32 PM

Why Hurricane Patricia Didn't Cause Epic Damage
http://time.com/4086096/hurricane-patricia-damage-explainer-...

Justin Worland @justinworland
TIME Science weather
Why Hurricane Patricia Didn’t Cause Epic Damage
The storm landed in a sparsely populated area


Hurricane Patricia—the strongest hurricane ever recorded—made landfall on Friday without causing the catastrophic damage that many had anticipated. That lack of destruction is in large part due to the storm’s record winds staying confined to a small area and hitting a relatively unpopulated region.

“The amount of damage is going to be entirely dependent on where the storm hits,” said Sean Sublette, a meteorologist at Climate Central. “If it had been a more heavily populated area, we’d be having a much different conversation.”

The storm made landfall near Cuixmala, a luxury retreat in a sparsely populated ocean reserve, early Friday evening with winds of around 165 miles per hour. But the storm’s strongest winds didn’t extend much beyond 15 miles of its eye. The nearest city Manzanillo, which has a population of more than 100,000, is located more than 50 miles away.

Hurricane devastation is often due more to a combination of unfortunate circumstances rather than the sheer size of the storm. New Orleans, for instance, only sustained category 1 or 2 level winds during Hurricane Katrina but the storm caused a high “storm surge”—when elevated waters get pushed onto land by the wind—which ultimately led to much of the devastating flooding. Failed levees and neighborhoods located below sea level only contributed to the problem. Damage due to Hurricane Sandy was also largely the result of a high storm surge.

And while Hurricane Patricia avoided the most populated places along the coast, experts said that the storm had caused widespread damage in the area it did hit, including mud slides, flooding and power outages. Officials in the more densely populated areas, like tourist haven Puerto Vallarta, also appeared to follow preparation practices that would diminish the chances of injuries or death.

While the damage caused by Patricia may not scratch the record books, its strength certainly will. The storm’s winds reached 200 miles per hour Friday before making landfall.

“There was still damage and still flooding,” said Sublette. “It was a quite a kick.”

thank you whale !!

captkw - 10-24-2015 at 02:39 PM

Yea !! whoopee !! thank god !! Hillary for prison, trump for prez:bounce: !!

pauldavidmena - 10-24-2015 at 04:18 PM

Cuixmala is an exclusive retreat catering to wealthy visitors like Bill Gates, Madonna and Tom Cruise. It's probably too early to determine whether or not kharma took a last-minute aim at such an auspicious target, but we can dream can't we?

Seriously, even mega-resorts like Cuixmala can't exist without its workers - the vast majority of them locals. Let's hope they didn't become unlucky statistics of an otherwise "lucky" storm track.