BajaNomad - Hurricane Sandra

Hurricane Sandra

windgrrl - 11-24-2015 at 09:01 PM

It's official.
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-depres...

bajabuddha - 11-25-2015 at 07:09 AM

I'm sure there'll be plenty of weather maps detailing the track coming in the next hours/day or so..... but here's Jeff Master's blog on Sandy. It's a good read; records falling all over the board. Mama Nature is batting first this series methinks:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?en...

rts551 - 11-25-2015 at 09:00 AM

Expected to be Cat 3 before hitting Cabo as a tropical depression.

unbob - 11-25-2015 at 09:45 AM

Quote: Originally posted by rts551

Expected to be Cat 3 before hitting Cabo as a tropical depression.

Not what I'm seeing now (8am update) - instead showing "Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH" when it arrives at Cabo around 5am Sat.

micah202 - 11-25-2015 at 10:47 AM

Quote: Originally posted by unbob

Quote: Originally posted by rts551

Expected to be Cat 3 before hitting Cabo as a tropical depression.

Not what I'm seeing now (8am update) - instead showing "Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH" when it arrives at Cabo around 5am Sat.

....well relax then,,maybe it'll 'only' be 73mph just before it hits Cabo,,,but there does seem to be a conflict between forecasts that rely on past patterns and those that regard record water temps.
If it's only for water temps, the thing would be monster,,but luckily there's a weather pattern creating shear. The shear is what will hopefully cause the system's demise.
The next two days will be critical,,,''We'll have to see how the trough erodes the high on Thursday/Friday.''

...from the forecaster this morning...''Sandra remains on track to become a major hurricane (Category 3) in the next 36 hours. Hard to believe so late in the season. The track keeps wobbling back and forth left to right and back again. If you have interests in southern Baja or NW mainland Mexico you should continue to monitor this system's track and intensity.''

[Edited on 11-26-2015 by micah202]

pauldavidmena - 11-25-2015 at 04:36 PM

The 4:00 PM update from Weather Underground shows Sandra reaching Category 3 strength, but making an ever-so-slight tilt away from a direct hit on the southern tip of Baja.

tiotomasbcs - 11-26-2015 at 06:55 AM

Like Patricia, Sandy is being knocked off course by wind shear coming south and this morning shows a possible miss on our Los Cabos. Now can we cool off? nighttime temps have been in mid/high 70s. Days in uppe3r 80s! Cara delivers the big push. Tio

[Edited on 11-26-2015 by tiotomasbcs]

rts551 - 11-26-2015 at 07:07 AM

CAT 4 now. What a weird year.

bajajudy - 11-26-2015 at 07:42 AM

Sure is dark and dreary here this morning. Calm.

Mexitron - 11-26-2015 at 08:46 AM

Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha

I'm sure there'll be plenty of weather maps detailing the track coming in the next hours/day or so..... but here's Jeff Master's blog on Sandy. It's a good read; records falling all over the board. Mama Nature is batting first this series methinks:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?en...

Hah, was hanging with Bob Henson (who's actually righting most of Jeff's blog now) last night--he was jumping up and down over Hurricane Sandra and how all its precip is going to dump on us in Texas.

pauldavidmena - 11-26-2015 at 08:48 AM

I'm liking this current forecast even more. Forecast discussions mentioned that some models are still pointing at a Baja landing, but it's now appearing less likely.

[Edited on 11-26-2015 by pauldavidmena]

[Edited on 11-26-2015 by pauldavidmena]

micah202 - 11-26-2015 at 10:38 AM

Quote: Originally posted by rts551

CAT 4 now. What a weird year.

....yes,,,it's actually unprecedented to have a cat 4,,130-150mph this late in the season. It's hard to trust the recent forecast when it doesn't show it's current strength.
Thankfully all forecasters agree that the pattern shear is breaking Sandra up and shifting her south before landfall, but it'll be nervous times until it actually breaks up.

....likely some good surf to enjoy, hopefully that's it for Cabo.

...the bigger concern now seems to be the amount of rains as she crosses the mainland into Texas and Louisiana.

[Edited on 11-26-2015 by micah202]

tiotomasbcs - 11-26-2015 at 03:22 PM

Foot in my mouth as latest update shows a more northerly/headon track for us here on the tip. Very dark clouds moving in from south over Pescadero. Rain in mountains. Waiting for a sign of surf but none yet. eebmike forecasting rain for next 2/3 days. Happy Thanksgiving. Tio

micah202 - 11-26-2015 at 03:36 PM

from Weather Underground. ...

Given the updated forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a

tropical storm watch for the southern tip of the Baja California

peninsula from todos Santos to los barriles.

Lee - 11-26-2015 at 03:52 PM

3:45pm Pescadero, La Playita: windy, intermittent rain, dark skies, pray for surf. Lobster at Copa Cocina.

http://www.todossantosinn.com

windgrrl - 11-26-2015 at 04:45 PM

Hot humid day, 16:34 Los Barriles - dark skies, light southerly breezes picking up and slammed my kitchen door shut. Hello Sandra.

micah202 - 11-26-2015 at 04:53 PM

Quote: Originally posted by windgrrl

Hot humid day, 16:34 Los Barriles - dark skies, light southerly breezes picking up and slammed my kitchen door shut. Hello Sandra.

...and darn it no norte winds for windgrrrrlin!

pauldavidmena - 11-26-2015 at 09:42 PM

Damned if Sandra didn't jog a bit to the north to once again track toward the southern tip of Baja. Here's hoping there's time for one more correction to the south.

Hook - 11-27-2015 at 05:13 AM

From NOAA.............

"Given the eastward shift in the forecast track, the expected

weakening, and the likely decay of the wind field to the west of

the center, it is becoming less likely that a Tropical Storm Warning

will be required for southern the Baja California peninsula later

this morning."

Looking like it will come ashore in the center of Sinaloa on Sat afternoon/evening.

Look out eastern Texas!!!

[Edited on 11-27-2015 by Hook]

tiotomasbcs - 11-27-2015 at 07:34 AM

Right after I posted yesterday afternoon the wind picked up and rain started to arrive. Light to moderate rain and squalls off the ocean out here near the beach. Palms whipping around. Wedding on the beach in windy, wet conditions. It all stopped in time for Thanksgiving Dinner at 6pm. Cloudy and quiet this morning. Rain puddles on dirt roads in the hood. Cooler! Life is Good. Tio

BajaBlanca - 11-27-2015 at 08:07 AM

Looks like everyone will be spared! Life really is good.

bajajudy - 11-27-2015 at 08:24 AM

We got sprinkles and no wind last night.
Very dark right now but still no wind
No wind would be nice. Rain I have no problem with.

Hook - 11-27-2015 at 08:25 AM

Now swerving more to the east than even very recent predictions. May impact southern Sinaloa. Much closer to Mazatlan than expected but it will probably be "only" a tropical depression.

pauldavidmena - 11-27-2015 at 09:43 AM

The current forecast path is a beautiful view!

Lee - 11-27-2015 at 09:53 AM

Some blue sky and sun peaking out in Pescadero, hasn't rainned since last night, think this is it. Strong South swell hitting the beaches. Praise the storm gods.

micah202 - 11-27-2015 at 10:51 AM

Quote: Originally posted by pauldavidmena

Damned if Sandra didn't jog a bit to the north to once again track toward the southern tip of Baja. Here's hoping there's time for one more correction to the south.

...funny how the charts self-update,,looking all clear for Cabo now. Glad to see the strongest E pacific storm on record didn't hit land! :wow:

Mexitron - 11-27-2015 at 12:36 PM

Fort Worth, TX broke the all time annual rainfall record of 53 inches this morning and there's still another couple days of rain incoming...

BigOly - 11-27-2015 at 01:12 PM

pouring down rain in LB right now!

Hook - 11-27-2015 at 05:09 PM

Quote: Originally posted by BigOly

pouring down rain in LB right now!

Bobitos for a few more weeks!!!!

bajabuddha - 11-27-2015 at 05:20 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron

Fort Worth, TX broke the all time annual rainfall record of 53 inches this morning and there's still another couple days of rain incoming...

Saw your buddy Bob's by-line on the blog today. You guys are getting whacked bigtime, and more to come. Could be worse; Lubbock is getting what looks to be an ice storm outa this mess. That's the amazing part of late hurricanes; it's not just the category and wind, but the actual amount of moisture carried, and then what it runs into. The freezing line is only about 50 miles north of us in Baja, New Mexico right now...... hope it stays there. I swore off shoveling snow and mowing lawns in 1995, and haven't done much of either since.

Happy boating to work! :lol:

Hook - 11-28-2015 at 04:27 AM

Now a TS, but tracking much closer to the peninsula than expected only 24-36 hours ago. Significant rainfall still possible on the East Cape.

CaboSur - 11-28-2015 at 07:29 AM

San Jose at 7:20am. Rained here all night with light winds, maybe an inch of rain so far . Looks like it's going to continue for a while

Mexitron - 11-28-2015 at 08:31 AM

Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha

Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron

Fort Worth, TX broke the all time annual rainfall record of 53 inches this morning and there's still another couple days of rain incoming...

Icing line is just west in Abilene...38 degrees in Fort Worth. getting too close! Amazing how the moisture plume goes from Sandra all the way into Labrador, Canada.

Sweetwater - 12-4-2015 at 12:55 PM

It seems that more will be coming, this is the hottest Nino evah....Baja lines up directly in it's sights.

I wonder if the palm trees on the beach will survive.....?

It's now being called: The Mega Nino

Of course, it's those daggnabitt Scientists making these predictions and they believe in climate change.....

Quote:

Now, new data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed that a 'Mega Niño' is on the way