Hurricane Norma

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The convective structure of the area of disturbed weather well to
the south of the Baja California peninsula has continued to
increase in organization, with an elongated band wrapping around
the southern and eastern sides of the circulation. Dvorak intensity
estimates have increased to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt
from SAB, so the system is now classified as a 35-kt tropical storm.

Since Norma has just recently consolidated, its motion is a little
uncertain, but the best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/4 kt.
Norma is located to the northwest of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from Central America, but it is also due south of a
blocking high centered over northwestern Mexico. As a result, the
storm is expected to only drift slowly northward for the next 48
hours or so. After 48 hours, a more pronounced northward motion is
forecast, but there is a lot of spread among the track models
regarding exactly how fast Norma moves north and if it moves east or
west at all. On the eastern side of the guidance envelope, the GFS
has a weaker ridge over Mexico and a deeper trough off the
California coast, which would cause Norma to turn northeastward
near the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. On the
western side of the guidance, the ECMWF maintains a stronger ridge,
forcing Norma to turn northwestward to the west of the Baja
California peninsula. Until the evolving pattern becomes clearer,
the NHC track forecast is between these two extremes and lies
closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

Norma is over very warm waters and should remain in a low-shear
environment for at least the next 48-72 hours. As a result,
steady strengthening is anticipated, and Norma could reach
hurricane strength within about 36 hours. Strengthening should
continue through 48-72 hours until vertical shear begins to
increase, and a weakening trend is likely to occur on days 4 and 5.
The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS guidance and
the ICON intensity consensus, and it is slightly below the HCCA
output.

[Edited on 9-14-2017 by mtgoat666]

[Edited on 9-14-2017 by BajaNomad]

Quote: Originally posted by shari

Ahhh...Norma...such a tease! shall we start taking bets?

...looks like a busy week.... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac









starting with "Norma"




[Edited on 9-14-2017 by carlosg]

Good reports. Thanks

If your friend is that good, how about the winning lotto numbers? )

Just came across this ... so don't be too pessimistic. Things change

On Windy, the European forecast has Norma going into the Pacific, while the American forecast has it going across the peninsula towards the mainland. Go figure.

OOoops. OK, Shari. I'll bet ya we're gonna get wet down here on Sun/Monday! Norma is strengthening, Oh Boy. Tio

Quote: Originally posted by BajaBill74

This is strange. I just went to indy.com and unlike AKgingo's link it shows it as West of Baja. https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-17-18,23.504,-115.752,5

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

Quote: Originally posted by BajaBill74   This is strange. I just went to indy.com and unlike AKgingo's link it shows it as West of Baja. https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-17-18,23.504,-115.752,5 Go down to the lower right corner of the screen and you can switch forecast models!

Interesting. According to windy.com (or windyty, whatever):

"in comparison to GFS, the ECMWF model brings better resolution
as well as better accuracy of the forecast."

ECMWF is the model showing the storm to the west of Cabo.
GFS is a bullseye on Cabo, Sunday noon.

https://community.windy.com/topic/3286/windyty-implements-ec...

That's probably why "ACCUweather" is saying it's going to be here
or 200 miles over there.


[Edited on 9-14-2017 by SFandH]

Quote: Originally posted by tiotomasbcs

OOoops. OK, Shari. I'll bet ya we're gonna get wet down here on Sun/Monday! Norma is strengthening, Oh Boy. Tio

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

..... Go down to the lower right corner of the screen and you can switch forecast models!

Quote: Originally posted by motoged

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo   ..... Go down to the lower right corner of the screen and you can switch forecast models! Yes....switching forecast models: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSv3xcJCpNI

I never get tired of seeing that!

lets face it, it's awesome to have all the latest techmology, but, it's still simply the weather, which seems to have a dymamic's of it's own. It is great to have people living in remote places having a platform to let everybody else know whats happening tho, hope this one spins west and away from baja, maybe push some more warm water up towards San Diego

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view

No hurricane is illegal.

Don't be unprepared!

++++

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Norma has a broad circulation but lacks an inner core. The deep
convection has weakened a little bit and is occurring in a few
cyclonically curved bands spiraling around the center. The initial
intensity is kept at 65 kt in this advisory, but Dvorak numbers,
both objective and subjective, are decreasing. The environment is
favorable for strengthening and most of the models suggest that
modest intensification will occur. The NHC forecast follows such
guidance.

Norma has barely moved during the past several hours, but most of
the global models forecast the building of a mid-level high pressure
system over the Gulf of Mexico, and this pattern should induce a
slow northward motion during the next day or so. As the high builds
westward, it will force Norma to move on a more north-northwesterly
track, parallel to the Baja California peninsula. The confidence
in the track forecast is good for the next day or two. After that
time, the guidance envelope expands considerably and becomes bounded
by the easternmost GFS over Baja California and the westernmost
ECMWF over water. These two models are in competition once again.

Given that the circulation of Norma is large and tropical storm
force winds will likely reach the Baja California peninsula, the
government of Mexico has issued tropical storm warnings and watches
accordingly.




[Edited on 9-16-2017 by mtgoat666]

Quote: Originally posted by motoged

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view   No hurricane is illegal. ....just bad manners by Mother Nature....

Quote: Originally posted by chuckie

Dali Dali doesn't own a home in Mulege

Looks like Norma is already history.

Mexico News Daily | Saturday, September 16, 2017

Tropical storm alerts have been issued in Baja California Sur as Hurricane Norma, 400 kilometers south of Cabo San Lucas this morning, is forecast to move northward later today.

The United States National Hurricane Center said at 10:00am CDT that the Category 1 hurricane was 110 kilometers east-northeast of Socorro Island and stationary.

But it is forecast to begin a slow northward motion that will take it near or to the west of the southern Baja peninsula tomorrow and Monday.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Los Barriles to Todos Santos and a tropical storm watch for north of Todos Santos to Cabo San Lázaro.

Maximum sustained winds were near 120 kilometers per hour and little change of strength is expected over the next 48 hours.

The Weather Channel reported that the forecast after Sunday becomes muddy as the storm approaches the Baja peninsula, suggesting it might “meander west” next week.

Rainfall accumulations of 200-300 millimeters are forecast for the southern portion of Baja California Sur, with amounts over 500 millimeters in some areas.

Mexico News Daily

Prepare -wait and see really happens. Be safe all though.

Edit: Had to laugh at the path forecast I just got from eebmike.



[Edited on 9-16-2017 by Russ]

Norma

Sunday morning, 7am Sunrise with color over Sierra Laguna. Warm and cloudy but no rain. I can hear the surf pounding, Amigos. A little rain would be very helpful ! Hey Otis! Tio

So Norma went out without so much as a wimper here in TS. Hot, humid, dark grey skies with very little wind. No rain! either. This morning I went outside around 4 am and found the stars and cooler air! My Lab Rio spends nights outside when I turn off A/C. By the way, 2 Ton Trane minisplit purrs like a kitten and cools the house down nicley afternoon. Sure hard to predict Hurricanes, No?? Tio