BajaNomad - Analysts predict peso will make a comeback

Analysts predict peso will make a comeback

GypsyJan - 1-6-2018 at 09:00 PM

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/analysts-predict-peso-will-...

mtgoat666 - 1-6-2018 at 09:19 PM

Peso is weak because trump keeps threatening to destroy NAFTA

When trump gets impeached or replaced under 25th amendment (Incapacity, insanity), peso will get stronger again :bounce:

fishbuck - 1-7-2018 at 12:01 AM

I read a headline that CA will cease the sale of fossil fuel vehicles. In 2040. The cost of a barrel of oil will plumit.
Isn't Mexicos economy based on government oil oil sales? Kind a like Venezuela?
What will happen?

woody with a view - 1-7-2018 at 06:06 AM

I predict the sun will rise in an hour or so.

larryC - 1-7-2018 at 08:05 AM

Damn Woody you nailed it again it just popped over the ridge.

fishbuck - 1-7-2018 at 11:43 AM

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view

I predict the sun will rise in an hour or so.

Yes, but when the sun rises in an hour or so in 2040 and Norte California no longer burns gasoline in their cars, and considering that the Mexico economy has a high percentage of their Gross National Product derived from gasoline production...
What is your prediction of the future in baja.
Specially to the future price of gasoline etc...
And as gasoline cars will probably be phased out before 2040 so maybe starting by 2030 or so, what impact might baja experience as a direct cause?
I'm hoping the price of gas drops so I can burn lots and lots. Like a dollar a gallon. Or less.

[Edited on 1-7-2018 by fishbuck]

DavidT - 1-7-2018 at 12:05 PM

In the U.S. it depends on who owns the politicians in office at that time.
If the billionaire environmentalists own them gas will be $25 a gallon.
If the billionaire capitalists own them gas will be $25 a gallon.

woody with a view - 1-7-2018 at 01:23 PM

Quote: Originally posted by fishbuck

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view

I predict the sun will rise in an hour or so.

My prediction device only sees 15 years into the future. You're on you own!

fishbuck - 1-7-2018 at 01:48 PM

Quote: Originally posted by DavidT

In the U.S. it depends on who owns the politicians in office at that time.
If the billionaire environmentalists own them gas will be $25 a gallon.
If the billionaire capitalists own them gas will be $25 a gallon.

fishbuck - 1-7-2018 at 01:50 PM

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view

Quote: Originally posted by fishbuck

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view

I predict the sun will rise in an hour or so.

My prediction device only sees 15 years into the future. You're on you own!

You could always lie to me and tell me what I want to hear. I'm good with that. :cool:

woody with a view - 1-7-2018 at 02:07 PM

I could, but why would you believe me? And what would I get out of the transaction?

Baja is for people with thick skin who can absorb the speed bumps of life.... Your mileage may vary!

fishbuck - 1-7-2018 at 02:21 PM

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view

I could, but why would you believe me? And what would I get out of the transaction?

Baja is for people with thick skin who can absorb the speed bumps of life.... Your mileage may vary!

Well spoken Brother Woody. That's the kind of jem I'm trying to gleen right there.
And in the spirit of good will I hope the peso gains some if that will help people who live in baja.

bledito - 1-7-2018 at 05:39 PM

buy pesos now then you beat the mark up.

fishbuck - 1-7-2018 at 06:52 PM

If you buy pesos now... while there cheap... and... the exchange rate changes... how does that work exactly? In terms of buying power.
Kind of a peso appreciation/deppresation "for dummies" question.
If I bought a boatload of pesos and they gain value by a lower exchage how does that help me build my fishshack? Materials, larborwise etc.
Anybody got any "splainin to do" on this topic?

Hook - 1-7-2018 at 09:06 PM

This article is a bit late. The peso has already strengthened a bit since mid December.

Basically, the peso TENDS to follow the price of oil. Oil is above 60.00 for the first time in a few years.

Trump has been talking down the value of the dollar since he began campaigning. He wants a weak dollar. A weak dollars helps US corporations that export goods. But it's generally not good for US consumers who rely on buying imported goods.

tobias - 1-7-2018 at 10:29 PM

Google says its at 19.20 to the USD right now.
What do you guys think monday will bring : up or down?
Place your bets!

Bob and Susan - 1-8-2018 at 06:27 AM

Quote: Originally posted by lencho

I believe the Dollar also TENDS to get more expensive around Christmas when lots of Mexicans buy Dollars for international travel. For those needing dollars, it's best to avoid that price bubble.

tourists buying dollars doesn't change the rate too much...

institutional money does...
big money buying into the American economy

there was some kind of tax break recently passed in the usa that is making the economy move...

foreign investors making the dollar stronger in the world by turning their peso investments into dollars

Hook - 1-8-2018 at 08:52 AM

Oh brother...........

The value of the dollar to other currencies has gone DOWN since the passage of the Republican's tax cut plan. It's recovered insignificantly in the last couple days.

I know. My European vacation this year is looking rather expensive.

The Euro and the Looney have done pretty well this year. The dollar has done almost nothing but go DOWN since Trump was elected, hit a multi year LOW in September, recovered a bit through October, and then continued down. A small bounce in the last couple days.

Oil above 61.00/barrel right now. I wish I knew whether it will go higher. I suspect only some kind of international crisis can do that. Just too much pumping going on.

Expect to see significant inflation this year.

fishbuck - 1-8-2018 at 11:49 PM

Quote: Originally posted by bledito

buy pesos now then you beat the mark up.

What gets marked up... peso?

fishbuck - 1-8-2018 at 11:56 PM

I figured it out
I buy pesos at 20/1
I sell pesos at 10/1
I double my dollars :light:

fishbuck - 1-9-2018 at 12:00 AM

Currency is the opposite of stocks
Stocks: Buy low sell high
Currency: Buy high sell low
:coolup:

Hook - 1-9-2018 at 02:08 PM

Quote: Originally posted by fishbuck

I figured it out
I buy pesos at 20/1
I sell pesos at 10/1
I double my dollars :light:

Investing is so simple, isn't it, Fishbuck!!!

Seriously, to answer your earlier question, if there is a significant weakening of the peso over a 1-2 week period, you could exchange dollars for pesos and proceed immediately to wherever you are going to buy building materials, durable goods, etc. before they have a chance to change their prices. This is especially true if your materials are not imported from outside Mexico.

A house might seem like a good buy but real estate tends to correct quicker than anything, especially if the owners are gringos.

That's really about all you can do to take meaningful advantage of short-term changes; outside of eating and drinking in restaurants a bit cheaper until they change their prices. But it can be fun............

I remember when I retired to San Carlos in 2008. I had sold my house in early 2008 in CA that I had held since 1994. The Great Depression was fully involved, I was earning 4% in a money market account on the sale and there were hybrid stock/fixed rate annuities that were guaranteeing 6%, but that was long term. In retrospect, I should have put more money into long term instruments back then, but the whole economy was so tenuous, I just wanted my money safe. My 403b eventually became worth less that 50% of its peak...........but did eventually return. I had to sit on it anyway, unless I wanted to take a penalty and be taxed on it. I really didn't need it to retire in Mexico back then. Our dreams were frugal.

Anyway, the peso devalued by 30% within two months after arriving. I still remember a full, shrimp dinner in the best seafood restaurant in Guaymas was 60 pesos or about 3.75. Fish dinners were even less. Diesel for the boat in Mexico was a bit over 2.00/gallon as I recall.

I thought retirement was going to be more golden than I ever anticipated. But the sweet spot in exchange rates/interest rates/cost of goods in Mexico didnt last. Prices corrected within six months and yields like those disappeared at about the same time and have yet to return.

However, one disadvantage to buying materials/durable goods etc. before you might need them (say, for building) is that you have to protect them from theft while you hold them. That's getting harder and harder to do in Mexico, IMO.