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SERGIO

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pauldavidmena - 10-12-2018 at 06:51 AM

Our current weather in Cape Cod is being impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Michael, currently a pink blob hovering in the North Atlantic. It is rumored to be making its way to the UK next!

[Edited on 10-12-2018 by BajaNomad]

akmaxx - 10-12-2018 at 07:03 AM

Mulege 8 am. No flooding at all, maaybe a little wind damage somewhere. Water didn't touch malecon. Nothing like in the past.

Back to your coffee.

Peace,

Juanita - 10-12-2018 at 07:44 AM

Wind has begun in San Ignacio and the
rain stopped. Have 3.5 inches in my rain gauge.

pacificobob - 10-12-2018 at 07:59 AM

we plan to cross and drive the length of the peninsula tuesday. hoping for a positive road report before then. best of luck to all.

Adios Sergio

David K - 10-12-2018 at 08:22 AM

Russ - 10-12-2018 at 08:50 AM

No reports of damage but will know more later after a siesta.
Noon - after short siesta I got the windows washed and haven't heard of anymore damage reports. The road at the estuary got washed out and there is about 18" of water to cross at almost high tide . Wind still blowing at 15 to 25mph SSW and there is still some large, for here, waves. Some big clouds lingering but mostly sunny now.

[Edited on 10-12-2018 by Russ]

SFandH - 10-12-2018 at 09:10 AM

According to this model, it is still raining heavily over the mountains.

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,27.284,-110.97...

Alm - 10-12-2018 at 09:14 AM

"Adios Sergio" -

when drawing conclusions from that Eeb/NOAA pictures of hurricane path, one should keep in mind the warning they usually post (don't see it this time): Hurricane cone merely shows the path, life-threatening weather conditions may occur outside the cone.
Otherwise Bob would've had clear blue skies and people in BOLA wouldn't get any rain at all (but they did).

Thanks people for real-time reports. Looks like this one had fallen short of Odile.

Adios, Sergio

bonanzaman - 10-12-2018 at 09:51 AM

No comparison here to Odile which was a full force Hurricane....Sergio was downgraded to a Tropical Storm 3 days ago......

SFandH - 10-12-2018 at 10:31 AM

Just got a facebook message from a buddy in Mulege. From what he said Sergio is a Mulege nothingburger.

Bob and Susan - 10-12-2018 at 11:30 AM

on the bay in mulege…

we had 3 inches of rain water

50mph highest wind

it's over for now...wind is about 15mph

window covers are off on our unit

time to dry up

mtnpop - 10-12-2018 at 11:34 AM

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH

Just got a facebook message from a buddy in Mulege. From what he said Sergio is a Mulege nothingburger.

Same news here, just received an email with a couple of pics of the estuary and Carlos' racing bar, the estuary was up into the parking lot across the super slab in front but not up to the concrete. also word from contact in the Orchard that all was well for the valley pretty much. Me thinks the crazy part will be negotiating the drive down in a week or so...

bonanzaman - 10-12-2018 at 12:43 PM

Same news here, just received an email with a couple of pics of the estuary and Carlos' racing bar, the estuary was up into the parking lot across the super slab in front but not up to the concrete. also word from contact in the Orchard that all was well for the valley pretty much. Me thinks the crazy part will be negotiating the drive down in a week or so...
[/rquote

Me thinks, you thinks right, Ross.....so no skimping on the Hiway 5 road report after you go down it!!

AKgringo - 10-12-2018 at 01:04 PM

I am guessing that Shari, and Blanca have lost internet service. It was not too reliable when I was there in March, with no weather events!

Alm - 10-12-2018 at 01:12 PM

"Was downgraded"? Let's not get carried away, figuratively and (God forbid) literally.

It was downgraded to tropical storm 3 days ago, yes, and the translation is "HEAVY RAIN"

. Some people got soaked, as I understand.

One Thing is Certain

MrBillM - 10-12-2018 at 02:31 PM

When you live in one of nature's Danger Zones.

There will be another and THAT one may be IT !

But, so what !

If you lose it all and die, it will have been worth it. Nothing good lasts forever. Besides, if you're dead, nothing matters, anyway.

Hook - 10-12-2018 at 02:34 PM

Looks like it was a double-double, meat and cheese in San Carlos, Sonora. Power has been out for 3-5 hours. Last reports were of rain falling at around 3/4 in/HOUR and gusts to 55 mph.

bajabuddha - 10-12-2018 at 03:42 PM

Here's hoping Shari and Blanca survived Serge's surge. Fingers crossed; they took a direct hit.

SFandH - 10-12-2018 at 03:44 PM

The hurricane prediction models did a pretty good job with Sergio. I've been watching for at least the past 10 days and the predicted path was right on the money. The decrease from a hurricane to a tropical storm was also accurate, and it appears the wind speeds and rainfall amounts were also good from about 4 days out.

The only inaccuracy was initially the storm was predicted to make landfall on Saturday morning, not this morning. But that prediction got better the closer it got.

This is the website I used. It has it all. Lots of options on the right side menu, a time slider at the bottom, and more options on the lower right I haven't explored yet. Plus you can zoom in and out.

https://www.windy.com/?25.086,-109.995,5

[Edited on 10-12-2018 by SFandH]

JZ - 10-12-2018 at 06:44 PM

Video from San Carlos on the mainland.

https://youtu.be/73OCNTKEBLg

Hook - 10-12-2018 at 06:47 PM

Every website I saw missed the downgrade to TS by 24-36 hours.

Hook - 10-12-2018 at 06:50 PM

Quote: Originally posted by JZ

Video from San Carlos on the mainland.

https://youtu.be/73OCNTKEBLg

Depending on when that was shot, that's a real testament to how well protected that marina is. Boats can take water, if their bilge pumps are working. The wind looks, at most 20-25 knots.

Alm - 10-12-2018 at 07:53 PM

Windy.com was the website I used, too. Predicted up to 1.5 inch/hour in BA (yes, twice as much as 3/4 downpour in Sonora), and 3/4 inch/hour in BOLA. It "could" be it, for an hour or two. It arrived to BA at sunset, and to Cortez just before dawn. Nobody here confirmed these high numbers with his own weather station, probably nobody wanted to go outside in the middle of the night.

The only other possibility is that Windy screwed up on rain data, big time. I wrote earlier that Windy numbers don't make sense, with rain intensity WAY over 8 mm/hour for 6-7 hours, and rain totals 40 mm/day

[Edited on 10-13-2018 by Alm]

Hook - 10-12-2018 at 08:18 PM

When did windy predict the downgrade to TS? Last time I looked at it, it was in agreement that it would remain a Cat 1, as it went ashore on Baja. Instead, it was downgraded 24-36 hours before that.

I find windy.com to be the prettiest interface, but that's about it. I prefer the ensemble models from the NHC. But they dont generally predict rainfall amounts, which are important. More important than wind, usually. But, as it turned out, not in this case. This seems to be a relatively "dry" tropical event.

Alm - 10-12-2018 at 08:48 PM

Windy.com doesn't generate labels Cat1, Cat2, tropical storm etc. It only predicts wind force. For BA it predicted upper 40-ish knots during the peak time, for BOLA a little less. Which was in agreement with Eeb/NOAA. Real peak numbers - don't know. I see 20-ish not in the peak. Wide-ars guess ... 30-ish peak on Cortez?

On the rain numbers Windy didn't do a good job, only approximate time of the beginning and end, give or take 4 hours. But there are no other good/better sources on rain.

Hook - 10-12-2018 at 09:30 PM

Rain amounts are just so unpredictable.

Try and predict the rainiest part of a spinning cyclone and then predict where the wettest arms will impact which portion of land.

Then figure in orographics.

Even a bit much for computers.

SFandH - 10-12-2018 at 09:33 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Hook

When did windy predict the downgrade to TS? Last time I looked at it, it was in agreement that it would remain a Cat 1, as it went ashore on Baja. Instead, it was downgraded 24-36 hours before that.

I remember windy predicting 40 - 50 kt max winds, depending upon where you clicked on the map about two days before landfall when you advanced the time slider to landfall. I knew that's tropical storm, not hurricane force. The app didn't explicitly say "tropical storm".

Alm - 10-12-2018 at 10:35 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Hook

Rain amounts are just so unpredictable.

Try and predict the rainiest part of a spinning cyclone and then predict where the wettest arms will impact which portion of land.

That must be it - spinning nature of cyclone.

Every time I looked at the expected yellow-red areas on Windy - i.e. very wet areas, 15-30mm/hr - for the same land spot and same date/time they changed every few hours. Rain clouds are spinning around the eye of the hurricane, and the eye itself is moving forward and changing/deteriorating over mountainous terrain.

JZ - 10-13-2018 at 12:33 AM

Been raining in Los Angeles for the last 3hrs. Had very rare thunder and even much rarer lightning flashes.

shari - 10-13-2018 at 09:34 AM

Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha

Here's hoping Shari and Blanca survived Serge's surge. Fingers crossed; they took a direct hit.

SErgio was a gnarly affair here in Asuncion, La Bocana & Abreojos. Power remained on thanks to amazing CFE crews but internet was on and off and we were busy trying to keep the water out of the house!
Rain started before dawn and lasted 24 hours...it rained like a banshee for awhile but most of the rain was light which saved us from alot of flooding...only very minor road damage and winds luckily were only about 40-45 at the peak.

the worst part of these October storms is having to cancel fishing charters 3 weekends in a row!!! that hurts

Vince - 10-13-2018 at 10:08 AM

Impressive rain in San Carlos. The location looks like it could be in any marina anywhere, big yachts, big houses. A long way from the San Carlos that I first met in 1954 when there was absolutely no structures or boats on/ in the bay. A diver's and hunter's paradise!

Bajame - 10-13-2018 at 10:45 AM

Has anybody heard about san Ignacio?

shari - 10-13-2018 at 11:07 AM

I heard the river was over the road yesterday but likely down now

Barry A. - 10-13-2018 at 06:55 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Vince

Impressive rain in San Carlos. The location looks like it could be in any marina anywhere, big yachts, big houses. A long way from the San Carlos that I first met in 1954 when there was absolutely no structures or boats on/ in the bay. A diver's and hunter's paradise!

I was there too, Vince, about that same time (early '50's), for a week. Nothing made by man was there other than a couple of gringos camping out, and it was spectacular!

shari - 10-13-2018 at 07:11 PM

Just got a road report from fishermen from San Hipolito...the dirt road from Asuncion to La Bocana is still not passable nor is the road from the highway into Abreojos.

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