BajaNomad - Guns from the United States are stoking a homicide epidemic in Mexico

And nothing mentioned (of course) of weapons entering Mexico from South and Central America, the Middle East and Asia......because it doesn't fit the playbook

Are you saying these places are actually the major source of guns imported to Mexico? Not the USA? Seriously? How about some data to support your theory?

John

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by John Harper]

amigobaja - 10-7-2019 at 08:50 AM

So I'm confused! The Pols and news media keep telling me that we need more gun registration,confiscation,more gun laws and out right bans all the things Mexico has had for years and it doesn't work. I think I'll not risk my family and break any laws or confiscation they try.

John Harper - 10-7-2019 at 08:55 AM

Quote: Originally posted by amigobaja

So I'm confused! The Pols and news media keep telling me that we need more gun registration,confiscation,more gun laws and out right bans all the things Mexico has had for years and it doesn't work. I think I'll not risk my family and break any laws or confiscation they try.

The same might be said about illegal drugs awash in the USA. Surprise, surprise, policies often lead to unintended consequences. See Prohibition as a prime example.

Any ideas about what might work? As a lifelong gun owner, I'd be interested in your proposals.

John

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by John Harper]

STOKING ?

MrBillM - 10-7-2019 at 09:04 AM

Stoking would seem to imply that there would be fewer such homicides IF the U.S. supply were limited. I doubt that there's ANY reason to believe THAT.

Should (somehow miraculously) the U.S. supply be curtailed, there would likely be an increased sourcing from the Latin America region or elsewhere. WE are simply (at this time) the more convenient and least costly source.

In any case, it is within the purview of the MEXICAN authorities to address the importation issue. THEY can tighten their inspection regime at the border to ANY extent that they wish.

bajaguy - 10-7-2019 at 09:08 AM

Here are two.......... https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/mexicos-gun-supply-an...

https://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/citation/quotes/8490

But you don't have to believe it

And nothing mentioned (of course) of weapons entering Mexico from South and Central America, the Middle East and Asia......because it doesn't fit the playbook

Are you saying these places are actually the major source of guns imported to Mexico? Not the USA? Seriously? How about some data to support your theory?

John

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by John Harper]

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by bajaguy]

John Harper - 10-7-2019 at 09:36 AM

But you don't have to believe it.

To quote from one of your references:

"According to the GAO report, some 30,000 firearms were seized from criminals by Mexican authorities in 2008. Of these 30,000 firearms, information pertaining to 7,200 of them (24 percent) was submitted to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for tracing. Of these 7,200 guns, only about 4,000 could be traced by the ATF, and of these 4,000, some 3,480 (87 percent) were shown to have come from the United States."

So, only 4000/30000 guns were actually traced, but 87% of those 4000 came from the US?

"The remaining 22,800 firearms seized by Mexican authorities in 2008 were not traced for a variety of reasons. In addition to factors such as bureaucratic barriers and negligence, many of the weapons seized by Mexican authorities either do not bear serial numbers or have had their serial numbers altered or obliterated."

How can you say where the other weapons came from, if there was no ability to trace them due to missing serial numbers?

Do you have any idea how many US arms have been around since well before background checks or DROS laws, and are not going to show up on any ATF records? I have quite a few in my safe, bought in the 1960's and 1970's. No records, no paperwork, nothing.

Why is it so hard to believe illegal guns in Mexico are likely to come from the USA? We are the largest arms exporter in the world.

John

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by John Harper]

bajaguy - 10-7-2019 at 09:54 AM

And most, if not all weapons from foreign sources will be untraceable by BATF....and I would imagine most weapons purchased in the 60's and 70's are maintained by responsible owners and not shipped south, unless they are stolen

But you don't have to believe it.

"According to the GAO report, some 30,000 firearms were seized from criminals by Mexican authorities in 2008. Of these 30,000 firearms, information pertaining to 7,200 of them (24 percent) was submitted to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for tracing. Of these 7,200 guns, only about 4,000 could be traced by the ATF, and of these 4,000, some 3,480 (87 percent) were shown to have come from the United States."

So, only 4000/30000 guns were actually traced, but 87% of those 4000 came from the US?

"The remaining 22,800 firearms seized by Mexican authorities in 2008 were not traced for a variety of reasons. In addition to factors such as bureaucratic barriers and negligence, many of the weapons seized by Mexican authorities either do not bear serial numbers or have had their serial numbers altered or obliterated."

How can you say where the other weapons came from, if there was no ability to trace them due to missing serial numbers?

Do you have any idea how many US arms have been around since well before background checks or DROS laws, and are not going to show up on any ATF records? I have quite a few in my safe, bought in the 1960's and 1970's. No records, no paperwork, nothing.

Why is it so hard to believe illegal guns in Mexico are likely to come from the USA?

John

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by John Harper]

John Harper - 10-7-2019 at 09:58 AM

And most, if not all weapons from foreign sources will be untraceable by BATF....and I would imagine most weapons purchased in the 60's and 70's are maintained by responsible owners and not shipped south, unless they are stolen.[/rquote]

"The remaining 22,800 firearms seized by Mexican authorities in 2008 were not traced for a variety of reasons. In addition to factors such as bureaucratic barriers and negligence, many of the weapons seized by Mexican authorities either do not bear serial numbers or have had their serial numbers altered or obliterated."

Once again, guns without serial numbers can't be traced to any country of origin. But, what does Occam's Razor imply? Especially if 87% of guns actually traced came from the USA?

John

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by John Harper]

bajaguy - 10-7-2019 at 10:43 AM

This means that the 87 percent figure relates to the number of weapons submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF that could be successfully traced and not from the total number of weapons seized by Mexican authorities or even from the total number of weapons submitted to the ATF for tracing......... In fact, the 3,480 guns positively traced to the United States equals less than 12 percent of the total arms seized in Mexico in 2008 and less than 48 percent of all those submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF for tracing............. This means that almost 90 percent of the guns seized in Mexico in 2008 were not traced back to the United States......https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/mexicos-gun-supply-and-90-percent-myth

John Harper - 10-7-2019 at 11:09 AM

In fact, the 3,480 guns positively traced to the United States equals less than 12 percent of the total arms seized in Mexico in 2008 and less than 48 percent of all those submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF for tracing............. This means that almost 90 percent of the guns seized in Mexico in 2008 were not traced back to the United States......https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/mexicos-gun-supply-and-90-percent-myth

No, read your own source. 90% of the guns seized were untraceable, primarily due to lack of serial numbers. You cannot in any confidence say that these untraceable guns did not come from the USA, since they are "untraceable." So, let's just toss those from our computations, and look at those guns that were traceable.

Of all the seized guns that were traceable, 87% came from the USA.

John

Location, Location, Location

SFandH - 10-7-2019 at 11:38 AM

The 3 rules of real estate also apply to where it is best to own a gun store. Competition is stiff, but business is brisk.

"In the border region there are approximately 6,700 FFLs, or 12.5% of all registered gun dealers in the United States. This represents three gun dealers for every mile of the U.S.-Mexico border."

FFL = dealers with Federal Firearms Licenses to sell small arms

https://journalistsresource.org/studies/government/criminal-...

JohnGaltSpeaking - 10-7-2019 at 12:16 PM

so if there is a correlation between the number of American guns and a country's homicide rate shouldn't the United States, with all of its guns, have a much higher rate than Mexico? sorry but as cliche as it is, guns don't kill people, people do. just look at the UK, who has virtually no guns, and see how the murder rate has climbed. love the LATimes, but this article is reaching.

SFandH - 10-7-2019 at 01:11 PM

so if there is a correlation between the number of American guns and a country's homicide rate shouldn't the United States, with all of its guns, have a much higher rate than Mexico?

Logical but it's not all that simple. A big reason for the high homicide rate in Mexico is Mexican murderers essentially have impunity. It's easy to get away with murder in Mexico. Only a tiny fraction of murderers suffer any consequences. No fear of getting caught.

Quite the opposite is true in the United States.

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by SFandH]

JohnGaltSpeaking - 10-7-2019 at 01:41 PM

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH

so if there is a correlation between the number of American guns and a country's homicide rate shouldn't the United States, with all of its guns, have a much higher rate than Mexico?

Logical but it's not all that simple. A big reason for the high homicide rate in Mexico is Mexican murderers have, essentially, impunity. It's easy to get away with murder in Mexico. Only a tiny fraction of murderers suffer any consequences.

Of course, quite the opposite is true in the United States. I wonder how many murders there would be in the US if there was no fear of getting caught.

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by SFandH]

no of course it's not all that simple, but it is kinda simple. and the main reason is the exact one you mentioned... impunity. i have always quoted the 91% rate of unpunished murders as the main source of the countries violence and having read this article i realize i can now quote the new number, 95%. gun violence has risen, but it is simply a symptom to a much bigger problem. the homicide rate in mexico has been significant for quite some time, even before 2004. like all issues, it is layered. but a conversation about the homicide rate in mexico that only leads with american gun involvement is biased. and while i appreciate and may even side with the intentions of the LATimes on the underlying issue (clearly gun control), its tactics are nothing short of irresponsible.

John Harper - 10-7-2019 at 01:45 PM

so if there is a correlation between the number of American guns and a country's homicide rate shouldn't the United States, with all of its guns, have a much higher rate than Mexico?

Don't forget the accidental shootings and suicides in the USA as well. Perhaps we should look at all deaths and injuries due to firearms in Mexico versus the US:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-r...

Looks like overall firearms related deaths are much higher in the US (almost 2X) than in Mexico. Homicide rates higher in Mexico, but suicides are far greater in the USA.

Suicide by gun appears to be more prevalent than homicide by gun in the USA.

John

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by John Harper]

JohnGaltSpeaking - 10-7-2019 at 02:15 PM

so if there is a correlation between the number of American guns and a country's homicide rate shouldn't the United States, with all of its guns, have a much higher rate than Mexico?

great link, which proves the point. specifically the statistic that shows we have almost 10 times the guns that mexico has. (mexico has 15 guns per 100 inhabitants, US has 120 per 100) so if there were to exist a correlation, Mexico should have 10 times the rate, not less than 2X.
as for the suicide rate, having easier access to guns obviously leads to a higher suicide rate given the fact that it is a much more successful way to die.
according to this article: http://lostallhope.com/suicide-methods/statistics-most-letha... 3 of the 5 most lethal methods of suicide involve the use of a gun.
mexico has a homicide problem and the united states has a suicide problem, but looking at all of these statistics leads to the fact that guns are not the reason behind either. which is difficult to admit as i am for gun control, but becomes easier as i am much more for responsible journalism.

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by JohnGaltSpeaking]

John Harper - 10-7-2019 at 02:55 PM

Yes, JGS, I agree. Even though I am a gun owner, I do wish we could figure out a way to keep them from the wrong hands, and subsequent tragic usage. There doesn't seem to be any one "magic bullet" that can affect much, although I have no problem with a 10 round magazine limit, as a step to possibly make mass shootings more difficult. Notice, I say possibly, as we don't even know what triggers most these nutcase shooters.

Maybe it's not the guns, but the human race that is the flawed product on the market. A recall can't come soon enough.

John

[Edited on 10-7-2019 by John Harper]

JohnGaltSpeaking - 10-7-2019 at 03:43 PM