BajaNomad - TJ HOSPITAL - Powered by XMB

To me, this stands out:
"health experts consider that number {304 confirmed cases in BC} to be only a fraction of the total cases because testing is severely limited in Baja California and Mexico"

This is a 3rd world country. Not enough hospitals and equipment. People don't go to hospitals in numbers because they don't have time, need to provide for their families. It could get worse in the coming weeks, without money to buy a mask and without proper distancing in this crowded town. The only thing going for them is that their population is younger than in the US and Europe, they die much less - but they still spread the disease so it could turn into a lingering yearlong affair.

Yes many people had the flu, colds, covid19 and recovered, high numbers have recovered with no associated problems which demonstrates that there is no increased threat of death from previous years. Health issues to be concerned about are obesity, poor diet due to excessive sugar, excess corn and flour, carbohydrates. lack of broad, diverse fresh vegetables and fruits, meats and fish to provide adequate vitamins, amino acids and essential minerals. Sedentary seniors who fail to exercise and drink too much alcohol and smoking is the biggest risk to health causing heart disease, cancer, asthma allergies, etc. Wasting time on the internet when you should be outdoors and moving around and doing something productive for you household and community.

Warm weather, humidityand reduced populations are reduced risk for flu which is why Baja traditionally has much lower numbers of Flu and risk of associated deaths from Flu compared to el Norte.

Moreover, people develop antibodies, and RNA replicates rapidly which is our natural defense mechanism to infections of viruses. Isolation and sedentary lifestyle is contrary to healthy best practices to fight the flu across communities. People need to be together, communicating, dancing, singing, sharing ideas and be free to move about and stress must be reduced while healthy living must be promoted, not fear, attacking each other, idiocy, anger, nonsensical orders of isolation and uncertainty. Fauci, WHO, Gates are clearly not working for the overall health of the community, or they would be communicating clear truthful messages, they are not, they are clearly are working on a false fear based agenda which is a bio meme economic war on USA and Mexico that has far more danger to our health than the flu. Economic havoc will cause severe harm, to our livelihood, health, and survival. People need to be free to move and work and be together and not follow nonsensical absurd global bio war memes and be sedentary and alone.

Use your critical thinking and common sense, go make some soup, have some juice, salads, eat tacos, get some exercise go outside and tell your family you love them.

[Edited on 4-12-2020 by gnukid]

Alm - 4-12-2020 at 11:30 AM

Quote: Originally posted by Bob and Susan

the cure if you catch it fast

This is clinical trial Phase 1. To be followed by "blind" Phase 2 and 3 where patients are randomly given the drug or placebo and the results are compared. Otherwise it is not clear what effect the drug had on the improved symptoms. Btw Chloroquine has side effects - potentially fatal heart arrhythmia and damage to eyes and nerve system.

Another thing to remember is that nobody knows how long it takes to recover. In China they had patients tested positive, with symptoms, then "recovered" in a few weeks and after a few months he is tested positive and with symptoms again. The consensus is that those were not re-infected with a mutated virus (no immunity after recovery) but a long asymptotic course of disease, 2-3 months.
Stay put for as long you can.

[Edited on 4-12-2020 by Alm]

RFClark - 4-12-2020 at 12:31 PM

The problem with conventional conservative treatment in this case is waiting until the disease worsens before beginning drug therapy. By the time it worsens in those who will require more aggressive treatment ( around 10 days) serious and perhaps fatal damage to the lungs is already done. The time for medical intervention is early on (day 1 or 2). This is especially true in the “high at risk population”.

It is likely that the “high at risk population” should be treated prophylactically with an antiviral drug. In some of the worst patients who end up on ventilators with ARDS at least 50% and up to 90% will die depending on their risk factors.

Evidence is mounting that several malarial and Lupus drugs do work prophylactically. They are cheap and when taken correctly less dangerous than Acetaminophen for most people.

Talk to your Doctor or Pharmacist about this if you are at risk. Tell them what you currently take especially supplements! Don’t self medicate!

Alm - 4-12-2020 at 12:59 PM

Quote: Originally posted by gnukid

Yes many people had the flu, colds, covid19 and recovered, high numbers have recovered with no associated problems which demonstrates that there is no increased threat of death from previous years.

Covid-19 deaths compared to seasonal flu.

From the article:
"If divided equally over the course of a year, slightly under 400 New Yorkers {NY state} died each month in 2018 from the flu or pneumonia, around 167 of whom were in the city...

... from March 1 to March 31 the coronavirus killed ... 1,342 people who died in the state, 914 were in New York City".

Monthly score:
NY state: Flu 400 vs Coronavirus 1,342
NYC: Flu 167 vs Coronavirus 914

Even with adjustment that flu is mostly in the cooler 6 months, it's still 800 vs 1,342 for NY state, 334 vs 914 for NYC.

[Edited on 4-12-2020 by Alm]

Purdyd - 4-12-2020 at 03:50 PM

I don’t know why you would even dredge up numbers from March.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

758 died in New York State over the last 24 hours.

The current death toll is 9385, so 8000 in April so far.

Estimated that over 13,000 will pass away and the peak was 3 days ago.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-...

This suggests to me it is time to start discussing opening things up even now.

Alm - 4-12-2020 at 05:07 PM

I don’t know why you would even dredge up numbers from March.

Because March is the only full month of epidemic, so far.

[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Alm]

caj13 - 4-12-2020 at 05:27 PM

I don’t know why you would even dredge up numbers from March.

Because March is the only full month of epidemic, so far.

[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Alm]

Because real data matters? Obviously not to some here, and the inability to look at data through a lens of critical thought, thats the big issue. education matters. Willingness to seek out nd understand - that matters even more.

so some of you need to hurry on and buy Alex Jones Covid proof toothpaste before the dastardly government shuts him down!

Purdyd - 4-12-2020 at 09:48 PM

I don’t know why you would even dredge up numbers from March.

Because March is the only full month of epidemic, so far.

[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Alm]

I’m sorry, I see it is gnukid who is dredging up old stuff.

He appears to like this website but it seems to imply covid is increasing death rate

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Quote:

European mortality bulletin week 14, 2020 Link to printable version The latest pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network show a marked increase in excess all-cause mortality overall for the participating European countries, related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This overall excess mortality is driven by a very substantial excess mortality in some countries, primarily seen in the age group of 65 years and above, but also in the age group of 15-64 years.

RFClark - 4-12-2020 at 10:57 PM

The percentage of people who die from a disease is based on the number who get it but recover and those who don’t. To date there has only been one study done where both numbers were known. It was done in Germany. They tested an entire town. That study showed that a full 15% of the town’s population had antibodies to COVID19. That was 3X what the people conducting the study anticipated.

What this means, if it holds up for all of Germany and other places, is a death rate not awfully different from the worse types of flu. Europe seems, outside of Germany, to have a very high death rate. If as the study indicates far more people have had mild cases, it reduces that rate to 1/3rd. Australia and New Zealand both have extremely low death rates both under 1% with similar populations to the European countries with the very high rates. Could that be because they have done a better job of tracking and testing meaning the cases they’ve found are most of the cases that there are? Only time will tell.

The true death rate in the U.S. is unknowable until widespread antibody testing is done so quit arguing about how deadly COVID 19 is or isn’t. We don’t know yet.

Yet another strange result of COVID 19 is that heart attack victims taken to hospitals are down by about 40% overall and 98% in the under 45 age group. Try and explain that! Europe has seen the same phenomenon!

1.2 million people die each year in the U.S. that averages out to 3000ish a day. Ask yourself how many of those who would have died anyway are now counted as COVID 19 deaths!

Purdyd - 4-13-2020 at 09:48 AM

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tes...

“ From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.”

“ To me it looks like we don’t yet have a large fraction of the population exposed,” says Nicholas Christakis, a doctor and social science researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive. That means there is a lot more to go even in a hard-hit part of Germany.”

If you read German

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Purdyd]

RFClark - 4-13-2020 at 10:07 AM

The point of the German study was to try and get an accurate assessment of the death rate. Which they did show was much lower than advertised! In Germany it was shown to be a little worse than the flu. As clearly stated 1.2 million Americans currently die each year of the Flu and other things!

There needs to be a study to examine political viewpoint vs. how bad the person thinks this Virus will be!

BajaNomad - 4-13-2020 at 10:32 AM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hy...

https://forward.com/news/national/442285/coronavirus-hydroxy...

Quote: Originally posted by Bob and Susan

the cure if you catch it fast

Random Mental Masturbation and ...............

MrBillM - 4-13-2020 at 10:35 AM

With massive verbal Ejaculations that aren't going to change even a tiny thing.

Selectively theorizing, citing favored statistics and wrapping them in conspiratorial coverings ad nauseam will not affect the path that the U.S. and other governments have chosen to follow.

With apologies to The Wolfe Tones:

" We're on the one road
Sharing the one load
We're on the road to God knows where
We're on the one road
It may be the wrong road
But we're together now who cares
North and South and may be victims all
We're on the one road swinging along
Singing a hopeful song "

BUT, every crisis creates its own entertaining conspiracies. Someone should come up with a board game a la "Monopoly".

Something else to do at home.

Purdyd - 4-13-2020 at 10:52 AM

The point of the German study was to try and get an accurate assessment of the death rate. Which they did show was much lower than advertised! In Germany it was shown to be a little worse than the flu. As clearly stated 1.2 million Americans currently die each year of the Flu and other things!

There needs to be a study to examine political viewpoint vs. how bad the person thinks this Virus will be!

It certainly is a more optimistic. Still pretty preliminary and I don’t see any statistics in the population demographics in this bulletin which can have a significant impact.

The other problem, is people tend to take a while to die, so generally this infection death rates rise over time, unfortunately.

The common figure for the flu is given as .1%. Let us say that is right.

.37% or 3.7 x a little bit worse or a lot worse?

I’ve seen curve matching from the diamond princess into China’s data out it at .6%

Is that a bit worse or a lot worse?

Do you believe the data out of China?

If you think the data out of China is grossly understated but that the data out of the western world is grossly overstated, how do you reconcile those viewpoints?

I don’t think covid 19 is a nothing burger but.....

The good news is Scientists and models have grossly underestimated the impact of social distancing

The United States has already peaked and we now that other models of social distancing besides China, work, Sweden for instance.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Purdyd]

AKgringo - 4-13-2020 at 10:54 AM

Ring around the rosy (scarlet fever)
A pocket full of posies (herbal protection)
Achoo... (sneezing)
Achoo...
All fall down! (game over!)

[Edited on 4-13-2020 by AKgringo]

white whale - 4-13-2020 at 11:12 AM

Quote: Originally posted by caj13

I don’t know why you would even dredge up numbers from March.

Because March is the only full month of epidemic, so far.

[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Alm]

Had to check if the toothpaste was a joke quote or real..... yes he is a nutjob ... great salesman. Rivals 45.
All that crap he sells is how he makes all his money - $.01 sugar pills for a $1.00 is pretty lucrative. So he did try to slip that into the mix. I wonder if he does it to get the eventual slap down and use that for more marketing purposes "buy it before the deep state takes it away" Or the eventual part 2, Gov took away my stuff so send in donations to help me expose the truth.

Great clip on YT of John Oliver's LWT on Jones. His main story that week so it's a long piece.

Purdyd - 4-13-2020 at 01:37 PM

Quote: Originally posted by lencho

...we now [sic] that other models of social distancing besides China, work, Sweden for instance.

The jury is still out on that: "The number of confirmed cases and deaths of people who have tested positive for coronavirus is following a similar incline to other European countries."

History will tell...

The university of Washington model says Sweden will peak in 24 days.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

If that holds true, that means whatever they implemented for social distancing will reduce the spread of the virus.

The so called rho, or exponent of exponential growth is less than one.

And they will do it without closing businesses and without closing elementary schools.

The deaths per day over the last couple of days have been very low in Sweden’. Edit: unfortunately, it seems Sweden doesn’t report deaths very well over a weekend, will have to see what happens tomorrow.

In theory other countries could adopt this model at any time and the virus would decrease.

For example, the USA could do it right now.

Yes, time will tell.

Thanks for correcting my typo. :bounce:

[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Purdyd]

[Edited on 4-13-2020 by Purdyd]

Purdyd - 4-13-2020 at 03:28 PM

This is an article which talks about the dance of R, or rho

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-th...

I thought this was a bit sensationalist in the amount of deaths and overly optimistic about “a few simple measures” when I first read.

Because there was no real data on the impact of different social distancing methods but that has changed.

“ How does this dance work?
It all turns around the R. If you remember, it’s the transmission rate. Early on in a standard, unprepared country, it’s somewhere between 2 and 3: During the few weeks that somebody is infected, they infect between 2 and 3 other people on average.
If R is above 1, infections grow exponentially into an epidemic. If it’s below 1, they die down.
During the Hammer, the goal is to get R as close to zero, as fast as possible, to quench the epidemic. In Wuhan, it is calculated that R was initially 3.9, and after the lockdown and centralized quarantine, it went down to 0.32.
But once you move into the Dance, you don’t need to do that anymore. You just need your R to stay below 1: a lot of the social distancing measures have true, hard costs on people. They might lose their job, their business, their healthy habits…
You can remain below R=1 with a few simple measures.”

BajaNomad - 4-13-2020 at 07:29 PM

BC Governor's office Twitter and FB feeds are being kept busy with updates... fyi.

Here's an update from today on the # of confirmed cases/deaths in BCN.

https://twitter.com/Jaime_BonillaV/status/124981347208847360...

https://www.facebook.com/JaimeBonillaValdez/videos/216668612...

44 new cases today in BCN.

FireShot Capture 111 - Jaime Bonilla Valdez (@Jaime_BonillaV) _ Twitter - twitter.com.jpg - 64kB

FireShot Capture 111 - Jaime Bonilla Valdez (@Jaime_BonillaV) _ Twitter - twitter.com.jpg - 64kB

RFClark - 4-13-2020 at 10:49 PM

The measures to keep “R” less than 1 may be simple to state, however that does not mean that they are without a real cost of their own. A cost not only in money but in actual dead and maimed human beings. There is a Law of unintended consequence the dimensions of which are impossible to know in advance! While there is no guarantee that a brief interruption won’t change society beyond our understanding, there is a certainty that the longer the interruption the more likely and the greater the magnitude of that change will be.

You need look no further than the aftermath of the two world wars to see examples of this in action. Anyone who thinks this is not as major as a world war is kidding themselves. None of this is to say that the changes will be either good or bad, it is to say simply that they will be different and possibly unimaginable to us just 6 short weeks ago!

This will probably be an “E Ticket Ride”!

Purdyd - 4-14-2020 at 06:03 AM

The measures to keep “R” less than 1 may be simple to state, however that does not mean that they are without a real cost of their own.!

This will probably be an “E Ticket Ride”!

Yes, keeping R less than one is simple to state. My major complaint about the article in March was that it claimed we were making decisions without information on the impact of social distancing and then without that same information claimed it would be simple to keep R low.

At the time we only had China and South Korea as examples I’d low R. And unfortunately, people seem to underestimate what lengths they have taken.

But now we have regions recovering in Europe and other models and data.

We might hope that covid 19 is only 3.7 x worse than the flu.

And every action has consequences, but doing nothing is also an option with unintended consequence.

And politically it covid 19 has been bad enough to spur totalitarian regimes to unprecedented actions.

And as we have seen in Baja, local population will take it upon themselves for action if government ignores this.

But the good news is that social distancing works better than expected.

Sweden might be the model for moving forward.

mtgoat666 - 4-14-2020 at 01:38 PM

You people want numbers. Here are numbers...
NY City today has total of 10,000 dead from COVID-19.
NYC population is 8.399 million.
1 in every 840 people or 0.12% of the population are dead from COVID-19.

paranewbi - 4-14-2020 at 02:10 PM

You people want numbers. Here are numbers...
NY City today has total of 10,000 dead from COVID-19.
NYC population is 8.399 million.
1 in every 840 people or 0.12% of the population are dead from COVID-19.

Maybe there's something to be said about living in a style where your packed in like rats.

NY numbers are not numbers that apply to 95% of the rest of us who don't live on top of each other. You can take many individual and exceptional situations that manifest dire consequences and here we see one on our TV's every night.

mtgoat666 - 4-14-2020 at 02:16 PM

You live in San Diego. You got the same urban crowding NYC has.... you are not safe just because you live in klantee or some other San Diego suburb... :light:

RFClark - 4-14-2020 at 02:21 PM

It’s beginning to seem that the higher density population centers are having a significantly higher death rate than the less densely populated adjacent areas. That said there is a 7000 year history of deadly epidemics in cities and those who can moving out to the country during them.

paranewbi - 4-14-2020 at 02:27 PM

You live in San Diego. You got the same urban crowding NYC has.... you are not safe just because you live in klantee or some other San Diego suburb... :light:

Your delusional if you think SD has the same crowding as NY goat. In my town of Santee there are 58,000 people and almost nill multi story living structures. As of yesterday there were 18 cases of covid here (google Covid cases by zip code san diego). There were 16 last week. No Fear between the ears. What you got going there goat?

mtgoat666 - 4-14-2020 at 02:31 PM

Quote: Originally posted by David K

You live in San Diego. You got the same urban crowding NYC has.... you are not safe just because you live in klantee or some other San Diego suburb... :light:

ARE YOU SERIOUS GOAT??? Lay off the THC!

Don’t be blinded by Manhattan densities,... North park, hillcrest, OB, PB, Encinitas all got densities similar to NYC boroughs of Staten island, queens, Brooklyn, Bronx,...

paranewbi - 4-14-2020 at 02:37 PM

Quote: Originally posted by David K

You live in San Diego. You got the same urban crowding NYC has.... you are not safe just because you live in klantee or some other San Diego suburb... :light:

ARE YOU SERIOUS GOAT??? Lay off the THC!

Don’t be blinded by Manhattan densities,... North park, hillcrest, OB, PB, Encinitas all got densities similar to NYC boroughs of Staten island, queens, Brooklyn, Bronx,...

Still spewing fake news Goat.

I grew up in OB and still spend a lot of time there.
I owned a home just off the Golf course in North park for seven years and still visit there.
I've lived in San Diego 64 years.
I spent a year in NY (Bronx) and was there two years ago.

There is absolutely no comparison between anything in Southern Cali and NY, let alone the list you lie about.

[Edited on 4-14-2020 by paranewbi]

mtgoat666 - 4-14-2020 at 02:44 PM

You live in San Diego. You got the same urban crowding NYC has.... you are not safe just because you live in klantee or some other San Diego suburb... :light:

18 that you know about...

92020 zip code has pop. Of 57767, and 63 known positive tests. That is 1 in every 853, or 0.117%

92071 has pop. 57,000, and 18 known positive.

What is testing rate in San Diego county?

When you go to grocery store it is possible that someone else in store at same time is asymptomatic contagious...wear your mask, wash your hands!

RFClark - 4-14-2020 at 02:52 PM

What needs to be looked at and hasn’t yet because it wouldn’t be P.C. is to what extent the homeless drug users are influencing the infection rates in the metropolitan areas. Areas with large homeless populations on the West Coast seem to have more cases and higher death rates than do Metro areas that don’t.

It’s not a subject the media wants to discuss!

paranewbi - 4-14-2020 at 02:56 PM

You live in San Diego. You got the same urban crowding NYC has.... you are not safe just because you live in klantee or some other San Diego suburb... :light:

Couldn't handle the truth about your NY falsehoods and fear mongering Goat? Now your onto got-ya's? My wife is a Covid nurse at two major hospitals in SD...you really want to argue reality with me?

I LIVE in one of the most high risk situations when she walks through our door after 12 hour shifts. We are both well versed on how to conduct ourselves when it comes to being intelligent about these kinds of concerns.

I've also seen the full parking lot at Costco and a hundred plus people lined up one shopping cart apart two hours before opening time. But you put those same people with their carts on the shore line of a local beach and they would be arrested.

Your fear mongering doesn't seem to be present at Costco and still 18 out of 58,000 of my neighbors is suppose to scare me...maybe you.

RFClark - 4-14-2020 at 03:22 PM

So “Goat” or is it only the hooves of one?

Past an inexhaustible supply of insults (think Pogo here) what’s your b.g. in the arcane medical arts?

Please elucidate us all!

A Danger Not (Much ?) Discussed ..................

MrBillM - 4-14-2020 at 04:35 PM

Mid-March, standing in line at Walmart, I observed to mi esposa that one possible (if remote ?) contagion danger unmentioned in retail locations could be the HVAC system itself.

Later, curious regarding to what extent there might have been discussion, I could only find a few examples which basically discounted the likelihood i.e. "there is no evidence ............."

Late last week, however, in an L.A. Times article regarding the offer of those idled Cruise Ships (along with hotels) for use as hospital facilities, one of the reasons given by HHS regarding unsuitability was ............... the nature of their central air conditioning systems which could spread any virus.

For those inclined to worry, worry, worry ............... add it to your list.

elgatoloco - 4-14-2020 at 04:57 PM

What needs to be looked at and hasn’t yet because it wouldn’t be P.C. is to what extent the homeless drug users are influencing the infection rates in the metropolitan areas. Areas with large homeless populations on the West Coast seem to have more cases and higher death rates than do Metro areas that don’t.

It’s not a subject the media wants to discuss!

While were at it lets look at the churches. Jesus christo! :saint:

RFClark - 4-14-2020 at 05:00 PM

Adds to your COVID-19 worry list.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/cor...

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
Actual COVID-19 spread in China from mini-split A.C. System.

So, spray the tops and bottoms of your shoes with bleach/water solution before entering the house when returning from the store

Wear a face mask in COSTCO.

Take a shower and wash your clothes upon returning from shopping. Always add bleach to your washer. Run your dishwasher on the sanitize cycle.

Really paranoid? Leave packaged food in the garage, keep cold stuff in the garage refrigerator until used. Wipe exteriors of packages and cans with bleach solution!

John Harper - 4-14-2020 at 05:08 PM

Have you even read the Los Angeles Times for the last two months? There are articles about the homeless population and covid almost daily, and a section on Sunday about feeding homeless during the covid crisis. It's pretty much most the coverage in the California section. Check it out.

John

[Edited on 4-15-2020 by John Harper]

RFClark - 4-14-2020 at 05:20 PM

No, I don’t read the Left Angeles Times on line it costs $$$ as does the S.D. News Paper. Since I no longer live within the effective safe distance of either I won’t spend the money!

RFClark - 4-14-2020 at 05:47 PM

I have a button on my iPad that says “News” plus BBCNews and others! If the LA Times wants to charge for their stuff like the Scientologists I’m good with that! That said LA is only one of many metro areas that have large homeless populations of drug users. There’s not much coming out of any of them.

Since these populations have Hepatitis, Typhoid and other communicable diseases COVID-19 is not an unreasonable assumption.

mtgoat666 - 4-14-2020 at 06:01 PM