BajaNomad

Will Mexico Be The Next Venezuela?

Ateo - 11-22-2022 at 11:01 PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/opinion/will-mexico-be-th...

In 2018, I wrote a column calling the soon-to-be-elected Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, a left-wing version of Donald Trump. Readers were unpersuaded. The comparison between the two men, wrote one person in the comments section, “was absurd.” Another called the column “shockingly ignorant.”

Let me recant. AMLO isn’t just another version of Trump. He’s worse, thanks to being a more effective demagogue and bureaucratic operator.

That was again made clear when Mexicans took to the streets on Nov. 13 in demonstrations against AMLO’s efforts to gut the National Electoral Institute, known by its Spanish acronym, INE. Over three decades, the state-funded but independent public agency (previously called the Federal Electoral Institute) has been vital to Mexico’s transition from one-party rule to a competitive democracy in which incumbent parties routinely lose elections — and accept the results.

So why would the president — who won in a landslide and maintains a high approval rating, thanks to a cult-of-personality style of politics and a policy of cash transfers to the poor, his core constituency — go after the crown jewel of the country’s civil institutions? Isn’t he supposed to represent the forces of popular democracy?

AMLO’s answer is that he merely aims to make INE more democratic by having its members elected by popular vote after the candidates are nominated by institutions under his control. He would also reduce INE’s funding, take away its power to draw up voter rolls and get rid of state electoral authorities. In a Trumpian turn of phrase, AMLO calls his critics “racists, snobs and very hypocritical.”

Reality is otherwise. AMLO is a product of the old ruling party, the P.R.I., which dominated nearly every aspect of Mexican political life from the late 1920s to the 1990s. Ideologically, the party was split between two wings: modernizing technocrats versus statist nationalists. But the party was united in its devotion to patronage, repression, corruption and, above all, presidential control as a means of perpetuating its hold on power.

AMLO may have belonged to the statist wing, but his ideas about governance are straight out of the old P.R.I. playbook, only this time in favor of his own Morena party. “His thrust all along has been to recreate the 1970s: an overpowering presidency with no counterweights,” Luis Rubio, one of Mexico’s leading thinkers, wrote me on Monday. “He has thus gone on to undermine, eliminate or neutralize a whole network of entities meant to become checks on presidential power.” That includes the Supreme Court, the country’s regulatory agencies and Mexico’s human rights commission. INE and the country’s central bank are among the few entities that have remained relatively free from his control.

What would it mean if AMLO were to get his way? His six-year presidential term expires in 2024, and it’s unlikely he would remain formally in office. But there’s an old Mexican tradition of rule from behind the scenes. Stuffing INE with cronies is the first step back to the old ballot-stuffing days that characterized the Mexico I grew up in the 1970s and ’80s.

But it also marks a deeper deterioration, in three important ways.

First, there’s the ever-expanding role of the military under AMLO. “The military is now operating outside civilian control, in open defiance of the Mexican Constitution, which states that the military cannot be in charge of public security,” notes the Mexican political analyst Denise Dresser in the current issue of Foreign Affairs. “As a result of presidential decrees, the military has become omnipresent: building airports, running the country’s ports, controlling customs, distributing money to the poor, implementing social programs and detaining immigrants.”


The second is that the Mexican government has effectively capitulated to drug cartels, which, by one estimate, control as much as a third of the country. That was brought home two years ago, after the Trump administration handed back to Mexico a former defense minister, Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos, who had been arrested in California and accused of working for the cartels. AMLO promptly released the general. Eight of the world’s most dangerous cities are now in Mexico, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Opinion, and 45,000 Mexicans fled their homes, fearing violence, in 2021.

Finally, AMLO’s new statism works even worse than the old one. An attempted overhaul of Mexico’s health system has led to catastrophic medicine shortages. He has invested heavily in the state-owned oil company, PEMEX, which is still managing to lose money, despite record high commodity prices. Welfare spending is up by 20 percent over the previous administration, but AMLO has done away with one of Mexico’s most successful anti-poverty programs, which tied aid to keeping kids in school.

AMLO’s defenders may rejoin that the president remains popular with most Mexicans, thanks to his professed concern for the very poor. That’s often been the case with populists, from Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey to the Kirchner governments in Argentina. But reality has a way of catching up. What Mexicans increasingly face under AMLO is an assault on their economic well-being, personal security and political freedom and the rule of law itself. If Mexicans aren’t careful, this will be their road to Venezuela.


[Edited on 11-23-2022 by Ateo]

JZ - 11-22-2022 at 11:25 PM

Never, ever trust anything from the NYT's.

Use to be a legit paper. In 2022 it is the worst possible political rag.

Ateo - 11-22-2022 at 11:35 PM

Quote: Originally posted by JZ  
Never, ever trust anything from the NYT's.

Use to be a legit paper. In 2022 it is the worst possible political rag.



Did you read it? It's written by a well known RIGHT WING REPUBLICAN.

Calling it the "worst possible political rag" just makes you look stupid. Come on man, you can be better than this.

[Edited on 11-23-2022 by Ateo]

john68 - 11-23-2022 at 08:44 AM

Stephens is probably the best writer at the NYT, former writer at the WSJ, but hardly right wing and doubtful he is a republican.

AMLO organized and operated a shadow government after he lost his first presidential election. I expect Mexico will survive AMLO; it has survived worse.



Marty Mateo - 11-23-2022 at 09:44 AM

A interesting read ,thanks for posting . It mirrored a lot of a discussion I had with a Mexican citizen last week.

tomieharder - 11-23-2022 at 09:47 AM

This article echo's the general consensus in Mexico. 800,000 people demonstrated in Mexico City against AMLOs proposal to castrate the INE.

Everybody in Mexico is talking about this.

RFClark - 11-23-2022 at 10:05 AM

If there is a Republican in the NYT building or employed by it, they are there to clean the restrooms!

Let’s examine “the expanding role of the Mexican Military” and “The Cartels control a third of the country” unless the NYT is making the case that they are one and the same, those two things seem to be inconsistent.

The NYT sees “problems” with universal healthcare in Mexico! The NYT should look at Canada and the UK if it wishes to see the problems of “free universal healthcare” where things are so bad that Scotland is openly discussing making those with money pay for their “free healthcare” and both have very long waits for care and general shortages no matter what they spend on their systems.


[Edited on 11-23-2022 by RFClark]

mtgoat666 - 11-23-2022 at 11:42 AM

The NYTimes is simply great!
Been a subscriber forever.
Arts and culture coverage is great. National and intl news coverage is great. And i like their editorial page. Even right wingnut NYT-haters aspire to get their opeds in NYT, they complain about NYT, but they all dream of getting their opeds published in NYT.
I must say that NYTt food section beats all others online. Their recipes are reliably great. So man food recipes on the internet are like the internet, crap postings - can never go wrong pulling recipes from NYT archives.

JZ - 11-23-2022 at 11:48 AM

This article highlights the NYT's fall from grace. Sam Bankman-Fried just defrauded investors of $30B. The NYT's wrote the most incredible piece ever on this sicko.

Never trust the NYT's.

https://nypost.com/2022/11/15/ny-times-ripped-for-softball-a...



RFClark - 11-23-2022 at 12:01 PM

Goat,

Perhaps the NYT food section will publish a good recipe for Stone Soup. We’re going to need it!

mtgoat666 - 11-23-2022 at 12:24 PM

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  

The NYT sees “problems” with universal healthcare in Mexico! The NYT should look at Canada and the UK if it wishes to see the problems of “free universal healthcare”


Clarkie,
Your senility is showing! The nyt oped was about mexico, not Canada or uk! The oped was focused on amlo, not healthcare!
Stay focused, fight your brain fog!

Tacayo - 11-23-2022 at 01:20 PM

The author, Brett Stephens is indeed a conservative according to wikipedia. Interestingly, he grew up in Mexico City and is fluent in Spanish.
With AMLO trying to change the electoral infrastructure in Mexico you have to wonder if he has his sights set on repealing the prohibition on one term presidents.
When I've asked Mexicans in Baja how AMLO is doing they overwhelmingly approve. When I ask why they say he's helped the old and poor and that he cares about the regular people. Others have said they like that he lives a modest lifestyle unlike the past presidents and that he doesn't travel around with a big entourage like even the local pols do.

JZ - 11-23-2022 at 01:46 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Tacayo  
Others have said they like that he lives a modest lifestyle unlike the past presidents and that he doesn't travel around with a big entourage like even the local pols do.


I was flying my drone in San Carlos, Sonora. The president was visiting. Flying the drone I could see a huge compound of military where they had setup a base ahead of his arrival.

It was just outside the town in a sparsely populated area. You couldn't see it from the road and I just found it when doing some filming. Probably have the footage somewhere.


willardguy - 11-23-2022 at 02:03 PM

Quote: Originally posted by JZ  
Quote: Originally posted by Tacayo  
Others have said they like that he lives a modest lifestyle unlike the past presidents and that he doesn't travel around with a big entourage like even the local pols do.


I was flying my drone in San Carlos, Sonora. The president was visiting. Flying the drone I could see a huge compound of military where they had setup a base ahead of his arrival.

It was just outside the town in a sparsely populated area. You couldn't see it from the road and I just found it when doing some filming. Probably have the footage somewhere.




now there's some fascinating chit! can't wait to see that footage:rolleyes:

[Edited on 11-23-2022 by willardguy]

JDCanuck - 11-23-2022 at 03:33 PM

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  
If there is a Republican in the NYT building or employed by it, they are there to clean the restrooms!

Let’s examine “the expanding role of the Mexican Military” and “The Cartels control a third of the country” unless the NYT is making the case that they are one and the same, those two things seem to be inconsistent.

The NYT sees “problems” with universal healthcare in Mexico! The NYT should look at Canada and the UK if it wishes to see the problems of “free universal healthcare” where things are so bad that Scotland is openly discussing making those with money pay for their “free healthcare” and both have very long waits for care and general shortages no matter what they spend on their systems.

“Rule from behind the scenes”, exactly who is it President Joe will “get in trouble with if he talks to the press” past the rigged exchanges?

But that’s the NYT who sees no evil if whoever has a “D” after their name or is simply named Cuomo!


On Canada's dismal at present state of healthcare. Only 30 years ago Canada's universal healthcare ranked among the top 3 globally for outcomes and efficiency. It outperformed the private sector in both efficiency and effectiveness. Once the politicians increasingly took control and began "ïmproving" it, it has been stripped of healthcare staffing, increased bureaucratic (mis)management and wholly ineffective numerous committees to study why it was heading downhill especially in wait times and lack of availability. Church and society run community elected Admistrators were removed from managemnt as their ethics did not align with the government in power and replaced with politically appointed CEOs with a new "productivity time"not client focused directive. Wait times continue to expand to the point where if you need timely healthcare you must now pay to find it in another country.
Universal healthcare when it runs effectively benefits the whole of society in keeping the society healthy. Just don't let a bunch of politicians take it over.
Sweden and the other Scandinavian countries in the meantime have managed to expand the benefits to their countries of universal healthcare. Their far better outcomes during Covid reflect this. Mexico would do well to copy the Scandinavian patient focused design.



[Edited on 11-23-2022 by JDCanuck]

RFClark - 11-23-2022 at 03:57 PM

Goat,

My point is universal healthcare doesn’t work in large or diverse countries. You can’t blame AMLO for that. Be sure and post that soup recipe when you see it!

As I post this I can’t help but notice that the YL at the bottom of the page has a really great place where she keeps her cellphone!

[Edited on 11-23-2022 by RFClark]

pacificobob - 11-24-2022 at 07:37 AM

Shall we assume you are not enrolled in Medicare clark?

RFClark - 11-24-2022 at 08:52 AM

PB,

I have always had private insurance as a part of my benefits package. It (the private insurance) still covers me in Mexico. When I (and almost all other US citizens) turn 65 I was required to enroll in at least one part of Medicare. I was also required to pay for the “privilege” so it’s not “free universal healthcare”. Medicare doesn’t cover me in Mexico. This makes it less useful. (read as useless!)

I would be delighted to point out the problems with mandatory government healthcare systems but Doug says that I can’t cause it’s not about Mexico. Mexico has a really poor universal system but allows fee for service medical too which is where everyone who can afford it goes!

I also believe that people from countries with no fee for service system come to Mexico for medical and dental services which they pay for here.

I think that speaks volumes about mandatory government healthcare systems.



elgatoloco - 11-25-2022 at 03:42 PM

Quote: Originally posted by Ateo  
Quote: Originally posted by JZ  
Never, ever trust anything from the NYT's.

Use to be a legit paper. In 2022 it is the worst possible political rag.



Did you read it? It's written by a well known RIGHT WING REPUBLICAN.

Calling it the "worst possible political rag" just makes you look stupid. Come on man, you can be better than this.

[Edited on 11-23-2022 by Ateo]


No he can't be better. Confirmation bias.

elgatoloco - 11-25-2022 at 03:46 PM

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  
If there is a Republican in the NYT building or employed by it, they are there to clean the restrooms!

[Edited on 11-23-2022 by RFClark]


In their current state that's about all they are qualified to do.

No disrespect to all the hard working blue collar folks from Baja who clean restrooms.

RFClark - 11-25-2022 at 07:11 PM

Crazy Cat,

That would be both pejorative and political. Please remove it or Doug will!

surabi - 11-27-2022 at 08:46 PM

Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  
Goat,

My point is universal healthcare doesn’t work in large or diverse countries.



[Edited on 11-23-2022 by RFClark]


Your point is incorrect. Refer to JCanuck's post re the Canadian healthcare system. It used to work just fine, and Canada is certainly a large and diverse country.

JZ - 11-27-2022 at 08:55 PM

Speaking of Venezuela.

The adminstration in its infinite wisdom just granted Chevron the right to start pumping oil again from that awful dictatorship.

They don't want US based oil investment, but support getting oil from brutal dictatorships.

Makes perfect sense.



[Edited on 11-28-2022 by JZ]