Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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NOAA RELEASES EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE
Below Normal Seasonal Activity Expected in 2005
May 16, 2005 - NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, today released its 2005 East Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook. The outlook
calls for a high likelihood of below normal activity. NOAA scientists are expecting 11-15 tropical storms. Six to eight of these are expected to
become hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes.
?There tends to be a seesaw affect between the East Pacific and North Atlantic hurricane seasons,? said Jim Laver, director, NOAA?s Climate Prediction
Center in Camp Springs, Md. ?When there is above normal seasonal activity in the Atlantic there tends to be below normal seasonal activity in the
Pacific. This has been especially true since 1995. Six of the last ten East Pacific hurricane seasons have been below normal, and NOAA scientists are
expecting lower levels of activity again this season.?
The seesaw effect between the East Pacific and North Atlantic hurricane seasons occurs because the two dominant climate factors that control much of
the activity in both regions often act to suppress activity in one region while enhancing it in the other.
Like the Atlantic hurricane season, the El Ni?o/La Ni?a cycle is a dominant climate factor influencing the East Pacific hurricane season. ?However,
this hurricane season we are most likely to be in a neutral pattern in regards to El Ni?o/La Ni?a,? said Vernon Kousky, NOAA?s El Ni?o/La Ni?a expert.
While the thought of a hurricane is a sobering image to many people, there are some positive aspects in regards to the East Pacific hurricane season.
In contrast to its sibling - the North Atlantic hurricane season, which can cause deadly storms in the southern and eastern United States - ?the East
Pacific hurricane season can bring much needed precipitation to the usually dry southwestern United States during the summer months,? said Muthuvel
Chelliah, NOAA?s Climate Prediction Center?s lead coordinator for the East and Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlooks.
?Most East Pacific tropical storms trek westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii and beyond. Yet, during any given season, one or two
tropical storms can either head northward or re-curve toward western Mexico, ? said Chelliah.
After two years of successful experimental outlooks issued by NOAA in 2003 and 2004, the East Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook becomes an operational
product this year. Unlike the North Atlantic, the East Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook does not have a scheduled mid-season update at this time.
The East Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30, with peak activity occurring during July through September. In a normal
season, the East Pacific would expect 15 or 16 tropical storms. Nine of these would become hurricanes, of which four or five would be major
hurricanes.
The East Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook is a product of NOAA?s Climate Prediction Center, Hurricane Research Division and National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane Center has forecasting responsibilities for the East Pacific region.
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research
of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation?s coastal and marine resources.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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bajalou
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4459
Registered: 3-11-2004
Location: South of the broder
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Well, sounds good - time will tell.
Thanks Bruce
No Bad Days
\"Never argue with an idiot. People watching may not be able to tell the difference\"
\"The trouble with doing nothing is - how do I know when I\'m done?\"
Nomad Baja Interactive map
And in the San Felipe area - check out Valle Chico area |
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
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Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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Predictions
Aside from the fact that the accuracy of predictions compiled by the "Experts" could be surpassed by someone using a Quija board, there are a lot of
words used here to say what everyone already knows.
I don't know if everyone affected by each Eastern Pacific Hurricane season tracks them with the attention that I do, but I suspect that most do.
Having done so year after year, you find that rarely does the storm track according to "Expert" predictions. Last season was a classic example.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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I for one will not be getting rid of all my weather bookmarks, I dont care what they say!
BUT I sure hope that they are right.
This early one, Adrian, doesnt exactly follow the pattern anyway. So what does that mean?
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15938
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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last season was a joke! i listen to the EXPERTS about as much as i do the weatherman.
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