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Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
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Baja Land Speculation
A few weeks back, I drove down to Ensenada for lunch. I was amazed with all the new condo developments along the way. I saw prices from 150K on up.
It seems as if much of the real estate fervor of Southern California has reached into Baja.
Now here's my question to all the Nomads...Do you think that the Baja market will collapse as a result of the tightening real estate market in
Southern California?
San Diego is already slowing down. I don't think there is a bubble, at least here, because there is too much demand, a growing economy, and not
enough developable land. None of those factors are present in Baja, though. Also, people are more likely to walk from a vacation home than their
primary one. What will happen if interest rates rise and people become spooked with real estate just as people became skittish towards the stock
market a few years back.
Just curious as to what everyone thinks?
Zac
[Edited on 9-19-2005 by Bajaboy]
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Skeet/Loreto
Ultra Nomad
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I think that the slowing of the market in San diego will help the Market in and around TJ
I think the market in Mulege, Loreto, La Paz and the East Cape will be good for many years. I like La Paz because of its location and flavor.
I am looking into some new Homes to be built above the Hotel marina in the $2oo's. I know the people invloved and it should appreciate very good in
the next few years.
I like anything around Loreto but the Villages of Loreto Bay. I am concerned about the Water. We shall see.
Skeet
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jerry
Super Nomad
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real estate is a lot different that stocks first of all its real there not making anymore land and i do think theres way too mutch money out there in
the hands of the baby boomers for bubble to break any time soon and this is just the beginning of the baby bummers with all the IRAS PENTIONS,STOCK
OPTIONS, MUTUAL FUNDS, AND OTHER SAVING THAT WILL BE CASHED IN THERE HAS TO BE A PLACE TO PUT THE BUCKS if you look at the history in the long run
dirt has been a great investment now some things that are built on the land might be a different story i can say that its been a great long term
investment for me have a good one jerry
jerry and judi
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Dave
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6005
Registered: 11-5-2002
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajaboy
Do you think that the Baja market will collapse as a result of the tightening real estate market in Southern California?
Also, people are more likely to walk from a vacation home than their primary one. |
With rare exception, homes (in Baja) are bought with cash. If there is a crash I would expect folks would first walk away from a mortgage. 
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Gypsy Jan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4275
Registered: 1-27-2004
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Mood: Depends on which way the wind is blowing
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Reposted from Sharks thread on Baja's future
Well, many somebodies
are betting big time on big growth on the so-called "Gold Coast" between Playas de TJ and Ensenada.
Playa Blanca (just south of Playas TJ) and surroundings have websites and ads promoting huge "quality living, fully self-contained resort
communities".
There are two separate high rise towers finishing out and taking deposits near Fox Studios/Popotla, (despite the court fight about land ownership
concerning one of them).
Calafia (the tower) is building a second one.
Calafia (the hotel) is building a tower.
Club Marena is finishing out the rebuild of the burned tower and building a fourth one.
Montebello (?, not sure of name, but Coldwell Banker has offices there) is building a high rise.
Between there and La Fonda, there are several developments building busily away, including the new Polo Club, which will host a meet in October.
That's not even to mention the Baja Las Vegas development near Bajamar and the Ventanas al Mar in the zona de fallas on the road to Ensenada.
As Skeet has said, "Where is the water?" and, by inference, where's the infrastructure and services to support all this?"
Myself, knowing the history of the burnout at Club Marena, I would never, ever live in or own a property over three stories high. And I certainly
would never, ever live in a complicated, high rise building that requires a reliance on the proper maintenance skills and dedication of others.
Adding to my original post: Real estate developer attitudes are very different here and I don't know through what prism they view the future. After
the peso devaluation of '94, many developments were left in the state they were and are now being restarted. Banks that acquire defaulted land don't
fix or lower the price for it, they insist on getting full price, but that may all be changing with the new financial landscape and the
internationalized banking structure.
I guess it all goes back to, "Know before you go", i.e., research, research and research before you write that check. And if you can't afford to lose
if you make a mistake, then, don't do it.
[Edited on 9-19-2005 by Gypsy Jan]
“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow mindedness.”
—Mark Twain
\"La vida es dura, el corazon es puro, y cantamos hasta la madrugada.” (Life is hard, the heart is pure and we sing until dawn.)
—Kirsty MacColl, Mambo de la Luna
\"Alea iacta est.\"
—Julius Caesar
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Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
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| Quote: | Originally posted by jerry
real estate is a lot different that stocks first of all its real there not making anymore land and i do think theres way too mutch money out there in
the hands of the baby boomers for bubble to break any time soon and this is just the beginning of the baby bummers with all the IRAS PENTIONS,STOCK
OPTIONS, MUTUAL FUNDS, AND OTHER SAVING THAT WILL BE CASHED IN THERE HAS TO BE A PLACE TO PUT THE BUCKS if you look at the history in the long run
dirt has been a great investment now some things that are built on the land might be a different story i can say that its been a great long term
investment for me have a good one jerry |
Jerry-I agree with you for the most part except that real estate historically has produced an average return of 6 percent while the stock market has
averaged closer to a 15 percent return.
My thinking is that many people in SD are tapping into their home's equity to purchase additional properties. As interest rates rise and appreciation
get back to normal (3-5%), will the demand still be there for a $350,000 condo?
I'm enjoying the input and look forward to hearing more thoughts on the subject.
Zac
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Diver
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4729
Registered: 11-15-2004
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There won't be a serious "bubble" or downturn in that market due to housing excesses or pricing. It's a disposable income market, for the most part.
If you could be certain of the security of your money, many areas in Baja would be investor dreams.
We could start a "Nomad Investment Group". What do you think ?
As I have done in the past for major corporations in the states, we could prioritize the desireability of property in various locations and then
research the potentially available parcels.
Anyone elso want to try an offer for El Requeson ? Coyote ?
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Dave
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6005
Registered: 11-5-2002
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Gypsy Jan
Myself, knowing the history of the burnout at Club Marena, I would never, ever live in or own a property over three stories high. And I
certainly would never, ever live in a complicated, high rise building that requires a reliance on the proper maintenance skills and dedication of
others. |
They rebuilt the Marena tower without a sprinkler system. I asked the builder why and he said it wasn't in the budget. (The budget the
insurance companies provided.)
Go figure. 
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9234
Registered: 10-3-2003
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Dave
With rare exception, homes (in Baja) are bought with cash. |
True for the most part, but there are many lenders setting up shop in Cabo. I've also heard some main stream lenders are working business plans now.
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9234
Registered: 10-3-2003
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Diver
There won't be a serious "bubble" or downturn in that market due to housing excesses or pricing. It's a disposable income market, for the most part.
If you could be certain of the security of your money, many areas in Baja would be investor dreams.
We could start a "Nomad Investment Group". What do you think ?
As I have done in the past for major corporations in the states, we could prioritize the desireability of property in various locations and then
research the potentially available parcels.
Anyone elso want to try an offer for El Requeson ? Coyote ?
. |
Diver: I'm up for hearing more.
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jerry
Super Nomad
Posts: 1354
Registered: 10-10-2003
Location: loreto
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zac im not too sure about the percentage but if you buy a house at market value not inflated value or in inflated times rent it out it makes it own
payment and gives you a great tax advantage so you can buy another and another then they all apreacachate in value and rent goes up it turns into a
cash mechine and you have a hedge against inflation you keep depreacating them then do a 1031 exchange and up grade you will be buying them soon with
dallars that other wize would be going to uncle sam when your readdy to sell them live in each for at least 2 yrs and you will only pay tax on the
amount you depreacated
its not the same if you only have your own house but its the way to start and get the best intrest rate just dont sell it or refi it and take cash
rent it out when you deside to buy anorther in essaents uncle sam provides an insentive to invest if your intrested in quick bucks??? play craps
have a good one jerry
jerry and judi
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Al G
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2647
Registered: 12-19-2004
Location: Todos Santos/Full time for now...
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Mood: Wondering what is next???
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Diver
| Quote: | Originally posted by Diver
There won't be a serious "bubble" or downturn in that market due to housing excesses or pricing. It's a disposable income market, for the most part.
If you could be certain of the security of your money, many areas in Baja would be investor dreams.
We could start a "Nomad Investment Group". What do you think ?
As I have done in the past for major corporations in the states, we could prioritize the desireability of property in various locations and then
research the potentially available parcels.
Anyone elso want to try an offer for El Requeson ? Coyote ?
. |
I am interested, but it may be beyond my risk desire.
Al
Albert G
Remember, if you haven\'t got a smile on your face and laughter in your heart, then you are just a sour old fart!....
The most precious thing we have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value.
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jerry
Super Nomad
Posts: 1354
Registered: 10-10-2003
Location: loreto
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jz to me there are way too many verabiles in mexico no set rules to go by language barrier ****ure differences im sure theres lots of bucks to be
made but ill keep it in a counrty that i can at least understand the language
besides i love mexico and my little piece of heaven i dont want to risk my happiness there have a good one jerry
jerry and judi
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9234
Registered: 10-3-2003
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Jerry: talk about not understanding the laugage, seems we have that issue with English in the US. Can you restate. 
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capn.sharky
Senior Nomad
Posts: 686
Registered: 9-4-2003
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first of all its real there not making anymore land ). True, they are or they're not making any more land but bare dirt does not provide an income
either. Skeet and I agree on the Loreto Bay project.....it sucks. Were in the hell will they get the water. Who will treat all the sewage and
Canadians do produce alot of sewage. Only the French produce more per person. True, your own home is the first and best investment one can make.
Mine has gone up ten fold (at least) since I bought it in June of 75. I am not a stockbroker but I would think a good solid portfolio of stocks and
bonds should come before land speculation. I have too many friend who were millionaires young and went broke during the busts. Just my thoughts to
any that are interested.
If there is no fishing in heaven, I am not going
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jerry
Super Nomad
Posts: 1354
Registered: 10-10-2003
Location: loreto
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simple my investments will remain im the us my little piece of heaven in mexico is for my pleasure not figured as an investment ill die with it have
a good one jerry ps i type with one finger and never look back   
jerry and judi
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9234
Registered: 10-3-2003
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Apparently, you never heard of a little thing called a "comma" either , but good
philosophy
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jerry
Super Nomad
Posts: 1354
Registered: 10-10-2003
Location: loreto
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in my mind time shares, condos, buying into a big comglomerate pie in the sky, isnt investing in real estate and i agree that loreto village has a lot
of up hill to goand i dont own any of itand dont want any part of it
i just hope that the mexicans do ok with it could care less about the investors they can make there own desisions
a very welthy old friend of mind told me a long time ago you have to get a lot while your young wink 
jerry and judi
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jerry
Super Nomad
Posts: 1354
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Location: loreto
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jz you a spelling or english teacher??
jerry and judi
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9234
Registered: 10-3-2003
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Defintely not!
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