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Bruce R Leech
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Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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| Quote: | Originally posted by JZ
It is heading straight for San Carlos, Sonora!
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I think lane is going inland way south of San Carolos. I may end up with egg all over my face but I just cant see where these Models are taking all
of the deferent wind layers in to account. I am far from being any kind of an expert but I call um as I see them.
[Edited on 9-16-2006 by Bruce R Leech]
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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BajaNews
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THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN
EARLIER. LANE IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS
MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE
MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED
AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR 36-48 HR...THEN STARTS TO DIVERGE BETWEEN A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN TO 3 KT AFTER 48 HR
IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD AND THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.
LANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 30C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS LONG
AS THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO TANGLES UP WITH LAND. INDEED...THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A 43 PRESENT
CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS LANE UP THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH 72 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND LESS WEAKENING THEREAFTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS. THERE IS TWO SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
FORECAST. THE FIRST IS THAT LANE HAS A SMALL CENTRAL CORE...AND
COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THEN EXPECTED. THE SECOND
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION...AS THE INTENSITY COULD
WELL BE LESS THAN FORECAST IF LANE VEERS OFF THE FORECAST TRACK.
IF LANE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.
HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ONSHORE.
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bajajudy
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Posts: 6886
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Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Kat
Yes they have put unbelievable amounts of rocks on the breakwaters. We got very little surge from John and will probably get less from Lane, if
he/she continues on the current track.
I live on the road into La Playa. I walk by La Serena every morning with my dogs...a big hurricane with a high surge and that place will be toast.
Built in the dunes too close to the beach. They had a good bit of erosion around the complex from John.
The road will undoubtably go out again. It looks like they may have started some work on the bridge. There is a crew of about 40 workers down by the
arroyo making what looks like iron columns for bridge footings.
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JESSE
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Lane is a Hurricane, my early prediction is that it turns into the sea of cortez and hits baja at a category 2 or perhaps 3. Anybody from the Eastcape
to Mulege should prepare.
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BajaNews
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HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006
...LANE BECOMES A HURRICANE WITH MORE STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND FROM EL
ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
65 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF LANE NEAR THE ISLAS MARIAS TONIGHT. WHILE THE CENTER
OF LANE IS FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 985
MB...29.09 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...106.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT LANE HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE
PRESSURE FELL FROM 989 TO 985 MB IN ABOUT 90 MIN...ALONG WITH
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
EYEWALL. THE EYE...WHICH IS MAKING OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS 8-9 N MI WIDE. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT. THIS SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB
AND 65 KT FROM SAB.
LANE HAS TURNED RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 340/8. THIS TURN WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE
NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR 36 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
THE GFDL IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...
BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 30 HR. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND
CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH
GRADUAL DECELERATION. THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
IN 60-72 HR. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE
COAST EARLIER.
IF LANE WERE WELL AWAY FROM LAND...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS...AND THE SMALL EYE STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN OUTER BAND IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OVER LAND. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE SMALL EYE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
LAND TO REACH 95 KT IN 36 HR BEFORE INCREASING LAND INTERACTION
STOPS INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY SHIPS AND
THE GFDL...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDN. ANY MOTION
CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF CIRCULATION ON
LAND AND WOULD LIKELY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
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Hook
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Location: Sonora
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Regardless of where its specific track takes it, it's almost certain to bring flash flooding on parts of the peninsula.
Three of the four computer models are predicting a path that would bring rain to the mountains above Mulege.
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bbbait
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That's right Hook, and the ground is still saturated so the bank storage is at a minimum... same amount of rain will produce more water downstream.
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Sharksbaja
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Whereitgoes
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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take your pick . but I don't think we are going to get much if any here in Mulege but they are going to get some on the east cape 
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
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People stand in line to board a flight back to the U.S. in the Los Cabos airport, Mexico on Friday Sept. 15, 2006. Tourists cut short their vacations
as tropical storm Lane was expected to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours and is on course to affect the southern tip of the Baja
peninsula.(AP Photo/Dario Lopez-Mills)
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BajaNews
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HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006
...LANE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
...PASSING JUST WEST OF ISLAS MARIAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z......THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 240
MILES...390 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EYE OF HURRICANE
LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LANE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...21.2 N...106.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.
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cat127
Junior Nomad
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Registered: 7-23-2006
Location: Hawaii
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The Big Picture.....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/wv.jpg
Fate Smiles as Destiny laughs!
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Fly Baja
Newbie
Posts: 16
Registered: 11-19-2003
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Mood: Lead, Follow, O
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storm Lane
Judy,
Is that tract accurate. NOAA shows lane going up the west coast of mainland Mexico and on mainland at around Los Mochis.
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BajaNews
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http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/mexico/20060915-1727-hurr...
By Will Weissert
5:27 p.m. September 15, 2006
CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico – Tropical Storm Lane became a Category 2 hurricane Friday as it roared toward the tip of the Baja California Peninsula,
lashing Mexico's Pacific coast, flooding port cities and causing a landslide that killed a 7-year-old boy.
The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning for the southern tip of the peninsula, the prison colony of Islas Marias and a 175-mile stretch of
coast on the mainland that included the resort of Mazatlan.
The hurricane had maximum sustained winds near 100 mph and was expected to strengthen. At 8 p.m. EDT, it was 240 miles east-southeast of the Mexican
resort of Cabo San Lucas, moving north-northwest at nearly 13 mph. It was passing just west of Islas Marias.
Lane was following the roughly the same path as Hurricane John, which raked Mexico's Pacific coast early this month before slamming into Baja
California, killing five people and damaging 160 homes.
It was forecast to move parallel to the coast before brushing the tip of the peninsula this weekend, then heading back toward the Mexican mainland.
The eye of the storm was expected to hit land near Los Mochis early Monday. It was then forecast to dissipate in Mexican without reaching the United
States.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami warned that if Lane deviated to the east, it could cause hurricane conditions near Mexico's Pacific coast.
The resort of Cabo San Lucas was sunny and hot Friday, but tourists were scrambling to catch flights before the storm hit.
Ellen Fiersten, from Springfield, Ill., was spending her 60th birthday waiting in long lines at the airport.
“We were just happy to find a flight out,” said the retiree. “We've got a lot of family waiting at home, and they were going to be very worried. It's
paradise down here. You really never want to leave, especially not early.”
Alan Murphy, a 59-year-old retiree from Las Vegas, also wasn't taking any chances. He was on a flight home Friday, three days before he was scheduled
to end a deep-sea fishing trip.
“If it hits land, where do the tourists go?” he said. “They'll have to evacuate, and we don't want to be a part of that. They are going to get hit
really bad. The highways are still really bad because of the last hurricane, and now they are going to get hit again.”
Residents, still recovering from John, were boarding up windows again Friday and stocking up on supplies.
Lane was already causing flooding in the port city of Lazaro Card##as in the central state of Michoacan, where more than 500 people were evacuated
from their homes after a canal overflowed, officials said.
Earlier, the storm dumped rain and whipped up waves in Acapulco. Officials said a 7-year-old boy was killed late Thursday in a landslide caused by the
heavy rains. Authorities rescued three fisherman whose boat capsized but they were still looking for the captain, state officials said.
About 200 homes were flooded in Acapulco, and officials closed the port to small boats and shut down schools Friday across the state of Guerrero.
Streets were covered in up to 16 inches of water – including the beachside Costera Miguel Aleman, which runs past many luxury hotels.
There was also some flooding at the Acapulco airport, although service was not interrupted.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
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Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Report from San Jose 9:54mdt 15-09
very calm. VERY HUMID
no stars. has been overcast since about 5pm
eerie.
the calm before the storm.
quien sabe
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
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HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006
...HURRICANE LANE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
ISLAS MARIAS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF
SINALOA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES
...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
WHILE THE CENTER OF LANE HAS RECENTLY WOBBLED TO THE NORTH...IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY NEAR OR ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE INLAND
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LANE A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...FROM COLIMA TO PUERTO VALLARTA
AND CULIACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...22.2 N...106.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
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BajaNews
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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE RADAR PRESENTATION FROM LOS
CABOS MEXICO...AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT THAT LANE
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS OF -80C SURROUNDING
THE SMALL 9 N MI EYE. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE ISLA MARIAS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RAW T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY INCREASE TO 90 KT.
BASED ON THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PATTERN OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CURRENT EYEWALL
STRUCTURE TRENDS...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR
30C...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING AFTER
LANDFALL BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION IN 12
HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD. AROUND THE 48
HOUR PERIOD...THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THE NOGAPS
INDICATES INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LANE WHICH CAUSES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA...CONTINUING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS. THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE UNREASONABLE SIZE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FIELDS. THE GFDL AND THE GFS AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST AN EARLIER LANDFALL EVENT IN 24 HOURS JUST
EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING
LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH CALLS FOR
LANDFALL NEAR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION
TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL/GFS SOLUTION WOULD
BRING LANE TO THE COAST EARLIER.
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
Posts: 1439
Registered: 12-11-2005
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaNews
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[Edited on 9-16-2006 by BajaNews]
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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
Posts: 848
Registered: 6-3-2006
Member Is Offline
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Wishfull thinking, Kate, like me ?
I just do not trust LANE, or nature! In that respect.
Let's hope and cross fingers.
The sat -images (www.wonderground.com/tropcial ) shows the Hurrican now partially over Cabo area, or am I wrong??
Although the center is towards mainland, hm 
[Edited on 16-9-2006 by FARASHA]
[Edited on 16-9-2006 by FARASHA]
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