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FARASHA
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NOW- anyone noticed that upcoming THING left side of LANE?
Out and offshore the westcoast of BCS?
Looks like another bunch of trouble ?
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BajaNews
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Registered: 12-11-2005
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HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE EAST COAST.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
75 KM...WEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM
...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL....FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE LANE.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA ALONG THE TRACK OF LANE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...23.1 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
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Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E
yesterday i predicted that this might happen now we have an other one to watch
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/115302.sh...
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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BajaNews
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| Quote: | Originally posted by FARASHA
NOW- anyone noticed that upcoming THING left side of LANE?
Out and offshore the westcoast of BCS?
Looks like another bunch of trouble ? |
That would be Tropical Depression 14-E:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
THE FIRST FEW IMAGES OUT OF THE GOES-11 ECLIPSE PERIOD INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SOME VERY DEEP AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED
ON AN OBSERVATION AT 0600 UTC...VERY NEAR THE APPARENT CIRCULATION
CENTER...BY A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN ELTZ7. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY
DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTION...ANY RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 045/04. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF
HURRICANE LANE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING
AND THEREFORE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE NEW CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS.
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BajaNews
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Hurricane LANE 5am:
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BajaNews
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Hurricane Lane becomes Category 3
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4191750.html
By WILL WEISSERT
CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico — Hurricane Lane strengthened to a dangerous Category 3 on Saturday and took an unexpected turn toward Mexico's Pacific coast,
with forecasters saying it could get stronger before hitting near the resort of Mazatlan.
A day earlier, rains lashed coastal towns further south, causing a landslide that killed a 7-year-old boy in Acapulco and flooding that forced
hundreds of people to abandon their homes.
With top winds near 120 mph, the center of Lane was expected to slam into the Pacific coast later Saturday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami
said.
Mexico issued hurricane warnings for the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula and for a stretch of mainland Pacific coastline between El
Roblito to Altata.
Early Saturday, Lane was centered about 45 miles west of the mainland Pacific coast town of Mazatlan and about 185 miles east of the Baja California
resort of Cabo San Lucas. It was moving north-northwest at about 11 mph, but its exact path was unclear and it could hit anywhere within the warning
area, the hurricane center said. It was not expected to threaten the United States.
It was the second hurricane to menace the region recently. Two weeks ago, Hurricane John unleashed wind and rain on Cabo San Lucas, a remote enclave
famous for its deep-sea fishing, world-class golf courses and pristine beaches flanked by cactus-dotted deserts.
Though the storm didn't directly hit the resort, it killed five people and damaged highways and washed-out homes have yet to be completed even as Lane
bears down.
"With John, tourism dropped a lot. Now it's almost: 'Here we go again,'" said Ariel Lara, a 35-year-old timeshare salesman.
Lane caused flooding in the port city of Lazaro Card##as, where more than 500 people were evacuated from their homes after a canal overflowed.
Earlier, the storm dumped rain in Acapulco, causing the landslide that killed the boy.
Eloy Valenzuela, a 39-year-old dock employee, was tying down a yacht belonging to an American in preparation for strong winds. He said he didn't think
two hurricanes so close to one another would scare away tourists.
"We are always a moment away from a hurricane this time of year," he said. "But you just take precautions so that there is no damage."
Cabo San Lucas enjoyed clear skies and sweltering temperatures as the weekend began. There was no sign of panic on the streets or frantic supermarket
lines.
Some homes had their windows taped and a few restaurants and storefronts were boarded up. But vendors continued to hawk fishing and scuba-diving
expeditions, while hotel managers assured guests there was no reason to worry.
"So what about the hurricane?" Catherine Doster, a 25-year-old from Mobile, Ala., asked Friday, as she checked into her hotel near the Cabo San Lucas
marina. Despite her queries, she said she never considered canceling her trip.
"I don't think there will be evacuations," said Matthew Freeman, a 28-year-old electrician who was traveling with Doster. "The day before a hurricane,
usually all hell's breaking loose. Everybody here seems calm. Everything's normal."
Erin Newell, a 28-year-old film industry professional from Los Angeles, said an e-mail from loved ones in the U.S. about the storm upset her a bit.
"I think it's the fact that you're facing a hurricane," said Newell, who was drinking beer from a plastic cup as she walked near the waterfront. "I've
faced earthquakes and tornadoes, never a hurricane."
Some airlines canceled flights leaving Saturday, forcing Ellen Fiersten, of Springfield, Ill., to spend her 60th birthday waiting at the airport
Friday.
"They're very low key about the weather here," said the retiree. "The only information you get is watching CNN."
Alan Murphy, a 59-year-old retiree from Las Vegas also wasn't taking any chances. He was on a flight home Friday, three days before he was scheduled
to end a fishing trip.
"If it hits land, where do the tourists go?" he said. "They'll have to evacuate, and we don't want to be a part of that."
Meanwhile, a tropical depression formed Saturday in the Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja, Calif., the National Hurricane Center said.
The season's 14th tropical depression was expected to only gradually strengthen as it feels the influence of Hurricane Lane.
The depression was located about 460 miles southwest of Baja and was moving northeast at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were about 35 mph.
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
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Marcos Calderon, 42, practices his guitar at the Marina of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on Friday Sept. 15, 2006 as he waits to play songs for tourist.
Calderon says he is not worried about Hurricane Lane even after it became a Category 2 hurricane heading toward the tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.(AP Photo/Dario Lopez-Mills)
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
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Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Report from San Jose 7:39am pdt 16-09
Very dark skies
No wind.
No rain.....yet.
Will report on surf after I come back from the beach.
[Edited on 9-16-2006 by bajajudy]
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vandenberg
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Just watched Fox News and their meteorologists predicted a landfall close to the Los Mochis area sometime later today. Severe flooding expected.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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Looks Like we are going to get lucky here on the Baja. but I feel for those on the mainland.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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seem like it is starting inland now. it is very strong and those people are going to need help now.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/114801.sh...
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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can anyone report from the east cape?
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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BajaHawk
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
can anyone report from the east cape? |
East Cape ? Where is that? 
Just kidding...San Diego's "Lets Talk Hook-up" radio broadcast had a live report from "East Cape" this morning. I only caught the tail end of the
report but I got the impresion that things did not get too bad there.
I hope everyone else is as lucky.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
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000
WTPZ63 KNHC 161927
TCUEP3
HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1225 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
THE EYE OF LANE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
1215 PDT...1915 UTC...IN THE STATE OF SINALOA ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF EL DORADO.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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bajajudy
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San Jose 1:39pm 16-09
Clouds are starting to break up.
Never even one drop of rain.
No wind to speak of.
Surf confused and small...2 to 3 feet.
Heard there was good surfing in Los Barriles.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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thank God
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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windgrrl
Super Nomad
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LB Forecast
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/index-world-forecast.asp?submit=...
When the way comes to an end, then change. Having changed, you pass through.
~ I-Ching
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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the weather service has lifted all Watches/Warnings For all of Baja sur.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
Posts: 848
Registered: 6-3-2006
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DID you hear that noise??? That were a MEGA amount of stones, that came just
off everybody's chest. 
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Barry A.
Select Nomad
Posts: 10007
Registered: 11-30-2003
Location: Redding, Northern CA
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Mood: optimistic
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But-------
--------now, here comes MARIAM--------------------??????
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