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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
Posts: 848
Registered: 6-3-2006
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another EL NINO SEASON ?
Recently one of the BAJA Nomads made this remark (on a thread I can't recall) that THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER EL NINO Season to be expected.
Who else thinks so, and what do you know from experience, from the Years here on the BAJA, that this might happen.
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Taco de Baja
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NOAA thinks so.....
El Nino Link
| Quote: |
Synopsis: El Niņo conditions have developed and are likely to continue into early 2007.
Over the past several months most of the statistical and coupled model forecasts have trended towards warmer conditions in the tropical Pacific
through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The latest NCEP coupled forecast system (CFS) predictions indicate El Niņo conditions for the remainder of
2006 and into the NH spring 2007
Typical El Niņo effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures
over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S.
Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and most of the U.S.-affiliated
islands in the north tropical Pacific. |
Also some of the higher temps we saw this Summer (in CA anyway) may have been due more to the little rascal, El Nino, than to so called man-made
global warming.
Along the west coast of Southern California. and Baja, El Nino winters are typically wetter than average....So make sure your roof doesn't leak.
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Cypress
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El Nino? The experts predicted a higher than average hurricane season over in the Atlantic. With about 3 weeks left in the season, they said it was
gonna be less than normal. How much $$$ was spent on that deduction? Anybody could have figured that out! Wish I could receive a paycheck for
second-guessing the weather.
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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
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Thank you for the LINK Taco de Baja, it's appreciated.
One of the reason I've asked - I had this in the back of my head for the last 2 weeks.
And when I read this remark from a B Nomad I thought - well maybe I'm not that stupid after all.
I've been early 98 during El Nino in the LA area and also in BCS/La Paz area when it was pretty rough and wet.
So, watching all the Hurricanes going round, and the warming up of the tropical sections on the Satellite images, I had this growing sense - for El
Nino.
My Question is now - IS THIS ALWAYS resulting in an El Nino Season, with wat is going on now??
What has to be expected?
Cypress - you seem to bee the Wizzard here!
Let me pick you brain!!
NOAA is maybe a good info site with great images and archives, but the bones of my granny have been more acurate, then any forecasters.
Not anybody seems to have your expertises ( surely not ME)
[Edited on 19-9-2006 by FARASHA]
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Cypress
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Farasha, Picking my brain would be "slim pickens" .
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Cypress
El Nino? The experts predicted a higher than average hurricane season over in the Atlantic. With about 3 weeks left in the season, they said it was
gonna be less than normal. |
Recent talk is that there were less hurricanes this year because of El Nino......Boy, this kid sure gets around and messes with things.
I wonder how many climate change models incorporate this little guy, and If they do, how often do they shove him in the mix? every 5, 7, 10, years?
and how strong is he when they input him? How about his 'evil twin' La Nina? Both can radically effect weather all across the globe for a year, all
naturally, with no input from man-made chemicals, and then things can go back to 'normal' the next year.
Strange world we live in 
I like my rock hanging on a string weather predictor:
if it is moving, it is windy
if you can't see it, it is foggy
if it is wet, it's raining
if it is covered in white fluffy stuff, it's snowing
if it is hot, it is sunny and hot
if there are ice-sickles on it, it is cold
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Mexitron
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Taco--was it El Nino that gave you the 60 degree water in Baja, no surf, and one heat wave in California? The El Nino I know had uber-warm water and
a nice southerly ground swell pushing into the Sisters , Hurricane Linda, 85 degree water in Abreojos, and a sweltering summer in SoCal. It may be on
the way but it isn't here yet.
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
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Care to join us at "Pisces Point" for 78* water next Summer???? 
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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
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THANKS so far for the info's Nomads.
Taco I like your STONE Theory!!!
NOW- Is there a change in the marine life to be expected soon, or already to be noticed ?
I try to figure out by watching and matching up weather and changes in marine life ( not only in BAJA) in advance, as early signs that would point out
on what's coming up.
I noticed Summer 97 an rise in the watertemps to the extend, that on some places, masses of smaller fish were dying from lack of oxygen in the
shallows. BIG fish (ie.sharks, groupers, rays) changing territories, behaviour and feeding patterns etc....
Anyone with previous/recent observations (is most welcome) who want to share it with me??
[Edited on 20-9-2006 by FARASHA]
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
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| Quote: | Originally posted by FARASHA
THANKS so far for the info's Nomads.
NOW- Is there a change in the marine life to be expected soon, or already to be noticed ?
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How about me catching Bonito and Yellowtail from the beach, last month??
A friend told me that there were several Yellows caught in San Diego, from the besch, the same week I caught mine in Baja
How about other Nomads reporting Yellowtail on the beach in Baja?? http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=19417ow
Those are not typical places to find these fish. I have not looked at any fish reports lately, but it would not suprise me if day boats and overnight
charters are catching more fish in the tuna family than in past years.
Tha warmer water will also kill off the kelp. But it will grow back as the water cools.
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FARASHA
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YES, I was sifting through numerous threads to get some informations, but hard for me to tell what is the USUAL seasonal change and what is connected
to el nino, and/ or are regular weather related changes, or occurances.
I'm not (yet) a BAJA expert. I do read the related TOPIC, still doesn't always tell me what's (un)usual.
But thanks for updating me. And would like to get further infos.
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MrBillM
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Experts ?
Back in the late 70s (78 ?) in Indio, according to NOAA, Southern California was in the third year of a 10 year drought cycle when we were hit with a
series of torrential downpours that forced me to replace my roof.
They don't know [scheisse] !
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Mexitron
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Well, they knew less in the 70's, yah...
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Steve in Oro Valley
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Mmmm ...
Yellowtail in February...
During the El Niņo of1997-1998, the late WON columnist Fred Hoctor reported yellowtail pileup on the beach at 3 sisters on Punta Banda...
I went down and caught a years worth of yellowtail and barracuda filets....
I love yellowtail (jurel de aleta amarilla)...
Steve in Oro Valley
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Sharksbaja
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and this one...
| Quote: | Originally posted by Taco de Baja
| Quote: | Originally posted by Cypress
El Nino? The experts predicted a higher than average hurricane season over in the Atlantic. With about 3 weeks left in the season, they said it was
gonna be less than normal. |
Recent talk is that there were less hurricanes this year because of El Nino......Boy, this kid sure gets around and messes with things.
I wonder how many climate change models incorporate this little guy, and If they do, how often do they shove him in the mix? every 5, 7, 10, years?
and how strong is he when they input him? How about his 'evil twin' La Nina? Both can radically effect weather all across the globe for a year, all
naturally, with no input from man-made chemicals, and then things can go back to 'normal' the next year.
Strange world we live in
I like my rock hanging on a string weather predictor:
if it is moving, it is windy
if you can't see it, it is foggy
if it is wet, it's raining
if it is covered in white fluffy stuff, it's snowing
if it is hot, it is sunny and hot
if there are ice-sickles on it, it is cold |
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if the rock is gone, you're having a flood
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
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Progress ?
Well, yes, 1978 is awhile back. I suppose I mentioned that because it was the most memorable (costly) incident, but I could cite a multitude of later
events, including the time I was sitting in my sailboat on San Diego bay in a drenching downpour listening to NOAA radio telling me there might be a
70 % chance of rain that day.
Granting that NOAA has spent a lot of money in successive years and installed a lot of equipment, I would be happy to see any statistical evidence
that their accuracy of forecasts have improved.
Feel free to print that.
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FARASHA
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So far I gather from the infos that fish is seen on places they are usually not to be found - AFTER an Storm, happens anything alike also BEFORE??
And yes I don't think that forecasts are as accurate as my granny bones have been. As I stated before.
Only thing that is good now - the satellite images showing a global view of events.
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Tomas Tierra
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El Nino, La Nina......blah blah blah....El Papa is causing more problems at the moment......and oh yeah, look out for La Madre, when she decides to
get involved, we are all doomed.......DOOMED!!
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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
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MrBillM--do you have statistical evidence that the forecasts have not improved since the 70's? Beyond your own reckoning that is. The last month in
Bend, Oregon, which isn't the easiest place to forecast, they've been pretty much right on the 5 day outlooks. I think the progress is incremental
every year so we don't notice it as much...
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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
Posts: 848
Registered: 6-3-2006
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BEST FORECAST I rely on is LOCALS.They know their area, and read the signs. That's WHY I started this thread.
Satellite based forecasts is good for a good perspective on the overall information.
Nature is giving us lots of infos too - if we pay attention.
And I do my plannings (vacations, dives, trips) by taking ALL into account.
That worked very fine till now.
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