Bruce R Leech
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Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/085525.sh...
Oh oh
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion
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Home Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090855
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
200 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006
A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
UNTIL VERY RECENTLY THE COLDEST TOPS WERE LESS THAN -80 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06 UTC WERE 30-35 KT.
SINCE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BEEN ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DEPRESSION
FELL SQUARELY WITHIN THE GAP BETWEEN QUIKSCAT SWATHS AT ABOUT 01
UTC AND 03 UTC...SO THERE IS NO WIND DATA FROM ANYWHERE NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A
FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 28C TO
ABOUT 26C DURING THAT SAME PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND SHOWS A PEAK AT 40
KT...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE NEARING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
A RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT
TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AFTER IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD...
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO QUICKLY. IN FACT...THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.3N 117.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 16.3N 118.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.6N 118.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 19.6N 117.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
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Hopefully just some rain at the coastal area.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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| Quote: | Originally posted by FARASHA
Hopefully just some rain at the coastal area. |
I think you are right but it is still a little unnerving.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Barry A.
Select Nomad
Posts: 10007
Registered: 11-30-2003
Location: Redding, Northern CA
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Mood: optimistic
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Tropical Storm NORMAN------
----looks closer to Baja Sur than "E"-------in fact they are very close together, or so it appears on the weather maps.
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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
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next 2 days will show, at least far off Mulege this one.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Overcast in San Jose
It is a very strange day here in San Jose. Very overcast and cool. Only 82 on my porch right now in the hottest time of the day.
It looks pretty socked in but doesnt look like rain. Calm, almost no wind. It kinda reminds me of San Francisco....just kinda gray. I think that I
will take a siesta...perfect weather for the hammock.
A little rain would be nice....a little.
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
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Location: La Paz
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Well it looks more like Saturday for possible rain in La Paz, yes we'll take it.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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Marie-Rose
Senior Nomad
Posts: 894
Registered: 10-2-2003
Location: Victoria, B.C. and Todos Santos
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Mood: Worried...
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Really hope it is just a "little" rain!! Me and the boys (hijo and dos amigos) arrive
Sat!!!
Judy, gotta chuckle out of your "quite cool and 82 degrees"!!!! Our furnace bit the dust
last week and we were really "quite cool"!!! Any chance of meeting you in the next
couple of weeks?
Remember, when in Mexico, yes may be no and no may be
maybe!
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
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Mood: mellow
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Marie-Rose
You better bring boots you have a good size river going into Todos Santos from La Paz.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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villadelfin
Nomad
Posts: 273
Registered: 4-8-2006
Location: La Paz
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Mood: toasted and buttered
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There is another storm right behind Norman that is predicted to follow the same track. 16E...
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El Jefe
Super Nomad
Posts: 1027
Registered: 10-27-2003
Location: South East Cape
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It will rain for sure NE of San Jose del. I just the other day lugged the good mattress up on the roof to get some cool. No doubt I'll be lugging it
down in a hurry when the drops fall.
No b-tchin\' in the Baja.
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Marie-Rose
Senior Nomad
Posts: 894
Registered: 10-2-2003
Location: Victoria, B.C. and Todos Santos
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Mood: Worried...
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Absolutely NO rubber boots in BCS!!!!! I will walk thru the river with bare
feet!
And, if there is rain... I hope that our skylights have been repaired because the rain
in July nearly floated us out!!! (by the way...skylights in BCS...NOT a good idea!)
Remember, when in Mexico, yes may be no and no may be
maybe!
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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
Posts: 848
Registered: 6-3-2006
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NORMAN seems to BUDDY UP with 16 E and acummulates all whats out there!!Going to be a wet weekend on pacific coast?
Get the matress off the roof and hang the shoes around neck!And the rubberduckies out!
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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cant you just put some plastic on the matress on the roof?
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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FARASHA
Senior Nomad
Posts: 848
Registered: 6-3-2006
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OR a tent on the roof?
How is NORMAN DOING??AND 16E, can't open the weather site, tooo slow connection here at moment. Can see my hair growning before it opens.
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rpleger
Super Nomad
Posts: 1087
Registered: 3-12-2005
Location: H. Mulegé, BCS
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Mood: Was good.
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Oh Boy
Richard on the Hill
*ABROAD*, adj. At war with savages and idiots. To be a Frenchman abroad is to
be miserable; to be an American abroad is to make others miserable.
-- Ambrose Bierce, _The Enlarged Devil\'s Dictionary_
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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"We are here on Earth to fart around. Don't let anybody tell you any different."
Kurt Vonnegut.
Richard on the hill you crack me up. keep it up
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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They are both petering out, it looks like.
Jefe, I think that you are safe!
Marie-Rose...check your U2U
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