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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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lots of electrical things will not be working in Baja for a few days
I just received this from Phil KO6BB and thought it might be of interest to the Nomads.
73
Bruce
THE BEACONEER'S LAIR: http://www.geocities.com/ko6bb/
MY RADIO-LOGS: http://www.geocities.com/ko6bb/Logs/
QSL GALLERY: http://photobucket.com/albums/f306/KO6BB/
Merced, Central California, 37.3N 120.48W CM97sh
> Gang,
> I was disappointed. As active region neared the center of the sun, it went
> very quiet past day or so. Then ... from a B1 background level, an X3.4
> solar flare occured a couple of hours ago as I write this ...
> 13DEC 0214UTC = 12DEC 2114EST/1914MST
> This looks as if it could be a biggie, and certainly plenty of
> entertainment over the next 2-3 days. Energetic protons >100MeV began
> arriving at Earth less than an hour later, traveling a good fraction of
> the speed of light.
>>30MeV is considered ionizing radiation. On the sunlit side of earth right
>>now, the D-layer is highly ionized, causing a total HF blackout to 20MHz,
>>though subsiding a bit in the past 30 minutes to around 15MHz. Even here
>>on the dark side of the planet, I hear very few signals between the AM
>>broadcast band (mostly groundwave stations right now) to about 5.5MHz.
>
> There is no evidence that this ionizing radiation has reached the earths
> surface, known as a ground-level event or GLE. On the otherhand, these
> protons are also hitting the earth on the sun facing side of the earth, so
> the detectors in the U.S. are kind of worthless right now. The resulting
> radiation is more of an uppper atmosphere effect which cause concern to
> the airlines for passenger radiation exposure and possible electronic
> failures.
> It also makes you wonder what concerns there might be inside of NASA
> regarding the Space Shuttle astronauts, not having much of the Earth's
> atmosphere to shield them. Energetic protons flying through integrated
> circuits can cause junction failures, an additional concern.
> These protons enter the atmosphere, producing secondary particle
> collisions that produces increased radiation levels in the upper
> atmosphere. When the immediate radiation storm subsides, the E/F layers
> on the sunlit side of the earth will be very reflective with an above
> normal MUF.
> These protons are also entering the polar regions which have to be
> generating some spectacular aurora right now up north. Not to mention a
> strong Polar Cap Absorption event, which has the same effect as a near HF
> blackout for those in the higher latitudes.
> When the sun rises tomorrow over the Americas, the energetic protons will
> ionize the atmosphere above our heads, making our E/F layers more
> reflective and a higher MUF, even though the solar flare is long over.
> However, it probably won't be enough to ionize the D-layer ... meaning
> tomorrow during the day (particular morning hours U.S.) is a good time to
> get on the air with a higher MUF and a quiet D-layer. Since the E/F
> layers EAST of us will still be active, it could be favorable for strong
> east-west paths into Europe QRP.
> GEOMAGNETIC STORM.
> This solar flare occured smack in the middle of the sun ... the absolute
> ideal position for a coronal mass ejection (CME) to deliver a full blow to
> the Earth. Region 0930 is centered both in longitude and latitude,
> meaning the CME will hit us almost directly, AND the full force of the CME
> will ride along the plane of the Interplantary Magnetic Field (IMF). In
> short, we'll get a fairly strong and direct hit in a day or two, which
> will no doubt trigger a MAJOR, if not a SEVERE geomagnetic storm. This is
> NOT a "glancing blow" event -hi.
> WHEN WILL IT HIT?
> NOAA doesn't give much of a prediction, other than to say "on 14-15 DEC."
> Of course, much of that is due to the SOHO satellite being partially
> inoperative right now, so images and trajectory of the CME can not be
> made.
> So, let's figure it out ourselves.
> The speed of the shockwave from the CME was measured at 0244UTC at
> 1532km/s, or a fairly strong shockwave (anything >1000km/s is considered a
> major shockwave).
> 1532km/s x 60 sec. x 60 min. = 5.5^6km/hr
> With the sun 150,000,000km away, divided by 5.5^6km/hr = 27hrs travel
> time.
> However, the shockwave slows down as it travels away from the sun, with an
> ESTIMATE of about 85% (this is the biggest uncertainty in calculating
> arrival time. However, since it is traveling along the IMF fairly
> directly, I'm going to stick to the fastest 85% estimate).
> Therefore, 85% slowing of 27hrs = 32hrs = 1d 8h travel time
> Flare 13DEC 02UTC + 1d 8h = 14DEC 1000UTC = 14DEC 0500EST/0300MST
> Thus, we can expect the shockwave to arrive, and the geomagnetic storm to
> begin about sunrise 14DEC on the eastcoast US, and mid-morning to noon
> 14DEC in the UK/western Europe. Arriving at 85% of its velocity, the
> shockwave should hit earth fairly directly at 1532 x 85% = 1300km/s, or a
> fairly strong hit that will no doubt trigger a SEVERE geomagnetic storm
> with K indices hitting 7, perhaps all the way to 9. Such a severe
> compression of our magnetosphere will cause a long duration geomagnetic
> storm, lasting 12-18 hours. There will be very high and bursty noise
> levels leaving the bands fairly useless most of 14DEC.
> Along with the shockwave will be a wall of solar particles, many of which
> will be funneled along the Earth's magnetic field into the polar regions,
> fueling a strong aurora. If the >10MeV proton event is still continuing
> when the shockwave hits, it will fuel the aurora further. In short, when
> the shockwave hits, there could be very good auroras blowing fairly
> southward wherever local midnight is when the shockwave occurs.
> *IF* the shockwave arrives early morning 14DEC as quasi-predicted above,
> it means those of us in western Europe through the Americas will likely
> miss the show. But ... we certainly won't miss the geomagnetic storm!
> It is always difficult to predict the nature and intensity of an arriving
> shockwave (there are numerous factors that could skew the above calculated
> arrival time by many hours). That's my guess and I'm sticking to it -hi.
> A shockwave of 1300km/s has the *potential* of causing more severe
> problems above lousy HF communications, such as problems with electrical
> systems. Again, the potential is there, but no way of predicting anything
> specific.
> If the electrical power goes out somewhere - GET ON THE AIR. I have 1st
> hand experience of being on the air when the westcoast US went dark about
> 10 years ago. 40M was so quiet, it sounded like 2M over the repeater!
> You'll just have to see what band has minimal noise for some unique
> ground/skip propagation. Of course, that failure was not due to a
> geomagnetic storm, so the noise from that was not present.
> I always enjoy sharing my knowledge on the solar phenomenon after a solar
> flare and geomagnetic storm, but this is a unique opportunity to observe
> the effects BEFORE it happens. By watching what happens over the next 2-3
> days, with the above information, it should strengthen your knowledge and
> confirm your understanding on solar/geomagnetic storms. I can tell you,
> for those QRPers who have followed these posts over the years, you have a
> far higher understanding than the vast majority of hams.
> If I learn anything new or interesting when I arrive at work tomorrow at
> the observatory, I'll pass it on.
> 72, Paul NA5N
> PS - Just in case, I'd have a flashlight and a couple of candles ready :-)
> PPS - Most electric grid failures occur with a shockwave >1600km/s
>
____73 de Phil, KO6BB
DX begins at the noise floor!______________________________________________________
> QRP-L mailing list
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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DanO
Super Nomad
Posts: 1923
Registered: 8-26-2003
Location: Not far from the Pacific
Member Is Offline
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Great. I've got my hands full worrying about highway bandits, corrupt cops, rampant overdevelopment, horrendous border traffic, crazy meth-addicted
burglars, Christmas shopping, raw sewage in my surf break and whether I can squeeze another 5,000 miles out of my BFGs before I start getting flats.
Now I have to worry about a geomagnetic storm? Can life suck any harder?
\"Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible.\" -- Frank Zappa
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Barry A.
Select Nomad
Posts: 10007
Registered: 11-30-2003
Location: Redding, Northern CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: optimistic
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DanO------
You can camp in the Boulders outside of Guadelupe Canyon and not worry about ANY of those things!!!
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Don Alley
Super Nomad
Posts: 1997
Registered: 12-4-2003
Location: Loreto
Member Is Offline
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Don't worry.
Be happy.
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Stickers
Senior Nomad
Posts: 571
Registered: 4-12-2006
Location: SoCal
Member Is Offline
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Or you can slip off into the bliss of ignorance. "Hey there is static on my radio today"? Who cares.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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Did anyone notice the am radio blackout last night? I could only get 1 BC band station and it wasn't listenable.
sorry DanO just get an umbrella and cover it with aluminum foil and use it when you are under the sun
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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Jeez! This is way too much information for me to comprehend. Should I run or
should I stay? If I decide to stay, what should I do? If I decide to run? Which way? 
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DanO
Super Nomad
Posts: 1923
Registered: 8-26-2003
Location: Not far from the Pacific
Member Is Offline
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Good idea Bruce, but I like to keep both hands free. I'll get one of those umbrella hats instead, and cover it with heavy duty aluminum foil. Not
only will it protect me from geomagnetic storms, it'll also keep those pesky aliens from beaming the radio signals into my head that make me do stupid
things. Hey, and I'll save money on sunscreen too!
\"Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible.\" -- Frank Zappa
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elgatoloco
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4323
Registered: 11-19-2002
Location: Yes
Member Is Offline
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This type of solar activity frequently results in aurora sightings. Some interesting info on this webpage.
http://www.dennismammana.com/skyinfo/gazingtips/auroras.htm
Doubt you will see it in Mulege.
MAGA
Making Attorneys Get Attorneys
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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appeal of the day:lol:
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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elgatoloco
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4323
Registered: 11-19-2002
Location: Yes
Member Is Offline
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http://www.spaceweather.com/
Go here for photo of Bruce's flare. 
MAGA
Making Attorneys Get Attorneys
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longlegsinlapaz
Super Nomad
Posts: 1685
Registered: 11-18-2005
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
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DanO.....you gotta learn to multi-task!!!
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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Bruce, That's one frosty looking image. Can identify with the white stuff. Not braggen, not complaining, just commenting.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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oh yes DanO we will also have 3 Earth-asteroid encounters in Dec 2006.
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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capt. mike
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8085
Registered: 11-26-2002
Location: Bat Cave
Member Is Offline
Mood: Sling time!
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some one needs to call Art Bell on this one!
formerly Ordained in Rev. Ewing\'s Church by Mail - busted on tax fraud.......
Now joined L. Ron Hoover\'s church of Appliantology
\"Remember there is a big difference between kneeling down and bending over....\"
www.facebook.com/michael.l.goering |
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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Somebody catch that dude before he makes it to the HWY.
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jimgrms
Senior Nomad
Posts: 664
Registered: 9-30-2005
Location: oceanside ca
Member Is Offline
Mood: its always good
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I really need to find out if what bruce is smoking is legal and where can i get some
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DanO
Super Nomad
Posts: 1923
Registered: 8-26-2003
Location: Not far from the Pacific
Member Is Offline
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Grover, that guy's doing it all wrong. Putting your fingers in your ears won't block the alien radio signals (trust me on this), and the antennas
just amplify them. I kinda like the foil balaclava though, especially during those cold winter months.
\"Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible.\" -- Frank Zappa
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Neal Johns
Super Nomad
Posts: 1687
Registered: 10-31-2002
Location: Lytle Creek, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: In love!
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The radiation has not reached Lytle Creek yet. at least no effects on humans noted yet.
My motto:
Never let a Dragon pass by without pulling its tail!
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Barry A.
Select Nomad
Posts: 10007
Registered: 11-30-2003
Location: Redding, Northern CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: optimistic
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OH----MY------GAWD!!!!!!!
and to think I was going to visit Lytle Creek, and mix with the Natives----maybe even see Neal-----don't think so, now-------poor guy------he just
doesn't KNOW---------years of exposure has taken it's toll--------the future is grim---------
Barry
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