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Author: Subject: EL NINO
Baja Margie
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[*] posted on 11-12-2004 at 07:26 PM
EL NINO


Here we go....


http://surfermag.com/features/onlineexclusives/elnino_04/




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Mexitron
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Mood: Happy!

[*] posted on 11-12-2004 at 09:15 PM


Yeeeeeee-haaaaaaaaahhhhhhh!!!!!
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Mike Humfreville
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[*] posted on 11-12-2004 at 11:09 PM
I Wouldn't Get Too Excited Yet...


The graphic that started this thread is certainly not real for our current season. While the text somewhat agrees with current reality, the graphic referenced below shows a completely different picture (I'm not trying to be a wet blanket here).

Check out the animated ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation graphic at the following link:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml

Here is text from a current ENSO paper:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/update.html

Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific are currently indicative of a weak El Ni?o. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is at least 60% likely that weak El Ni?o conditions will prevail through early 2005.
General Discussion
Weak El Ni?o conditions developed in the east-central tropical Pacific in late July. Sea surface temperatures of 1 degree C above average are now observed along the equator from 160E to 145W. Sea surface temperatures in the far eastern tropical Pacific have warmed from below normal to nearly average levels. The tropical Pacific atmospheric conditions have begun to show some characteristics of El Ni?o development, but more weakly than those of the ocean. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, about two-thirds predict sea surface temperatures at weak El Ni?o levels for the coming season, and a few of the models presently showing only borderline El Ni?o conditions warm to that level by the end of the year, indicating approximately 70% probability of weak El Ni?o conditions by early 2005. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for El Ni?o conditions are aproximately equal to 60% from October through December 2004, increasing to 70% by the end of the calendar year and into early 2005, and decreasing thereafter. The likelihood of neutral conditions is below the climatological likelihood (i.e. less than 50% probability) through 2004 and early 2005. The probability of development of La Ni?a conditions is believed to be much less than that of an average year (i.e. less than 25%).

Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.

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Mike Humfreville
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[*] posted on 11-13-2004 at 12:00 AM


Sure hope you don't have to work tomorrow!
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Capt. George
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[*] posted on 11-13-2004 at 06:00 AM
THE SKY IS FALLING!


the sky is falling! the end is near! repent!

Vikingo
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Eli
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[*] posted on 11-13-2004 at 12:28 PM
Oh MY Dog, Grover


what have you started here, herre we go again, radical baptist, yippie yiehawwwww, couldn't belive it, they even hava a Jesus Thong and allllll, jejejejeje, to much fun for this ol liberal hippy radical........whats the world coming to.
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Capt. George
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[*] posted on 11-13-2004 at 06:13 PM
I'M SAVED!


Thank you Grover, I knew I would find something out there to suit my needs.

If I could spell halalulya, I would!!

a sinner in paradise...........
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Baja Margie
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[*] posted on 11-14-2004 at 02:15 AM
Pray For Surf !!!!






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