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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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here comes EL NINO!!!!
All the above data suggests this evolving 2014 event is of equal strength to the 1997 event, if not stronger (as of the end of March 2014). The fact
that the 2014 event started a month earlier might bias the analysis towards making it look stronger, if only in that it had more time to evolve. But
the fact that it started a month earlier in and of itself could also suggest there was more latent heat energy built up in the ocean compared to the
1997 event. Note that El Nino is just a means for the ocean to vent off excess heat, serving much the same purpose as a hurricane relative towards
venting off excess lower atmospheric heat. Also consider the continuous string of typhoons in the West Pacific (Philippines) during the Northern
Hemisphere Summer of 2013, culminating in Super Typhoon Haiyan in early November 2013, a month after the first Kelvin Wave of the 2014 ENSO event
developed and was tracking east under the equator toward Ecuador. Of note: Haiyan is the 4th strongest typhoon on record anywhere in the world, with
the 3 above it all occurring in the '58-61 time frame. Conversely there is building evidence that suggest that wind speeds measured during typhoons
from the '40s to the '60s (all in the West Pacific) were biased on the high side, potentially pushing Hiayan further up the all time ranking.
Regardless, there is ample evidence to suggest a large warm pool was present in the West Pacific Ocean and was affecting the atmosphere above it. That
oceanic warm pool heated the atmosphere above enough to suppress trades, if not cause an outright reversal of trades, generating a string of 4 WWBs,
which ultimately resulted in the Kelvin Waves we are now tracking. Also consider that the '97 El Nino was the strongest on record (surpassing the
'82/83 event) all causing significant global weather impacts to food production, transportation and human well being. and there is some evidence to
suggest the earlier an El Nino forms, the stronger it will eventually be, all correlated to the same rationale above. At this time the evidence
suggests a significant ENSO event is possible.
But, there is not one shred of evidence to suggest abnormal warming of surface waters off Ecuador is occurring. That is the trademark of El Nino. It
is the warming of surface waters on the equator between 120W and 170W (commonly referred to as Nino 3.4) +0.5 deg C above normal for 3 or more
consecutive months (exact parameters vary) that delineate the start of El Nino. And it takes another 3 months after that warm surface water manifests
to start transferring energy into the atmosphere, enough so that the jet stream starts to increase velocity and change configuration affecting the
track and strength of gales and storms below it, primarily focused on the North Pacific. One would not expect to see evidence of that until no earlier
than late July 2014. And until that occurs, that is, the atmosphere is positively affected, this remains a 'potential' event. That said, this is a
'possible' event worth monitoring.
For real time monitoring of this situation (updates posted approx 3 times per week), visit our Pacific Ocean Surf Forecast Page (see ENSO subsection
half way down the page) or for more advanced users monitor with the ENSO Powertool.
read more here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/2014/comparison.shtml
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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Member Is Offline
Mood: Happy!
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Now that sounds like fun!
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17295
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Hot n spicy
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Some of you partisans and tinfoil hat types don't believe government scientists, but for you that have an open mind, check out the periodic NWS
updates on ENSO prediction...
--------------------------------------------
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 April 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year,
exceeding 50% by summer.
ENSO-neutral continued during March 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific
as well as near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). The weekly SSTs were below average in the Niño1+2 region, near average but rising in Niño3 and
Niño3.4 regions, and above average in the Niño4 region (Fig. 2). A significant downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that was initiated in January greatly
increased the oceanic heat content to the largest March value in the historical record back to 1979 (Fig. 3) and produced large positive subsurface
temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Also during March, low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the
central equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over western Indonesia, and enhanced over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Although
these atmospheric and oceanic conditions collectively reflect ENSO-neutral, they also reflect a clear evolution toward an El Niño state.
The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño this year compared with last month. Most of
the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through much of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2014 (Fig. 6), with many models predicting the development of El Niño sometime during the summer or fall. Despite this greater model
consensus, there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the
inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring. While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the
chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year, and exceed 50% by the summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance
of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their
funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current
Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate
Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 May 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO
Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/en...
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64479
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Have Baja Fever
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An El Niño in our future? It's all really up to God, isn't it?
'El Niño' gets its name because of when it happens, the celebrated time of the birth of Jesus, El Niño de Dios.
[Edited on 4-16-2014 by David K]
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bajalearner
Senior Nomad
Posts: 670
Registered: 8-24-2010
Location: Tijuana
Member Is Offline
Mood: in search of more
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The weather images resemble my brain scan while trying to comprehend the data.
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Martyman
Super Nomad
Posts: 1904
Registered: 9-10-2004
Member Is Offline
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Mt Goat-Tell me more about the tinfoil hat types???
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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hey goat, you can't have mine!!!!
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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1997 was really nice, but I've really lost faith in these pointy headed science types trying to predict the global temperature 100 years in the
future, El Niño a couple months in the future, or even the weather next week. We've heard this El Niño forecast before and it always fizzles and the
water remains cool or average.
I’ll stick to my trusty "AccuWeatherRite Tin-foil Hat". It's never wrong:
If the tin-foil hat is wet, it's raining.
If the tin-foil hat is swinging, the wind is blowing.
If the tin-foil hat casts a shadow, the sun is shining.
If the tin-foil hat does not cast a shadow and is not wet, the sky is cloudy.
If the tin-foil hat is not visible, it is foggy.
If the tin-foil hat is white, it is snowing.
If the tin-foil hat is coated with ice, there is a frost.
If the ice is thick, it's a heavy frost.
If the tin-foil hat is bouncing, there is an earthquake.
If the tin-foil hat is under water, there is a flood.
If the tin-foil hat is warm, it is sunny.
If the tin-foil hat is missing, there was a tornado.
If the tin-foil hat is wet and swinging violently, there is a hurricane.
If the tin-foil hat has white splats on it, watch out for birds.
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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bajagrouper
Senior Nomad
Posts: 964
Registered: 8-28-2003
Location: Rincon de Guayabitos, Nayarit, Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: happy and retired
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What does it really matter, can't do anything about it............although my beach house is for sale, LOL
I hear the whales song
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sancho
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2524
Registered: 10-6-2004
Location: OC So Cal
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by mtgoat666
Some of you partisans and tinfoil hat types don't believe government scientists
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It is well documented who the Pres of that group of
BN's is, never did get the anti-science lean, seems it
is accompained by other irrational beliefs, lots of data
available now, used to be it's a warm water yr/ cold
water yr., I do remember an '80's warm water summer
saw a Frigate Bird over Dana Point, Ca
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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when the red pelagic crabs return to Sandy Eggo you'll know it's warm!!!!!
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chippy
Super Nomad
Posts: 1697
Registered: 2-2-2010
Member Is Offline
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when you are catching big albacore 15 miles outa HMB you know its an EL NIÑo.
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chippy
Super Nomad
Posts: 1697
Registered: 2-2-2010
Member Is Offline
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when you are surfing Pacifica in a spring suit you know its an el NIÑo.
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17295
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Hot n spicy
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when the meteorologists says so it is el nino
all hail the climate scientists!
[Edited on 4-17-2014 by mtgoat666]
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willardguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6451
Registered: 9-19-2009
Member Is Offline
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when you're catchin salmon off your surfboard at the ventura rivermouths.....
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CortezBlue
Super Nomad
Posts: 2213
Registered: 11-14-2006
Location: Fenix/San Phelipe
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by mtgoat666
Some of you partisans and tinfoil hat types don't believe government scientists, but for you that have an open mind............
Hey chicken little
You are a prime candidate for these current times
Do yourself a favor and don't take anyone's word for anything, but instead use your own brain to do some research.
The first place to look is Al Gore
Look at his wealth curve that happens to track with his rampage on global warming
Bottom line , always, follow the dollar and you will find your answers
You 666 boy
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 April 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year,
exceeding 50% by summer.
ENSO-neutral continued during March 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific
as well as near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). The weekly SSTs were below average in the Niño1+2 region, near average but rising in Niño3 and
Niño3.4 regions, and above average in the Niño4 region (Fig. 2). A significant downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that was initiated in January greatly
increased the oceanic heat content to the largest March value in the historical record back to 1979 (Fig. 3) and produced large positive subsurface
temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Also during March, low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the
central equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over western Indonesia, and enhanced over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Although
these atmospheric and oceanic conditions collectively reflect ENSO-neutral, they also reflect a clear evolution toward an El Niño state.
The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño this year compared with last month. Most of
the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through much of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2014 (Fig. 6), with many models predicting the development of El Niño sometime during the summer or fall. Despite this greater model
consensus, there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the
inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring. While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the
chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year, and exceed 50% by the summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance
of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their
funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current
Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate
Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 May 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO
Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/en... |
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.”
- Albert Einstein
Follow Cortez Blue
www.cortezblue.com
We put the FUNK in disFUNKtion |
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17295
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Hot n spicy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by CortezBlue
Hey chicken little
You are a prime candidate for these current times
Do yourself a favor and don't take anyone's word for anything, but instead use your own brain to do some research.
The first place to look is Al Gore
Look at his wealth curve that happens to track with his rampage on global warming
Bottom line , always, follow the dollar and you will find your answers
You 666 boy
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i thought you conservatives did not criticize people for financial success?
so messages are only true if spewed from the mouths of the poor, eh.
ok, i can buy that.
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neilm81301
Nomad
Posts: 134
Registered: 3-21-2012
Member Is Offline
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El Nino?
All I wanna know is, does it break the drought?
Neil
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wilderone
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3778
Registered: 2-9-2004
Member Is Offline
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"...does it break the drought?"
Yes, and then some. Jan. of 1997 storm sequences of snow/rain/warm temps tore through the Sierra Nevada, actually re-routing the Walker River. The
flood that roared through there mowed down hundreds of pine trees hundreds of years old - the forest that grew alongside the river is simply gone in a
2-3 mile section. It dumped 12 ft. of snow on my roof at Lake Tahoe, breaking 4 rafters. It caused water to flow over levies in Sacramento River
Delta, flooding downstream communities, ruining crops.
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64479
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Winter of 2009/2010 (from BajaCactus)
Colonet:
El Rosario:
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