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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
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Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Hurricane SIMON
Baja is not out of the woods yet; this is a week's notice for a heads' up for more weather.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/I...
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep201490_model_zoo...
[Edited on 9-29-2014 by bajabuddha]
[Edited on 9-29-2014 by bajabuddha]
[Edited on 10-1-2014 by BajaNomad]
[Edited on 10-2-2014 by BajaNomad]
[Edited on 10-4-2014 by BajaNomad]
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
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Mood: Weary
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Been keeping an eye on that one...
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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looks like Simon will follow Polo's lead...we hope.
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
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Mood: Enthusiastic
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It appears that this system will almost certainly become a tropical storm very close to the southern coast of Mexico. Does that bode well or ill for
Baja or is it too early to say? I ask at the zero hour! After weeks of putting off plans to drive down, I plan to do so in the wee hours of the
morning. Any idle chatter on the topic I will greedily devour. I will probably go on the thinking that conditions are no longer ripe for a major
hurricane event and also because the most models suggest that this system will stay out at sea, away from the Peninsula. The NHC says that it is 90%
likely that this system will become a tropical storm within the next five days.... Will it never end?
[Edited on 9-30-2014 by Zola]
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
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Mood: Weary
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No, it will never end...and Yes just deal with it..common sense and planning will get you by...You cant let unknowns run your life..Lotta people
do...Lo Siento for them....
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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my crystal ball says that this will certainly develop into at least a tropical storm and most likely Hurricane Simon that will bring more nice surf
our way mid week next week but not much wind...maybe some rain...but probably not here as we are muy saladas when it comes to rain...meaning we have
bad luck and rarely get rain.
I think Odile was "the big one" I had predicted way back in the spring although it was Norbert who did more damage here in Asuncion with the big
swell.
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
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Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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OHHHH CHRYSTAL BALL.........!!!!
Zola, call the gal in Lake Elsinore and borrow a few Xanax. This late, water is cooling down (general ocean temps) so JUST GUESSING won't be a major
'nuther hurricane, but WILL bring tropical moisture up to the western mainland and Baja. MAYBE. So, whatever you ran out of, BUY MORE. And, maybe,
just MAYBE, could fizzle, but keep kewl, and plan accordingly.
Shari, your crystal balls are very impressive. Let's hope Mulege doesn't do any more 'dredging' upstream for the nonce. Once again, El Niño has
impressed the living chite out of me... man, what a show of nature. I once again feel for all of you , and am sorry I can't physically be there to
help. Y'all button up and keep the THIRD-EYE open (for those who knows). I didn't post this thread for me.
bb
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
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Mood: Enthusiastic
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Thanks for the advice, and I didn't mean to overreact. I never before paid close attention to hurricane weather, and I am getting a crash course this
season! I will pass on the Xanax and take comfort in some red wine instead. 
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4969
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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cj5orion
Nomad
Posts: 336
Registered: 2-6-2010
Location: Pacific Beach/Gonzaga Bay
Member Is Offline
Mood: time for a cervaza !!!
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http://sailflow.com/en-us/Search/ViewResults.aspx#24.296,-11...
sailflows FORECAST Tues Oct 10
Home Remodels/Builds..Recession!
Gone BAJA BUILDIN/FISHIN !
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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nuttin dere
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bajalearner
Senior Nomad
Posts: 670
Registered: 8-24-2010
Location: Tijuana
Member Is Offline
Mood: in search of more
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| Quote: | Originally posted by chuckie
No, it will never end...and Yes just deal with it..common sense and planning will get you by...You cant let unknowns run your life..Lotta people
do...Lo Siento for them.... |
I think this is a great statement. But could it be the world is not flat and there isn't really an invisible man in the sky pulling my strings?
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
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Mood: Weary
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Does not look flat from my front door this morning
[Edited on 10-1-2014 by BajaNomad]
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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we have been closely watching storm developments and tracks since we got internet here...before that, we listened to reports on the VHF radio and
could only guess and hope for the best.
It is fascinating to study the different models and how reliable they each are or not and take into consideration all the factors of water temps,
ridges etc. Reading the discussions on eebmike is interesting to learn what steers these things and one gets to know the fellows writing the
discussions too.
It is so comforting to be able to watch the storms real time via satellite imagery...until the power & internet goes out...then we are back to
square one listening to the vhf again and watching the sky.
Simon looks like a crap shoot...could go either way at this point... east or west? I am leaning west...
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4969
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014
An elongated area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico has shown little change in organization
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression to form tomorrow or Thursday
while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near
10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance
will likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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cj5orion
Nomad
Posts: 336
Registered: 2-6-2010
Location: Pacific Beach/Gonzaga Bay
Member Is Offline
Mood: time for a cervaza !!!
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| Quote: | Originally posted by chuckie
nuttin dere
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http://sailflow.com/en-us/Search/ViewResults.aspx#24.296,-11...
sailflows FORECAST Tues Oct 10
YEA...LINKS DIDNT WORK ?
JUS GOOGLE FOR "SAILFLOW"
CLICK UPPER LEFT ICON
GOTO "WIND FORECAST MAP"
Home Remodels/Builds..Recession!
Gone BAJA BUILDIN/FISHIN !
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4969
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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500 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form later
today or Thursday while the system moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4969
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5818
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
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Mood: Retireded
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I am new to this site, and have a question about these forecasts. Can someone tell me if these are six different possibilities created by the same
program, or predictions of six different programs? Has your experience shown any one model to be more reliable than another?
I notice that storm track NGFDL, exactly matches my destination and timetable!
Thanks, G.L.
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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AK, even the bestest of the bestest will testify that anything more than a 72-hour forecast is at best a 60% probability of an educated guess (Quote
by Mark Eubanks, Utah meteorologist extraordinaire). Best to plan on being flexible, load for bear, and have lots of extra cervezas..
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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