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Author: Subject: Prayer for Neal Johns
DianaT
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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 12:38 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Bajaboy  
Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
Quote: Originally posted by DianaT  
Quote: Originally posted by rts551  


Last month was the hottest month on record...Forecast for the fire season is not good.


Yes, it is a very bad year. Just heard the fire officials on TV say that the fires this year are worse as they are all very explosive. So far, there is no containment of this one. One said that they have never seen a fire like this one.



Another record broken. The moisture content of the brush is at historic lows. It's essentially dead because of the multi-year drought.


That is a major factor but we must also consider forest management issues of the past 100 years or so. Much of the forest has not been allowed to burn in the past creating a huge build up of fuel. http://news.mit.edu/2013/forest-fire-management-1120


Interesting article from a few years ago. Many years ago, there was a change in some fire fighting policies where if a fire is burning the the wilderness area and does not threaten human habitation, they will let it burn. The importance of Smokey was realigned. The build up of fuel causes trees to burn that other wise would probably just be scared.

I was in Yellowstone several years ago a few weeks before the big fire there, and boy it needed a fire, but when the decision to let much of it burn was made, there was a lot of criticism.

And there have been legitimate questions about management like around the Julian area when the San Diego fire hit, and in Oregon just a year ago or so. Questions with many sides to the story.

In this case, other than near Wrightwood, so much of it is in the chaparral, and while it is meant to burn, it is worse this year because of the multi-year drought. The same situation is true for so many trees in California. They have died from the drought and make perfect fuel.

Good article --- and in a perfect scenario, there would be no homes in areas of chaparral.

Just saw more photos of the fire--- awful. I hope Neal and everyone are staying safe. :-(



[Edited on 8-17-2016 by DianaT]
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woody with a view
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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 01:33 PM


Not to mention the urban/rural sprawl and the never ending influx of more humans moving in every year. When will the limits of population density for a given locale be reached? If populations are allowed to spread unabated forever then these types of incidents will continue. There already isnt enough water for all of the parched gullets.....

Something to ponder tonight when you can't fall back asleep!




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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 02:04 PM


California has always burned. I remember living in the San Fernando Valley in the mid 1960s and ash from fires would cover everything. Heck, some native plants NEED to be scorched to germinate. The problem, as mentioned above, is building in areas where fire happens. And we will continue to pay for "re-building" through taxes and insurance, just like we do when hurricanes wipe out the same neighborhoods over and over again in the south east.
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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 02:05 PM


Unfortunately, most governments (city, county, state) don't have the balls to limit growth. More people = more houses = more trees = more lawns. It was a desert for a reason. Can't support the infrastructure now, but don't bother to look ahead.....can't wait till they are forced to drink reclaimed water

Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view  
Not to mention the urban/rural sprawl and the never ending influx of more humans moving in every year. When will the limits of population density for a given locale be reached? If populations are allowed to spread unabated forever then these types of incidents will continue. There already isnt enough water for all of the parched gullets.....

Something to ponder tonight when you can't fall back asleep!
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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 02:19 PM


Toilet to tap is an excellent idea.



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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 02:41 PM


Quote: Originally posted by BajaMama  
California has always burned. I remember living in the San Fernando Valley in the mid 1960s and ash from fires would cover everything. Heck, some native plants NEED to be scorched to germinate. The problem, as mentioned above, is building in areas where fire happens. And we will continue to pay for "re-building" through taxes and insurance, just like we do when hurricanes wipe out the same neighborhoods over and over again in the south east.


Yes there is a fire season every year in CA and development of fire prone areas exacerbates the problem.

But, the climate has changed, making the fire season longer. It is getting hotter and drier.

------------------------------------

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/science/wildfires-season-g...

By key measures, fire season has grown significantly longer in the past 30 years. Dr. Jolly’s research shows that the season, measured by how many days are hot and dry enough to increase the likelihood of fire, has lengthened by 30 to 45 days across big patches of the United States, notably the West.

By another measure, the time between the first and last large fires in a year, the length of the season in the West has increased by 78 days since the 1970s.
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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 03:50 PM


The fire that stopped last night is now moving down the hill towards Mountain Lakes. The post office (by his house, per DK) is down canyon about 1/2 from Mountain Lakes. Here is a clip of the news at Mountain Lakes. http://abc7.com/news/blue-cut-fire-chars-30k-acres-moving-cl... I hope they stop it.



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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 04:13 PM


Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
Quote: Originally posted by BajaMama  
California has always burned. I remember living in the San Fernando Valley in the mid 1960s and ash from fires would cover everything. Heck, some native plants NEED to be scorched to germinate. The problem, as mentioned above, is building in areas where fire happens. And we will continue to pay for "re-building" through taxes and insurance, just like we do when hurricanes wipe out the same neighborhoods over and over again in the south east.


Yes there is a fire season every year in CA and development of fire prone areas exacerbates the problem.

But, the climate has changed, making the fire season longer. It is getting hotter and drier.

------------------------------------

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/science/wildfires-season-g...

By key measures, fire season has grown significantly longer in the past 30 years. Dr. Jolly’s research shows that the season, measured by how many days are hot and dry enough to increase the likelihood of fire, has lengthened by 30 to 45 days across big patches of the United States, notably the West.

By another measure, the time between the first and last large fires in a year, the length of the season in the West has increased by 78 days since the 1970s.


But it is still summer, right? That is the criteria for some that everything is OK.
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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 07:02 PM


...
Now, back to Neal Johns, if anyone is really concerned about him, Marian, and the huskies... I just called both the house and cell phone, and no connection, bummer!

Edit: Update: Neal saw that I tried to call and we just got done talking. They are evacuated, all 4 cars and the huskies too. Staying at friends some miles away. As far as they know, the house is still there.



[Edited on 8-18-2016 by David K]




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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 07:46 PM


Don't want to see the palm trees. A combination of factors are causing an increase in fire danger. More people, climate change, fire suppression tactics in the past...and a persistent drought in California. Toilet to tap may not be far off. Bottoms up David.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-fires...
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[*] posted on 8-17-2016 at 07:55 PM


I am glad the Johns are OK I hope their house is fine too... The rest of the patter is fine, as the Johns are good.




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[*] posted on 8-18-2016 at 05:40 AM


Another mitigating factor that hasn't much been addressed is the increased amount of wealthier people with more dollars than ˘ense building in what used to be back-country areas so they can "live in the nature" and not taking fire break precautions around their houses. That in itself is a 'not if but when' situation. My friend's sister lost her house in the Black Forest Fire in Colorado Springs a few years back because they refused to remove trees from the immediate proximity of their house, preferring the 'arboreal feel' of being one with nature; and they became that way. Their neighbor's house survived because cuts were made. Later after the loss of everything, they got burned again by a shyster contractor, hundreds of which descended on the community like a plague of grubbing locusts. I know some areas have stringent codes in place now; more are needed. Those unaffected yet should take heed and do more preventative landscaping. And yes, I understand when a conflagration hits flash-over takes it all. Like the similarities of a hurricane, tornado, tsunami and ex-wife; they all get the house.



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[*] posted on 8-18-2016 at 09:15 PM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
...
Edit: Update: Neal saw that I tried to call and we just got done talking. They are evacuated, all 4 cars and the huskies too. Staying at friends some miles away. As far as they know, the house is still there.
[Edited on 8-18-2016 by David K]


Thank you for the update, David!




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[*] posted on 8-19-2016 at 06:44 AM


De nada Ken. I did tell Neal about this thread, and he had a laugh.



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[*] posted on 8-19-2016 at 07:40 AM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
De nada Ken. I did tell Neal about this thread, and he had a laugh.


I wonder what is so funny about people being concerned?
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[*] posted on 8-19-2016 at 08:19 AM


Maybe the laugh was just happiness?
Maybe because he wonders what brought that out?
Maybe it just doesn't matter?


[Edited on 8-19-2016 by David K]




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[*] posted on 8-19-2016 at 08:32 AM


What's so funny about peace, love and understanding?



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[*] posted on 8-19-2016 at 08:34 AM


I thought it was peace, love, and fish tacos?



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[*] posted on 8-19-2016 at 11:09 AM


God forbid I care about somebody I have never met.

When I posted this, there were already homes destroyed by fire in Long Canyon. The fire was heading towards Lytle Creek at a very fast rate. I know the the canyon, when it burning there is only one way out. You don't want to be on the wrong side of the fire when it burns. I remember he lived in the canyon and was concerned about him.

Just because I don't always play well with others doesn't mean I don't care about them, or wish them well.




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[*] posted on 8-19-2016 at 01:38 PM


It was a VERY nice gesture on your part, MMc!
I did not mean to imply otherwise.

Neal and Marian are great folks and have been a fountain of information and trip posts. I was honored to be with Neal on his final (according to him) Baja trip, as were the other Nomads on our group trip to Mission Santa Maria.

I will gladly edit my earlier post that may have been interpreted in a negative fashion.

Peace, Love, and Fish Tacos!




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