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Author: Subject: How good is a Windyty forecast? Storm heading for the Cape?
AKgringo
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[*] posted on 8-27-2017 at 10:18 PM
How good is a Windyty forecast? Storm heading for the Cape?


I was checking for their track forecast for Harvey, and saw this prediction for the Baja Cape four days out!

https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-01-00,20.982,-108.809,5

I don't know how to post a screen grab, or if that is even the right term for showing what is in the link!

[Edited on 8-28-2017 by AKgringo]




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chuckie
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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 12:37 AM


I think attention has to be paid to all indicators, given whats going on..The same storm is now shown by the NHC, on a Northern path with an 80% chance of getting ugly..



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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 02:00 AM


Surfs up at the end of the August. The 1st and 2nd of Sept. Go to the store Russ and get supplies.:light:
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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 06:15 AM


I'm not sure about the windy site and rely more on eebmike.com.

It will be interesting to compare what happens between the two sites.
I'm stocked up. Thanks Meany
I have been playing on the Windy site and I like the forecast models. You can click on the day and time.




[Edited on 8-28-2017 by Russ]




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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 07:12 AM


eebmike is a great consolidator of info, but ultimately the info is from NOAA/NHC. That's the case with most weather sites. So, there is probably not much difference.

If you want to see multiple predictions of ALREADY FORMED STORMS (TD, TS, HURRICANES), you can look at the computer model page on Weather Underground. This page, at times, seems to become inactive once a storm makes landfall. It is listed in this collection of pages. I think the WU grouping is the best source in one place for this. Not as "pretty" as windyty, granted. To access the overall Hurricane and Tropical Cyclone page on WU, go here. It will show all formed storms and invests on a clickable map of the world. Just not much activity right at the moment.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane

Here is the main page for TS (formerly hurricane) Harvey, in Texas. Notice the clickable options at the bottom. The computer track page is not valid in this case. But if it were earlier in the life of Harvey, it would have shown about five potential tracks generated by five separate computer programs. There is currently no valid computer track page on any storm, as we are between formed hurricanes, worldwide.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropica...






[Edited on 8-28-2017 by Hook]

[Edited on 8-28-2017 by Hook]
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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 07:16 AM


I have found windy site to be quite accurate and use it alot...combined with Buoyweather for local stuff...it usually is accurate for wave height and wind.

I think it will get rather nasty around the tip...it may get sucked over to the warm water and go up the inside or spine so we probably wont even get rain here...but it may go all schizoid and half of it go up the gulf and the other half come up the outside grazing our shores with a big butt swell and wind...I think I will get the plywood ready juuuuust in case. If I was around the tip or Mag Bay area I would definitely be preparing for some weather and if I had travel plans there....I would seriously think about cancelling...unless it is a storm watching trip of course!




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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 08:03 AM


hmmm....that storm is weird...sure looks like even we may get some rain...maybe I wont bet a pack on no rain! Looks like Mulege may get some as the storm sort of goes from the gulf over the spine to the Pacific...the mid peninsula may get real wet this weekend.



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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 08:07 AM


I use Windy all the time everyday for fishing San Diego/Baja. It is accurate for a few days in advance, but since patterns change, the 3-7 day forecast are just indicators, but are good to know.
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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 08:13 AM


Stormsurf model showing the same thing.
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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 08:28 AM


Its not September yet...



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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 08:50 AM


this will be a warm up..dress rehearsal.
because is it a widespread system it may dump rain over a longer period and area...lets hope it moves fast so not much flooding occurs.




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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 09:34 AM


We might squeeze in a kamikazee fishing trip on saturday and head home in the afternoon ahead of the storm. Aint afraid of a little rain. Sailflow is showing BdeLA winds pretty light, all things considered.



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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 10:16 AM


should be ok till Saturday there but hotter than a mother.



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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 10:53 AM


Its now saying that lil sucker will cause life threatening floods and mudslides over Baja, regardless if it forms into a hurricane..Better do your laundry Shari, so Juan has clean britches..



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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 11:27 AM


that's what I thought when I saw how discombobulated this system looks...lots of rain perhaps...one full day of rain will cause massive flooding in these parts!



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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 11:43 AM


https://www.windy.com/?20.982,-108.809,4

This is current windy page - nothing like in original link. NHC shows disturbance way t the south.
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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 12:11 PM


And Bob's your Uncle...



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AKgringo
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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 12:57 PM


Quote: Originally posted by BajaMama  
https://www.windy.com/?20.982,-108.809,4

This is current windy page - nothing like in original link. NHC shows disturbance way t the south.


My original post was about the forecast reliability, and it showed the projected path on Thursday. If you advance the date a couple of days, it still looks pretty troublesome!




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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 01:24 PM


Kamikazee run aborted. Friends aren't up to the task.



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[*] posted on 8-28-2017 at 03:08 PM


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 28 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure centered about a couple of
hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing widespread
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and this system is
expected to become a tropical cyclone within two or three days while
it moves generally northward or northwestward near the coast of
southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. Residents in those
areas should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical
storm watches could be required for a portion of the area on
Tuesday. Regardless of development, very heavy rain is expected in
southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next few days
and could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.




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