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Author: Subject: How good is a Windyty forecast? Storm heading for the Cape?
Bob and Susan
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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 01:44 PM


they predict rain for mulege Saturday and sunday....

no one shows a path for a storm

that section looks very unorganized

spinners usually form quickly




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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 01:55 PM


NHC and EEBM now showing TWO storms, back to back, closest one to SOC and Mulege is 100% predicting flooding torrential rains..Next one 80% about a day behind...



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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 02:33 PM


chuckie could be correct

satstorm.jpg - 86kB




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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 02:39 PM


Chuckie IS correct...



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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 02:47 PM


Looky at Windy site for saturday. Get your ducks in a row.



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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 04:38 PM


Sittin on high ground out here at the beach in Pescadero. Arroyo Grande may flood as in 2002 Julietta closed the hwy. For us, Two miles back to Hwy 19 passes a few flows or rioletas and mud bogs. Biggest problem is up on hwy if/need to go anywhere?! We're ready for two days/ week or more. Odile has schooled most in our area! If we lose power I hope it's not for long. Most have genies! The locals are the ones that suffer but have been thru many storms before. Thinkin positive. Tio
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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 04:46 PM


Wanna relocate to Houston? At least there ain't no Baja Gators... do chupacabras swim? :?:



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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 05:23 PM


Eebmike has been reliable so far. They all use the same source. For Saturday I would not look at Windy, or any other site - until at least Wed-Thu.
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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 05:32 PM


Quote: Originally posted by tiotomasbcs  
We're ready for two days/ week or more. Odile has schooled most in our area! If we lose power I hope it's not for long. Most have genies!

"All" must have solar, in addition to genie. Works under heavy clouds too, just not as good. Enough to run a small fridge and lights.

I'm curious - what "ready" means and how it would help, other than packing couple of boxes of supplies to run away, leaving everything behind. That is, - if road conditions will let you go. After the Odille many people were stranded, and being stranded on the road can be worse than at home.
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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 05:43 PM


don't drive in the rain...the vados flood FAST

all the big semis sit at the gas station
smart

just hunker down

the wind is the bad thing out here on the bay.
those shells HURT!!!




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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 06:22 PM


Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view  
Looky at Windy site for saturday. Get your ducks in a row.


This site looks cool but not sure if it's a proven commodity. I'm relying on my tried and true along with seasoned veterans on the ground.




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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 06:57 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Bajaboy  
Quote: Originally posted by woody with a view  
Looky at Windy site for saturday. Get your ducks in a row.


This site looks cool but not sure if it's a proven commodity. I'm relying on my tried and true along with seasoned veterans on the ground.


the weather stone?
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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 07:56 PM


Well weather underground and Windy agree on the amount of rain we may expect here in Loreto/Mulege region.



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[*] posted on 8-29-2017 at 11:06 PM


Quote: Originally posted by vandenberg  
Well weather underground and Windy agree on the amount of rain we may expect here in Loreto/Mulege region.

Windy predicts no rain until Thursday morning. Then - moderate 3mm rain until Friday. Then it gets a lot worse on Saturday, but this is 4 days out, so the accuracy is,.... accordingly.
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 04:03 AM


Define accurrate? Somethings coming soon. Beware!

IMG_0077.PNG - 147kB




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 05:43 AM


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Looks like 100% chance of formation and due south of Cabo. Pray for western movement!
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 07:19 AM


Hmmm...this storm is a real trickster capable of anything...this is from this mornings forecast....

"It should be noted that since there is
considerable spread in the model guidance, this official track
forecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty."

What we do know is there will be alot of rain and flooding everywhere in Baja Sur....although it is possible we still get none...because what happens is although the models say it will go west....it gets sucked over to the gulf by the warmer water leaving our little heel of land out of the rain....still not ready to bet we get none but it wouldnt surprise me.....we are preparing anyway.

I am going to start a new storm thread so we can begin to get onsite reports. I heard there was rain yesterday down south so the ground will already be wet which is bad as the ground wont absorb water and it will runoff wildly....remember NEVER CROSS A ROAD WITH WATER RUNNING OVER IT!




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 02:28 PM


THIS is a storm thread already, Shari :)

Accuracy... Some are concerned more about wind, I'm worried more about flood. Numbers are important. 3mm/day of rain is nothing, 30 mm may cause flood (and will, if it lasts for more than a day). So far it looks like it will turn to the West on Saturday at BOLA-Asuncion line. Asuncion will get more wind, BOLA - heavy rain up to 20mm, and then it will end.
Can still change.
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 06:01 PM


Quote: Originally posted by wetto  
I have been thinning out and placing things in higher ground storage for the past month or two. on the final push today to store last of the furniture. Waiting for more info before the stove, water heater and refrigerator get moved.
When / if it starts to form into a cyclone I'll do a final pack..
Riverside living in Mulege means always to expect the unexpected. Keeps us on our toes and something to do in the summer doldrums!


wetto: please check your u2u thanks




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[*] posted on 8-31-2017 at 08:01 AM


Mil gracias for your input, Shary (:bounce:)

Your expertise is really appreciated. Please let me know if I should board up the front windows.




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