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Author: Subject: STORM REPORTS from 14E..maybe Lidia...weather & road updates
Udo
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 08:05 AM
STORM REPORTS from 14E..maybe Lidia...weather & road updates


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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 08:05 AM


Off to the market now. Clear skies 91º ~ 76%



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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 08:11 AM



The potential tropical cyclone has not become any better organized
overnight, though available data indicate that the pressures
continue to fall and that the winds have increased to 30 kt. It
appears that there are two centers in the broad circulation, and the
NHC position uses a mean center. Only slow strengthening is
forecast today due to the disorganized surface circulation, but a
more significant intensification could start tomorrow. If the
circulation consolidates, the upper-level winds and water
temperatures are very conducive to strengthening. The NHC forecast
is similar to the previous one, just a bit above the model
consensus. Because the system is forecast to be approaching
hurricane strength as it nears Baja California Sur, the hurricane
watch is maintained. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone
should weaken while it traverses either land or the cooler waters
west of the Baja peninsula.

As before, with the lack of a definite center the initial motion is
quite uncertain, with the current estimate at 335/8 kt. For the
next couple of days, the system/tropical cyclone is expected to move
slowly north-northwestward on the eastern end of a broad mid-level
cyclonic gyre. In 3-5 days the motion should bend toward the
northwest and west-northwest due to a mid-level ridge to the north.
Model guidance has shifted a bit to the east today, and the official
forecast is adjusted in that direction. A tropical storm watch has
been issued for the west coast of Mexico due to the changes in the
forecast. Since the disturbance still lacks a well-defined center
and there is considerable spread in the model guidance, this
official track forecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty.

It is also important to note that very heavy rain causing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides is possible over
portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. Regardless of
exactly how strong the cyclone becomes, this is expected to be a
significant hazard.




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 08:16 AM


Current Windy view




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 08:29 AM


Good advise and fun to read. A few clouds this morning are helping keep us cool but no real sign of Lidia, yet. Prolly see her rolling in tomorrow. Beautiful beach morning with a pumping 5ft South swell. KatieJ used to report from TS and Pescadero in summers past but haven't seen any recent posts. You down here KatieJ?? Talk Baja is also showing good storm updates. I will keep posting. As long as we have power! Cuidate! Amigos. Tomas :coolup:
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 10:05 AM


Yeah Shari, this older format is better for tracking threads and such than Facebook. Advantages to both, maybe a hybrid software?
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 10:09 AM


Quote: Originally posted by shari  
Great to have you onboard Tiotomas & Russ..gracias
I get frustrated with Talk Baja as there are sooooo many members posts fly by and I miss alot or it takes a long time to find the usefull info. I have always appreciated the onsite updates from our Nomad members during storms.


Agree, Facebook is not a great way to archive and see a timeline of posts.
I tried very hard to figure a way to make or have it show, in a fashion that allowed for anyone to reference or look up, older reports.
I only managed to get Ron angry at my questioning options to make Talk Baja more usable as a reference instead of just showing the current conversations. My motives were misunderstood, I was not angry or irritated, but without checking off every possible action, I wasn't satisfied to give up. Oh well, I tried!




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 10:14 AM


This storm is all over the board. Now Windy has it moving into Los Moochis area. We'll see how it unfolds.



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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 10:14 AM


Geez....



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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 11:10 AM


Quote: Originally posted by shari  
Great to have you onboard Tiotomas & Russ..gracias
I get frustrated with Talk Baja as there are sooooo many members posts fly by and I miss alot or it takes a long time to find the usefull info. I have always appreciated the onsite updates from our Nomad members during storms.


Yeah! Theres the pot calling the kettle black, eh?




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woody with a view
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 11:34 AM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  

I only managed to get Ron angry at my questioning options ..... My motives were misunderstood.......!


Yeah, DK you have a knack for that! :lol::lol::lol: Sorry, I couln't resist! :lol::lol::lol:
Now, back to the storm! :lol:




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 11:42 AM




IMG_0078.PNG.jpg - 77kB




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 11:54 AM


Looks like talking about another site is more interesting than the weather. One way of generating more traffic here I guess...If those darn people on Facebook would just quit posting it would be weasier for David to read.
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 12:11 PM




175647_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png - 73kB

[Edited on 8-30-2017 by chippy]
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 12:18 PM


Ron does a pretty good job of keeping weather reports front and center. There is enough room during storms for weather on both sites. and others Like "hurricane info - los cabos bcs"....another good information facebook page.

Lets have some on-site reports here....if it does not disrupt things too much.
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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 01:05 PM
Live SJD & Buena Vista Webcam links


https://www.teamjenwren.com/east-cape-webcam.html

http://www.cabovillas.com/webcams.asp

Sending best wishes to all who be dealing with the the coming weather.




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 01:12 PM


cabo webcam

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvzM171nxrA

looks threatening




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 01:59 PM


Sunny and warm(!) today in San Diego! :cool:

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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 03:24 PM


National Hurricane Center:

"Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 kph) with higher gusts. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by tonight, and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.

NHC said "The disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and only a small increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. The formation chance through 48 hours is high, near 100 percent."

https://phys.org/news/2017-08-nasa-14th-eastern-pacific-ocea...




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[*] posted on 8-30-2017 at 03:56 PM


Ve Knew dot.jajaja



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