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Udo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6321
Registered: 4-26-2008
Location: Black Hills, SD/Ensenada/San Felipe
Member Is Offline
Mood: TEQUILA!
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STORM REPORTS from 14E..maybe Lidia...weather & road updates
Ensenada...pea soup fog. 8:00 a.m.
Udo
Youth is wasted on the young!
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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Off to the market now. Clear skies 91ยบ ~ 76%
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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The potential tropical cyclone has not become any better organized
overnight, though available data indicate that the pressures
continue to fall and that the winds have increased to 30 kt. It
appears that there are two centers in the broad circulation, and the
NHC position uses a mean center. Only slow strengthening is
forecast today due to the disorganized surface circulation, but a
more significant intensification could start tomorrow. If the
circulation consolidates, the upper-level winds and water
temperatures are very conducive to strengthening. The NHC forecast
is similar to the previous one, just a bit above the model
consensus. Because the system is forecast to be approaching
hurricane strength as it nears Baja California Sur, the hurricane
watch is maintained. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone
should weaken while it traverses either land or the cooler waters
west of the Baja peninsula.
As before, with the lack of a definite center the initial motion is
quite uncertain, with the current estimate at 335/8 kt. For the
next couple of days, the system/tropical cyclone is expected to move
slowly north-northwestward on the eastern end of a broad mid-level
cyclonic gyre. In 3-5 days the motion should bend toward the
northwest and west-northwest due to a mid-level ridge to the north.
Model guidance has shifted a bit to the east today, and the official
forecast is adjusted in that direction. A tropical storm watch has
been issued for the west coast of Mexico due to the changes in the
forecast. Since the disturbance still lacks a well-defined center
and there is considerable spread in the model guidance, this
official track forecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty.
It is also important to note that very heavy rain causing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides is possible over
portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. Regardless of
exactly how strong the cyclone becomes, this is expected to be a
significant hazard.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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Current Windy view
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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tiotomasbcs
Super Nomad
Posts: 1837
Registered: 7-30-2007
Location: El Pescadero
Member Is Offline
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Good advise and fun to read. A few clouds this morning are helping keep us cool but no real sign of Lidia, yet. Prolly see her rolling in tomorrow.
Beautiful beach morning with a pumping 5ft South swell. KatieJ used to report from TS and Pescadero in summers past but haven't seen any recent
posts. You down here KatieJ?? Talk Baja is also showing good storm updates. I will keep posting. As long as we have power! Cuidate! Amigos.
Tomas 
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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Member Is Offline
Mood: Happy!
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Yeah Shari, this older format is better for tracking threads and such than Facebook. Advantages to both, maybe a hybrid software?
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64479
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Quote: Originally posted by shari  | Great to have you onboard Tiotomas & Russ..gracias
I get frustrated with Talk Baja as there are sooooo many members posts fly by and I miss alot or it takes a long time to find the usefull info. I have
always appreciated the onsite updates from our Nomad members during storms. |
Agree, Facebook is not a great way to archive and see a timeline of posts.
I tried very hard to figure a way to make or have it show, in a fashion that allowed for anyone to reference or look up, older reports.
I only managed to get Ron angry at my questioning options to make Talk Baja more usable as a reference instead of just showing the current
conversations. My motives were misunderstood, I was not angry or irritated, but without checking off every possible action, I wasn't satisfied to give
up. Oh well, I tried!
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Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
Member Is Offline
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This storm is all over the board. Now Windy has it moving into Los Moochis area. We'll see how it unfolds.
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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Geez....
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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| Quote: Originally posted by shari | Great to have you onboard Tiotomas & Russ..gracias
I get frustrated with Talk Baja as there are sooooo many members posts fly by and I miss alot or it takes a long time to find the usefull info. I have
always appreciated the onsite updates from our Nomad members during storms. |
Yeah! Theres the pot calling the kettle black, eh?
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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Yeah, DK you have a knack for that!  Sorry, I couln't resist!
Now, back to the storm!
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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norte
Super Nomad
Posts: 1163
Registered: 10-8-2008
Member Is Offline
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Looks like talking about another site is more interesting than the weather. One way of generating more traffic here I guess...If those darn people
on Facebook would just quit posting it would be weasier for David to read.
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chippy
Super Nomad
Posts: 1695
Registered: 2-2-2010
Member Is Online
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[Edited on 8-30-2017 by chippy]
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rts551
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6699
Registered: 9-5-2003
Member Is Offline
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Ron does a pretty good job of keeping weather reports front and center. There is enough room during storms for weather on both sites. and others
Like "hurricane info - los cabos bcs"....another good information facebook page.
Lets have some on-site reports here....if it does not disrupt things too much.
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windgrrl
Super Nomad
Posts: 1323
Registered: 9-2-2006
Member Is Offline
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Live SJD & Buena Vista Webcam links
https://www.teamjenwren.com/east-cape-webcam.html
http://www.cabovillas.com/webcams.asp
Sending best wishes to all who be dealing with the the coming weather.
When the way comes to an end, then change. Having changed, you pass through.
~ I-Ching
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6924
Registered: 8-5-2011
Member Is Offline
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cabo webcam
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvzM171nxrA
looks threatening
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17292
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Online
Mood: Hot n spicy
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Sunny and warm(!) today in San Diego! 
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6924
Registered: 8-5-2011
Member Is Offline
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National Hurricane Center:
"Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 kph) with higher gusts. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by tonight, and it could
become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.
NHC said "The disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and only a small increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the
formation of a tropical cyclone. The formation chance through 48 hours is high, near 100 percent."
https://phys.org/news/2017-08-nasa-14th-eastern-pacific-ocea...
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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Ve Knew dot.jajaja
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