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Author: Subject: Windy's Srorm forecast 9/17 & 18
Russ
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[*] posted on 9-11-2017 at 04:53 PM
Windy's Srorm forecast 9/17 & 18


9/17-8am

9/18-6pm




[Edited on 9-12-2017 by Russ]




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woody with a view
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[*] posted on 9-11-2017 at 06:07 PM


This one: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height



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rts551
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[*] posted on 9-11-2017 at 06:16 PM


Maybe. Some forecasters are calling for it to steer away (cold water from Lidia still lurking) and wind sheer. But there is a third storm brewing that they say watch out for.

Which ever forecast is correct we better be aware for the next 20 days or less.
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[*] posted on 9-11-2017 at 06:20 PM


Inwatched the model run at 120 hours out this morning. It had the storm running up the spine of Baja. Now its going into mainland.



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[*] posted on 9-11-2017 at 07:33 PM


Lots of quarterbacks....:light:



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Russ
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[*] posted on 9-11-2017 at 07:44 PM


I seems almost impossible to predict a path even when it's 4 hours out so I don't take any long range, 2 days, seriously. Just a heads up to what might be worth watching.



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Russ
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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 04:50 AM


Forecast Change (Tue. 9/12)
Today Windy shows that storm moving WNW by the weekend (Sat. 9/16) and well off the coast by Monday.
Sat. 9/16

Mon. 9/18




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Bob and Susan
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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 05:17 AM


good...I hate rain



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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 06:08 AM


San Diego needs it..Its downtown area is "Fecally Contaminated" by the homeless...causing a Hepatitis outbreak...



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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 06:34 AM


http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/after-15-die-in-hepatitis-o...



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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 07:15 AM


Remember - there are 2 model tracks on windyty. The GFS shows it going up the Sea of Cortez then hitting the mainand. The European (Russ's post image) shows it going out to the west. Still several days away - these tracks seem to change about twice a day.



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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 07:37 AM


My link above uses GFS or a varient. Inside 90 hours its accurate. Watch out below!



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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 08:16 AM


Changes everyday. That is why people say it is accurate. First post watch out everyone the sky is falling.....today...its over the Pacific...It could change again. Windy nor anyone else, caught the eastbound turn of Irma.
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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 08:49 AM


Thanks woody - I've got that one bookmarked too.

Yep - TS Lidia was a strange one in the sense that it seemed to go right around us (at La Aguja). We had some rain here but not much. Lots of wind and grit everywhere on the Thursday, then some rain during the night and on Friday morning - enough to wash off all the grit and turn things green. We were expecting lots more rain knowing that Todos Santos and Cabo had received a lot....but she went a bit east and hit San Ignacio farther north.

you never know for sure what these things are going to do - just be prepared. Remember we thought Odile was going to stay out to the west til the morning of when she turned and came right at us!

[Edited on 9-13-2017 by bajalinda]




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Russ
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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 08:59 AM


Quote: Originally posted by bajalinda  
Remember - there are 2 model tracks on windyty. The GFS shows it going up the Sea of Cortez then hitting the mainand. The European (Russ's post image) shows it going out to the west. Still several days away - these tracks seem to change about twice a day.


I didn't know that. Nice to see two different forecast. Thanks




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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 09:13 AM


Quote: Originally posted by Russ  
Quote: Originally posted by bajalinda  
Remember - there are 2 model tracks on windyty. The GFS shows it going up the Sea of Cortez then hitting the mainand. The European (Russ's post image) shows it going out to the west. Still several days away - these tracks seem to change about twice a day.


I didn't know that. Nice to see two different forecast. Thanks


De nada, Russ. Use the tab in bottom right corner on windyty to switch tracks - it's interesting, to say the least, that these two are so different for this storm.




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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 10:25 AM


I like this one the best (someone posted it on this site a few years ago):

http://www.eebmike.com/

It shows a lot of different stuff, including the projected path from the national hurricane center in Miami as well as a bunch of different projected paths based on different models. The stuff at the bottom of the site is pretty wonky but for those who really know this stuff that may be helpful too.
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[*] posted on 9-12-2017 at 12:42 PM


I've been posting info form eebmike for years. Definitely my go to sat info site. It does NOAA info and zooms in on BCS.



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[*] posted on 9-14-2017 at 05:12 AM


I prefer the forecast with the soon to be named hurricane heading up to the west... :/
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[*] posted on 9-14-2017 at 05:47 AM


Rain baby rain.

Water is the lifeblood of every living plant or animal that plods this earth.

No summer storms.......Baja is just another wind swept desert, devoid of life and plants....

Much like the landscape on the approach near Punta Abreojos....bleak, barren and stunted.

No rain....livestock which supports rancheros die off. All manner of critters die off and become food for zopilote flocks.
Plants which nourish these livestock/critters shrink and wither....dry wood with no nutrients.
Underground aquifers dry up...the impacts of which is dire to even think about.
No creeks, no pools, no waterfalls.....the riparian habitat dries up, leaving the critters dead and dried up....

Sure enough, some folks will be impacted negatively who live in or very near a floodplain.....some might even lose their lives.
Millions of dollars in damage.....but the impacts of no rain is a horror none of us want to experience.

Entonces...."querida madre naturaleza, más lluvia por favor"




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