Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
|
|
Windy's Srorm forecast 9/17 & 18
9/17-8am
9/18-6pm
[Edited on 9-12-2017 by Russ]
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
|
|
|
woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
|
|
This one: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height
|
|
|
rts551
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6699
Registered: 9-5-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
Maybe. Some forecasters are calling for it to steer away (cold water from Lidia still lurking) and wind sheer. But there is a third storm brewing
that they say watch out for.
Which ever forecast is correct we better be aware for the next 20 days or less.
|
|
|
woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
|
|
Inwatched the model run at 120 hours out this morning. It had the storm running up the spine of Baja. Now its going into mainland.
|
|
|
Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
Member Is Offline
|
|
Lots of quarterbacks....
|
|
|
Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
|
|
I seems almost impossible to predict a path even when it's 4 hours out so I don't take any long range, 2 days, seriously. Just a heads up to what
might be worth watching.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
|
|
|
Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
|
|
Forecast Change (Tue. 9/12)
Today Windy shows that storm moving WNW by the weekend (Sat. 9/16) and well off the coast by Monday.
Sat. 9/16
Mon. 9/18
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
|
|
|
Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8802
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
Member Is Offline
Mood: Full Time Residents
|
|
good...I hate rain
|
|
|
chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
|
|
San Diego needs it..Its downtown area is "Fecally Contaminated" by the homeless...causing a Hepatitis outbreak...
|
|
|
chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
|
|
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/after-15-die-in-hepatitis-o...
|
|
|
bajalinda
Senior Nomad
Posts: 551
Registered: 6-7-2008
Location: Pacific Coast, BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
Remember - there are 2 model tracks on windyty. The GFS shows it going up the Sea of Cortez then hitting the mainand. The European (Russ's post
image) shows it going out to the west. Still several days away - these tracks seem to change about twice a day.
|
|
|
woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
|
|
My link above uses GFS or a varient. Inside 90 hours its accurate. Watch out below!
|
|
|
norte
Super Nomad
Posts: 1163
Registered: 10-8-2008
Member Is Offline
|
|
Changes everyday. That is why people say it is accurate. First post watch out everyone the sky is falling.....today...its over the Pacific...It
could change again. Windy nor anyone else, caught the eastbound turn of Irma.
|
|
|
bajalinda
Senior Nomad
Posts: 551
Registered: 6-7-2008
Location: Pacific Coast, BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
Thanks woody - I've got that one bookmarked too.
Yep - TS Lidia was a strange one in the sense that it seemed to go right around us (at La Aguja). We had some rain here but not much. Lots of wind
and grit everywhere on the Thursday, then some rain during the night and on Friday morning - enough to wash off all the grit and turn things green.
We were expecting lots more rain knowing that Todos Santos and Cabo had received a lot....but she went a bit east and hit San Ignacio farther north.
you never know for sure what these things are going to do - just be prepared. Remember we thought Odile was going to stay out to the west til the
morning of when she turned and came right at us!
[Edited on 9-13-2017 by bajalinda]
|
|
|
Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
|
|
Quote: Originally posted by bajalinda  | | Remember - there are 2 model tracks on windyty. The GFS shows it going up the Sea of Cortez then hitting the mainand. The European (Russ's post
image) shows it going out to the west. Still several days away - these tracks seem to change about twice a day. |
I didn't know that. Nice to see two different forecast. Thanks
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
|
|
|
bajalinda
Senior Nomad
Posts: 551
Registered: 6-7-2008
Location: Pacific Coast, BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
| Quote: Originally posted by Russ | | Quote: Originally posted by bajalinda | | Remember - there are 2 model tracks on windyty. The GFS shows it going up the Sea of Cortez then hitting the mainand. The European (Russ's post
image) shows it going out to the west. Still several days away - these tracks seem to change about twice a day. |
I didn't know that. Nice to see two different forecast. Thanks |
De nada, Russ. Use the tab in bottom right corner on windyty to switch tracks - it's interesting, to say the least, that these two are so different
for this storm.
|
|
|
gallesram
Nomad
Posts: 384
Registered: 7-6-2010
Location: Laguna Beach
Member Is Offline
|
|
I like this one the best (someone posted it on this site a few years ago):
http://www.eebmike.com/
It shows a lot of different stuff, including the projected path from the national hurricane center in Miami as well as a bunch of different projected
paths based on different models. The stuff at the bottom of the site is pretty wonky but for those who really know this stuff that may be helpful
too.
|
|
|
Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
|
|
I've been posting info form eebmike for years. Definitely my go to sat info site. It does NOAA info and zooms in on BCS.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
|
|
|
BajaMama
Super Nomad
Posts: 1106
Registered: 10-4-2015
Location: Pleasanton/Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
Mood: Got Baja fever!!
|
|
I prefer the forecast with the soon to be named hurricane heading up to the west... :/
|
|
|
DaliDali
Super Nomad
Posts: 1132
Registered: 4-21-2010
Location: BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
Rain baby rain.
Water is the lifeblood of every living plant or animal that plods this earth.
No summer storms.......Baja is just another wind swept desert, devoid of life and plants....
Much like the landscape on the approach near Punta Abreojos....bleak, barren and stunted.
No rain....livestock which supports rancheros die off. All manner of critters die off and become food for zopilote flocks.
Plants which nourish these livestock/critters shrink and wither....dry wood with no nutrients.
Underground aquifers dry up...the impacts of which is dire to even think about.
No creeks, no pools, no waterfalls.....the riparian habitat dries up, leaving the critters dead and dried up....
Sure enough, some folks will be impacted negatively who live in or very near a floodplain.....some might even lose their lives.
Millions of dollars in damage.....but the impacts of no rain is a horror none of us want to experience.
Entonces...."querida madre naturaleza, más lluvia por favor"
|
|
|
![[*]](images/xmbforum/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
