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willardguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6451
Registered: 9-19-2009
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I never get tired of seeing that!
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chumlee57
Nomad
Posts: 133
Registered: 11-15-2011
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lets face it, it's awesome to have all the latest techmology, but, it's still simply the weather, which seems to have a dymamic's of it's own. It is
great to have people living in remote places having a platform to let everybody else know whats happening tho, hope this one spins west and away from
baja, maybe push some more warm water up towards San Diego
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17292
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Online
Mood: Hot n spicy
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Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017
The cloud pattern continues to be well organized and convection has
been gradually increasing, primarily in a band to the east of the
center. Dvorak T-numbers and an ASCAT pass over the cyclone indicate
that the initial intensity is 45 kt. With low shear prevailing and
Norma moving over warm waters, gradual strengthening is forecast.
Norma is expected to become a hurricane before it approaches the
Baja California peninsula.
Norma appears to be moving very slowly toward the north at about 2
kt. Steering currents are weak and are provided by a weak ridge of
high pressure over Mexico. This flow is not expected to change
much, so Norma should continue to move very slowly. There was a
change in track guidance tonight, and most of the models shifted a
little bit westward, primarily beyond 3 days. On this basis, the
NHC forecast was also adjusted westward. The latter portion of the
forecast, however, is highly uncertain since the track models
diverge significantly. The NHC track forecast follows the HFIP
corrected consensus, HCCA, and the multi-model simple consensus as
well.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be necessary for portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula later today.
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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rogbag
Nomad
Posts: 124
Registered: 8-27-2008
Location: Los Barriles, BCS
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So far it's a nice day - calm and sunny. Now if it will just stay that way...right on thru Monday. I don't think so, but I bet I will find out.
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
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Mood: Weary
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Hurricanes cant be trusted...
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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No hurricane is illegal.
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motoged
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6481
Registered: 7-31-2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
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Mood: Gettin' Better
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....just bad manners by Mother Nature....
Don't believe everything you think....
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17292
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Online
Mood: Hot n spicy
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Don't be unprepared!
++++
Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017
Norma has a broad circulation but lacks an inner core. The deep
convection has weakened a little bit and is occurring in a few
cyclonically curved bands spiraling around the center. The initial
intensity is kept at 65 kt in this advisory, but Dvorak numbers,
both objective and subjective, are decreasing. The environment is
favorable for strengthening and most of the models suggest that
modest intensification will occur. The NHC forecast follows such
guidance.
Norma has barely moved during the past several hours, but most of
the global models forecast the building of a mid-level high pressure
system over the Gulf of Mexico, and this pattern should induce a
slow northward motion during the next day or so. As the high builds
westward, it will force Norma to move on a more north-northwesterly
track, parallel to the Baja California peninsula. The confidence
in the track forecast is good for the next day or two. After that
time, the guidance envelope expands considerably and becomes bounded
by the easternmost GFS over Baja California and the westernmost
ECMWF over water. These two models are in competition once again.
Given that the circulation of Norma is large and tropical storm
force winds will likely reach the Baja California peninsula, the
government of Mexico has issued tropical storm warnings and watches
accordingly.
[Edited on 9-16-2017 by mtgoat666]
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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DaliDali
Super Nomad
Posts: 1132
Registered: 4-21-2010
Location: BCS
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Lets all hope that now and again, Mother Nature pulls a hissy fit in the form of life giving rainfall.
Baja Sur especially......sees scant rainfall from northern storms in the winter.
These summer tropical storms are the only chance at quenching the thirst of every living land creature and plant.
I can only say.......rain baby rain!!
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
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Mood: Weary
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Dali Dali doesn't own a home in Mulege
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DaliDali
Super Nomad
Posts: 1132
Registered: 4-21-2010
Location: BCS
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And Chuckie doesn't even live in Mexico, yet here he is, caterwauling and whining for those poor souls who decided to occupy a house in a known flood
plain.
And without the periodic summer storms, Mulege would look like any other dried up desert arroyo.
[Edited on 9-16-2017 by DaliDali]
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
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Mood: mellow
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Looks like Norma is already history.
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6924
Registered: 8-5-2011
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Looks like the surfers from Cabo to Asuncion will be having some fun. Might be a little too close though, dunno.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Mexico News Daily | Saturday, September 16, 2017
Tropical storm alerts have been issued in Baja California Sur as Hurricane Norma, 400 kilometers south of Cabo San Lucas this morning, is forecast to
move northward later today.
The United States National Hurricane Center said at 10:00am CDT that the Category 1 hurricane was 110 kilometers east-northeast of Socorro Island and
stationary.
But it is forecast to begin a slow northward motion that will take it near or to the west of the southern Baja peninsula tomorrow and Monday.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Los Barriles to Todos Santos and a tropical storm watch for north of Todos Santos to Cabo San Lázaro.
Maximum sustained winds were near 120 kilometers per hour and little change of strength is expected over the next 48 hours.
The Weather Channel reported that the forecast after Sunday becomes muddy as the storm approaches the Baja peninsula, suggesting it might “meander
west” next week.
Rainfall accumulations of 200-300 millimeters are forecast for the southern portion of Baja California Sur, with amounts over 500 millimeters in some
areas.
Mexico News Daily
Prepare -wait and see really happens. Be safe all though.
Edit: Had to laugh at the path forecast I just got from eebmike.
[Edited on 9-16-2017 by Russ]
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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WOW! First time I've ever "Caterwauled"! Kool!
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Source: eebmike 9pm Saturday
Recent total precipitable water imagery suggests that some dry air
may be wrapping into the circulation, and this will likely
contribute to further weakening. The reliable intensity models all
indicate that steady weakening will occur throughout the forecast
period. By day 5, SSTs below 26 C and very dry air should cause the
tropical storm to become a remnant low. If Norma takes the faster
and farther north track of the GFS, it is likely that it will
become a remnant low sooner than indicated.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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hdn2mx
Junior Nomad
Posts: 75
Registered: 12-8-2002
Location: HB and Todos Santos/Pescadero
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Norma
Close call. Looks like the European model held strong. A little rain, some surf for the tip. I dont think the folks around Cabo needed a hurricane to
mow over them right now. Thanks for the scare Norma. Now have a c-cktail and keep your eye on the tropics, it's still early!
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tiotomasbcs
Super Nomad
Posts: 1837
Registered: 7-30-2007
Location: El Pescadero
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Sunday morning, 7am Sunrise with color over Sierra Laguna. Warm and cloudy but no rain. I can hear the surf pounding, Amigos. A little rain would
be very helpful ! Hey Otis!  Tio
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rogbag
Nomad
Posts: 124
Registered: 8-27-2008
Location: Los Barriles, BCS
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It is partly cloudy with no wind, and it is warm. Sea of Cortez is pretty flat. Looks like another nice day in Los Barriles.
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tiotomasbcs
Super Nomad
Posts: 1837
Registered: 7-30-2007
Location: El Pescadero
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So Norma went out without so much as a wimper here in TS. Hot, humid, dark grey skies with very little wind. No rain! either. This morning I went
outside around 4 am and found the stars and cooler air! My Lab Rio spends nights outside when I turn off A/C. By the way, 2 Ton Trane minisplit
purrs like a kitten and cools the house down nicley afternoon. Sure hard to predict Hurricanes, No?? Tio
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