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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
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Mood: Happy!
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Tropical systems
Couple headed up the coast if forecast holds:
http://www.stormsurfing.com/mobile/npac.html
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little over 300 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple days while the system moves
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western
portion of the eastern North Pacific basin in a couple of days.
Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time
while it moves westward toward the central Pacific.
[Edited on 9-24-2018 by Russ]
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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BajaMama
Super Nomad
Posts: 1106
Registered: 10-4-2015
Location: Pleasanton/Punta Chivato
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Mood: Got Baja fever!!
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Hopefully this five day outlook will hold...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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next weekend looks ominous at this point here in Asuncion...Buoyweather says gale force wind and 18' swell along with thunder, lightening and
rain.....boy that would be something for us!...thinking about betting a bottle of wine on this one!
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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This:
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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I'm betting it doesnt do that! er sure hope it doesnt anyway! This is the first September I havent seen a hurricane in central Baja.
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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Still many days left in Sept.
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Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8804
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
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Mood: Full Time Residents
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actually we need to get to Oct 15th
Historical dates for storms in the last few years
September 15–17, 2000: Tropical Storm Miriam
September 30, 2001: Tropical Storm Juliette
September 19, 2002: Tropical Storm Iselle
August 25, 2003: Hurricane Ignacio
September 22, 2003: Hurricane Marty
September 19, 2004: Tropical Depression Javier
September 30-October 3, 2005: Hurricane Otis
July 27–28, 2006: Tropical Storm Emilia
September 2, 2006: Hurricane John
October 23–25, 2006: Tropical Storm Paul
July 2007: Tropical Storm Dalila
September, 2007: Hurricane Henriette
August 25, 2008: Tropical Storm Julio
September 11, 2008: Tropical Depression Lowell
October 11, 2008: Hurricane Norbert
September 2, 2009: Hurricane Jimena
Early October 2009:Tropical Storm Olaf
October 14, 2009: Tropical Storm Patricia
October 18 and 19, 2009: Hurricane Rick
September 20, 2010: Tropical Storm Georgette San Jose del Cabo
Mid-August 2012: Los Cabos flooding Tropical Storm Hector
September 3, 2012: Tropical Storm John
September 18, 2012: Tropical Storm Kristy
September 24–26, 2012: Hurricane Miriam
September 28, 2012: Tropical Storm Norman
October 15–18, 2012: Hurricane Paul
September 13, 2014: Hurricane Odile
September 6, 2016: Hurricane Newton
June 14 - 15, 2018: Hurricane Bud
September 19 - 20, 2018: Tropical Depression Nineteen-E
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BajaMama
Super Nomad
Posts: 1106
Registered: 10-4-2015
Location: Pleasanton/Punta Chivato
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Mood: Got Baja fever!!
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This morning looks pretty good. Hope the roof stays on until mid-October!
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
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Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Windyty.com sez a week from tomorrow does not bode well for Baja. Time will tell, so keep an eye out.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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I have never been through a September with no storm warning here in central baja. Looks like Rosa will possibly affect us but not till Oct.1st...this
morning Buoyweather has a projected peak waves of 36' for Sunday....wowza....must be a typo! The ocean is still pretty cold.
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tiotomasbcs
Super Nomad
Posts: 1837
Registered: 7-30-2007
Location: El Pescadero
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I'm happy to see it moving west and North before it turns. Our water temp in Pescadero is in low 80s!! And October always seems to send a few our
way. Has Juan built a rock basement at the Inn? Remember, it's still a week out. Suerte a todos! Tio
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AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5815
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
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Mood: Retireded
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On the Windy.com site, there is usually a difference in the forecast between the European model (ECMWF) and the NOAA model (GFS).
For the next week, the difference is more extreme than usual, you should track the progress of both models if you use that site!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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blackwolfmt
Senior Nomad
Posts: 802
Registered: 1-18-2014
Location: On The Beach With A Blackwolf
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Mood: dreamin of Riden out a hurricane in Baja
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Looks like it is headed NNW before it turns NNE and gives Baja norte and Az some moisture early next week
So understand dont waste your time always searching for those wasted years
face up and make your stand and realize that your living in the golden years
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AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5815
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
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Mood: Retireded
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Difference between forecast models
I mentioned that the models differ more than usual on the approaching tropical disturbance. Take a look at this projection based on the ECMWF
(European model), then go to the lower right corner of the screen and select the GFS (NOAA model)
https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-01-18,25.998,-109.490,5
This forecast is for Monday!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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willardguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6451
Registered: 9-19-2009
Member Is Offline
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really looking forward to getting my car window speckled here in rosarito! 
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Wow...I'm rooting for the European Model for sure...if NOAA is correct we are screwed!
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15937
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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The gringo model only shows Rosa. The Euro model shows a follow on second storm. We shall see but inside 100 hours the gringo model is pretty
accurate! Look out below!
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blackwolfmt
Senior Nomad
Posts: 802
Registered: 1-18-2014
Location: On The Beach With A Blackwolf
Member Is Offline
Mood: dreamin of Riden out a hurricane in Baja
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/203216.s...
I think I heard BajaTrailRider praying for some rain
So understand dont waste your time always searching for those wasted years
face up and make your stand and realize that your living in the golden years
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willardguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6451
Registered: 9-19-2009
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I saw this today and immediately thought about Larry!
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