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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64490
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Hurricane Rosa may cut across Baja Norte Oct. 1 or 2
This could mean flooded arroyos. I would be prepared for Hwy. 1 and 5 to be cut off for a day or two.
Here is the warning from http://eebmike.com/ :
Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018
Rosa has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several
hours, with a distinct and warm eye noted on satellite images along
with deep eyewall convection. A blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates gives an initial wind speed estimate of 125 kt, making
Rosa the seventh category 4 hurricane of the very busy 2018 eastern
Pacific hurricane season. It is worth noting that this value ties
2015 for the highest observed seasonal total in the basin during
the satellite era.
The hurricane still has a chance to intensify further given that it
is still over warm waters within light shear. By the weekend,
however, Rosa will encounter more marginal SSTs, and the shear
will likely increase. These conditions should cause a significant
weakening of the hurricane by early next week, and for Rosa to fall
back to a tropical storm by Tuesday. The intensity forecast isn't
particularly confident at long range because of the possibility of a
trough interaction somewhat offsetting the effects of cool eastern
Pacific waters and dry stable air. So far the guidance is fairly
consistent, and the forecast continues to show steady weakening as
Rosa approaches Baja California.
[Edited on 9-28-2018 by David K]
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9268
Registered: 10-3-2003
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Wouldn't it be fun to be in the middle of the Mulege to San Isidro Trail when it hit?
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64490
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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[Edited on 9-28-2018 by David K]
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AKgringo
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Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
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The storm right on Rosa's tail could be an even bigger threat. The attached forecast is over a week out, so a lot could change, but take a look!:
https://www.windy.com/?gfs,2018-10-07-00,26.077,-109.578,5,m...
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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Bajazly
Senior Nomad
Posts: 994
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Location: Goodbye Cali and Hello San Felipe
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Quote: Originally posted by JZ  | Wouldn't it be fun to be in the middle of the Mulege to San Isidro Trail when it hit?
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In 2016 we woke up on the beach in Bahia Conception about dawn in the eye of Newton. Had no idea it was even a thing till we got to Santa Rosalia and
found out what we were in. We were the last two trucks out of town heading north late that afternoon after fording 4 rivers running across the main
road that no one would drive thru. That night in Viciano it was rainbows and partly cloudy skies. Next day in San Rafael it was crystal clear and 8 to
10 foot waves breaking on the beach with some great fishing after the surf died down a bit. Good times for sure.
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
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Your headline is wrong, alarmist hysteria! Should say: “hurricane Rosa likely to NOT hit baja, remnant low pressure system to cut across baja”
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17338
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| Quote: Originally posted by JZ | | Wouldn't it be fun to be in the middle of the Mulege to San Isidro Trail when it hit |
No.
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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bajatrailrider
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Posts: 2423
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Location: Mexico
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Has a hurricane ever hit North Baja.
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9268
Registered: 10-3-2003
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| Quote: Originally posted by Bajazly |
In 2016 we woke up on the beach in Bahia Conception about dawn in the eye of Newton. Had no idea it was even a thing till we got to Santa Rosalia and
found out what we were in. We were the last two trucks out of town heading north late that afternoon after fording 4 rivers running across the main
road that no one would drive thru. That night in Viciano it was rainbows and partly cloudy skies. Next day in San Rafael it was crystal clear and 8 to
10 foot waves breaking on the beach with some great fishing after the surf died down a bit. Good times for sure. |
Nice. I've rode out a couple on the mainland, but not Baja yet.
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joerover
Banned
Posts: 676
Registered: 2-3-2011
Location: earth
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Mood: sleepy
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| Quote: Originally posted by Bajazly |
In 2016 we woke up on the beach in Bahia Conception about dawn in the eye of Newton. Had no idea it was even a thing till we got to Santa Rosalia and
found out what we were in. . |
Hurricanes aint no joke. Newton was not a hurricane after a few hundred miles over land.
the fat lady is breeding
which means
The fat ladys are breeding
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64490
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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| Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 |
Your headline is wrong, alarmist hysteria! Should say: “hurricane Rosa likely to NOT hit baja, remnant low pressure system to cut across baja”
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It is called Hurricane Rosa NOW, what it will be in the future is only a guess, like the guess of global warming 20-50 years from now.
Rosa will likely be a tropical storm or maybe only a depression... but it is Rosa. San Diego weather is calling for rain Monday and Tuesday caused by
it. These are also not my names or estimates but those of the weather links I posted. I don't make up the news, I only report what I saw.
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chuckie
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http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/rosa-intensifies...
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Beagle
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Location: Outer Rim
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I'm just getting to know Windy and love it. However, still not sure what the difference is between the ECMWF and the GFS Models. ECMWF has that one
maybe staying west while GFS has it still coming back right over the coast. Is one considered more accurate than the other? Thanks, just curious.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Predicting a strom/hurricane track has always been a crap shoot to do accurately. The 2am track changed little from DK's 8pm one. Moved a little more
north and the change to a storm has changed to down grade after it crosses over land now. It still has a lot of time to change so stay tuned for more
accurate info. But DK's header is correct this morning. Photbucket is taking too long so I'll edit this when I can to show the newest track.
[Edited on 9-28-2018 by Russ]
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6741
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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| Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 |
Your headline is wrong, alarmist hysteria! Should say: “hurricane Rosa likely to NOT hit baja, remnant low pressure system to cut across baja”
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Jees Goat your info is alarming! If Rosa does strengthen as forecast in DK's post and folks listen to your Dibble and not be prepared it could cause
major problems for them. Everyone should have a plans for disasters of this sort. That's just being smart not "alalmist hysteria"
[Edited on 9-28-2018 by Russ]
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
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ECMWF and the GFS Models
A quick google says they are different mathematical models for weather prediction. The difference is in the complex equations employed and the way
they use a vast amount of input data.
For both models, predictions further out in the future become less certain because errors compound with time. The differences in modeling techniques
can cause future predictions to diverge.
I don't know which one has a better track record.
[Edited on 9-28-2018 by SFandH]
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John Harper
Super Nomad
Posts: 2289
Registered: 3-9-2017
Location: SoCal
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| Quote: Originally posted by SFandH | ECMWF and the GFS Models
A quick google says they are different mathematical models for weather prediction. The difference is in the complex equations employed and the way
they use a vast amount of input data.
For both models, predictions further out in the future become less certain because errors compound with time. The differences in modeling techniques
can cause future predictions to diverge.
I don't know which one has a better track record. |
While watching TV reporting on Florence, the meteorologist compared the two models, his statement was that the European model was generally accepted
as a bit more accurate. Of course this is for east coast hurricanes, so not sure you can compare or not.
John
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
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GFS is better. But when weather is involved nothing is perfect.
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bajaguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9247
Registered: 9-16-2003
Location: Carson City, NV/Ensenada - Baja Country Club
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Mood: must be 5 O'clock somewhere in Baja
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A weather forecaster can be 100% wrong and still receive a paycheck
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willardguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6451
Registered: 9-19-2009
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the weather stone is always spot on
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