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Author: Subject: SERGIO
bajabuddha
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[*] posted on 10-2-2018 at 12:55 PM
SERGIO


Hurricane Sergio is headed out to sea according to wunderground, which only projects the next 5 days. However, windyty is showing a future U-turn next week and the storm picking up more force, and heading right back towards Baja. Gonna be worth keeping an eye on for sure... I hope they're wrong.




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[*] posted on 10-2-2018 at 02:21 PM


Wierd track but this model is only accurate within 100 hours.
Check back on Friday.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height




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[*] posted on 10-2-2018 at 02:52 PM


For what it is worth, the long range forecast for the European model (ECMWF), and the NOAA (GFS), are remarkably similar this time!

https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-12-00,20.386,-96.372,4

It would be interesting to see a hurricane make almost a U-turn after a week at sea!




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[*] posted on 10-2-2018 at 03:10 PM


Fwiw, early season storms tend to head west or north west. Late season storms appear to be affected by the Coriolis Effect and bend into land.

YMMV




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[*] posted on 10-3-2018 at 03:36 PM


As of now windyty.com has ol' Sergio headed right for Shari's by Friday the 12th. Again, hope they're wrong, but now's the time to stay alert and keep the third eye on him. Never seen a storm do a U-ey before. Suerte to all.




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[*] posted on 10-3-2018 at 04:57 PM


10 days is forever. Does’t hurt to keep an eye on it. Check back after Monday.



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[*] posted on 10-4-2018 at 08:07 AM


Oh for Pete's sakes.....really Sergio??? Oh well...my garden is already toast anyway...shrug.



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[*] posted on 10-4-2018 at 09:26 AM


this is what windy.com predicts for next week at this time...dang...

SErgio.jpg - 28kB




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[*] posted on 10-4-2018 at 11:38 AM


What a crazy turn I think Sergio has a mind of his own

144621_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png - 55kB




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[*] posted on 10-4-2018 at 11:45 AM


yo sergio........R O S A R I T O

we is DRY!
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[*] posted on 10-4-2018 at 11:49 AM


Sergio is upset because Rosa left him. He heard that she was headed toward Guerrero Negro, and is hot on her trail!



[Edited on 10-4-2018 by AKgringo]




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[*] posted on 10-4-2018 at 04:38 PM


predictions for next Friday don't look good...

fri4pm.jpg - 78kB




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[*] posted on 10-4-2018 at 04:52 PM


whoa...maybe Rosa was just a dress rehearsal....rut roh



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[*] posted on 10-4-2018 at 11:03 PM


Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha  
Hurricane Sergio is headed out to sea according to wunderground, which only projects the next 5 days. However, windyty is showing a future U-turn next week and the storm picking up more force, and heading right back towards Baja. Gonna be worth keeping an eye on for sure... I hope they're wrong.


Wunderground and windyty are pretty crappy for anything 3+ days out, but more reliable NWS forecasts show Sergio moisture coming up thru SOC into AZ... however analysis shows uncertainty that many days out,...
But could be Rosa part deux.




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[*] posted on 10-5-2018 at 07:48 AM


Quote: Originally posted by shari  
whoa...maybe Rosa was just a dress rehearsal....rut roh


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[*] posted on 10-5-2018 at 08:18 AM
8 AM Today (Friday)


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 051448
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018

...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 121.8W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 121.8 West. Sergio is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is expected Saturday followed by a turn back to the
west on Sunday. Afterward, Sergio is forecast to turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional slow weakening
is forecast during the next several days, but Sergio is expected to
remain a hurricane through the middle of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.




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[*] posted on 10-5-2018 at 05:17 PM


If you select the rain forecast on the Windy site, it looks like Bahia Asuncion could get pretty wet in just about a week! (3.78 inches)

I know, I know....a week out is a pretty iffy prediction, but it fascinates me!

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?gfs,rain,2018-10-11...



[Edited on 10-6-2018 by AKgringo]




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[*] posted on 10-5-2018 at 05:36 PM


Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  
If you select the rain forecast on the Windy site, it looks like Bahia Asuncion could get pretty wet in just about a week! (3.78 inches)

I know, I know....a week out is a pretty iffy prediction, but it fascinates me!

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?gfs,rain,2018-10-11...



[Edited on 10-6-2018 by AKgringo]



I hear ya Amigo, I think the jet stream next week is going too help drag him north that's my prediction..
BTW i am in No way affiliated with the GOAT meteorological service




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[*] posted on 10-5-2018 at 05:45 PM


Another nothing burger? Lol
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[*] posted on 10-5-2018 at 06:50 PM


Quote: Originally posted by ehall  
Another nothing burger?

Who knows... Burgers or not, Goat is right now - it is difficult to tell much outside of 72 hours. No matter what website, it's just too early yet.

Windy shows rain and wind on some time Thursday. 2pm report by eebmike/NOAA shows yet more sharp U-turn than before, with center of the cone shifting South of BA.
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