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Hook
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Every website I saw missed the downgrade to TS by 24-36 hours.
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Hook
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Depending on when that was shot, that's a real testament to how well protected that marina is. Boats can take water, if their bilge pumps are working.
The wind looks, at most 20-25 knots.
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Alm
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Windy.com was the website I used, too. Predicted up to 1.5 inch/hour in BA (yes, twice as much as 3/4 downpour in Sonora), and 3/4 inch/hour in BOLA.
It "could" be it, for an hour or two. It arrived to BA at sunset, and to Cortez just before dawn. Nobody here confirmed these high numbers with his
own weather station, probably nobody wanted to go outside in the middle of the night.
The only other possibility is that Windy screwed up on rain data, big time. I wrote earlier that Windy numbers don't make sense, with rain intensity
WAY over 8 mm/hour for 6-7 hours, and rain totals 40 mm/day 
[Edited on 10-13-2018 by Alm]
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Hook
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When did windy predict the downgrade to TS? Last time I looked at it, it was in agreement that it would remain a Cat 1, as it went ashore on Baja.
Instead, it was downgraded 24-36 hours before that.
I find windy.com to be the prettiest interface, but that's about it. I prefer the ensemble models from the NHC. But they dont generally predict
rainfall amounts, which are important. More important than wind, usually. But, as it turned out, not in this case. This seems to be a relatively "dry"
tropical event.
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Alm
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Windy.com doesn't generate labels Cat1, Cat2, tropical storm etc. It only predicts wind force. For BA it predicted upper 40-ish knots during the peak
time, for BOLA a little less. Which was in agreement with Eeb/NOAA. Real peak numbers - don't know. I see 20-ish not in the peak. Wide-ars guess ...
30-ish peak on Cortez?
On the rain numbers Windy didn't do a good job, only approximate time of the beginning and end, give or take 4 hours. But there are no other
good/better sources on rain.
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Hook
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Rain amounts are just so unpredictable.
Try and predict the rainiest part of a spinning cyclone and then predict where the wettest arms will impact which portion of land.
Then figure in orographics.
Even a bit much for computers.
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SFandH
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Quote: Originally posted by Hook  | When did windy predict the downgrade to TS? Last time I looked at it, it was in agreement that it would remain a Cat 1, as it went ashore on Baja.
Instead, it was downgraded 24-36 hours before that.
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I remember windy predicting 40 - 50 kt max winds, depending upon where you clicked on the map about two days before landfall when you advanced the
time slider to landfall. I knew that's tropical storm, not hurricane force. The app didn't explicitly say "tropical storm".
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Alm
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| Quote: Originally posted by Hook | Rain amounts are just so unpredictable.
Try and predict the rainiest part of a spinning cyclone and then predict where the wettest arms will impact which portion of land.
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That must be it - spinning nature of cyclone.
Every time I looked at the expected yellow-red areas on Windy - i.e. very wet areas, 15-30mm/hr - for the same land spot and same date/time they
changed every few hours. Rain clouds are spinning around the eye of the hurricane, and the eye itself is moving forward and changing/deteriorating
over mountainous terrain.
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JZ
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Been raining in Los Angeles for the last 3hrs. Had very rare thunder and even much rarer lightning flashes.
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shari
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SErgio was a gnarly affair here in Asuncion, La Bocana & Abreojos. Power remained on thanks to amazing CFE crews but internet was on and off and
we were busy trying to keep the water out of the house!
Rain started before dawn and lasted 24 hours...it rained like a banshee for awhile but most of the rain was light which saved us from alot of
flooding...only very minor road damage and winds luckily were only about 40-45 at the peak.
the worst part of these October storms is having to cancel fishing charters 3 weekends in a row!!! that hurts
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Vince
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Impressive rain in San Carlos. The location looks like it could be in any marina anywhere, big yachts, big houses. A long way from the San Carlos
that I first met in 1954 when there was absolutely no structures or boats on/ in the bay. A diver's and hunter's paradise!
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Bajame
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Has anybody heard about san Ignacio?
We all want a peaceful world, filled with love and laughter, but we fill ourselves with anger and hate trying to fiqure out how to achive it.
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shari
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I heard the river was over the road yesterday but likely down now
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Barry A.
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| Quote: Originally posted by Vince | | Impressive rain in San Carlos. The location looks like it could be in any marina anywhere, big yachts, big houses. A long way from the San Carlos
that I first met in 1954 when there was absolutely no structures or boats on/ in the bay. A diver's and hunter's paradise! |
I was there too, Vince, about that same time (early '50's), for a week. Nothing made by man was there other than a couple of gringos camping out, and
it was spectacular!
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shari
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Just got a road report from fishermen from San Hipolito...the dirt road from Asuncion to La Bocana is still not passable nor is the road from the
highway into Abreojos.
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