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Author: Subject: SERGIO
SFandH
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[*] posted on 10-9-2018 at 04:28 PM


Colorful: https://www.windy.com/?20.982,-108.809,5



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[*] posted on 10-9-2018 at 05:24 PM


At least it appears that the system will pass over Baja rather quickly. It would be a whole different consequence if a storm parked over the area like Florence did on the east coast!



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[*] posted on 10-9-2018 at 06:33 PM


Most recent update now has it at tropical storm status. About 24 hours earlier than predicted. Path is still the same.
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Alm
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[*] posted on 10-9-2018 at 06:42 PM


It will be rain that will do most damage this time, and it will not go fast. Straight 18 hours of rain in BOLA. Total rain accumulation varies btw the 2 models, one reads 8mm and another one 50mm.

BA will get 1.5 times water - 28 hours straight and 20-80mm accumulation.

Slight change of course in the next 2 days is possible.

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Hook
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[*] posted on 10-9-2018 at 08:44 PM


18 hours of precipitation producing 8mm would have to be the longest DRIZZLE in the history of Baja. OK, I'm exaggerating............

But seriously, accumulations of 8mm or 50 mm or 20-80 mm are nothing. I think your units must be wrong. Do you mean cm?

[Edited on 10-10-2018 by Hook]
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Alm
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[*] posted on 10-9-2018 at 11:12 PM


Nope, mm. That's what I see on Windy page -> rain accumulation -> 3 days. Rain begins Thursday afternoon in BA, Friday 1am in BOLA, and ends Friday evening.

Out of those long hours of rain, only ~1/3 of time rain is expected to exceed 8 mm/hr by GFS model.

8 mm/hr is a heavy rain, but their totals don't make sense. For example, in BOLA there will be 7 hours with more then 8mm per hour, including few hours with over 15mm/hr - this is a VERY heavy rain. Adds up to more than 60 mm total. Plus some drizzle 0.1-7.9 mm/hr the rest of the time. Should be 90-100 mm total. But it says only 50 mm total.

ECMF model predicts a weaker rain and less total accumulation.

[Edited on 10-10-2018 by Alm]
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 07:34 AM


I put off any predictions but now that is a lot closer I urge everyone to be prepared for some tropical storm dangers. Most of you know the drill so I won't get into that. Please check on your neighbors and help where you are able. I'll report from here as long as I have internet service. I think those that aren't going thru a storm worry more than those involved so post info to help them with their worries.



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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 09:26 AM


800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The cloud pattern associated with Sergio has not changed very much,
and it consists of a cyclonically curved convective band surrounding
a large and ragged eye feature. Since the convection is weaker, the
Dvorak estimates suggest that winds are gradually decreasing, and
the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. Some fluctuations
in intensity are likely during the next 12 to 24 hours while the
cyclone is still moving over relatively warm waters and is embedded
in a low shear environment. Both of these factors will become
unfavorable soon, and consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
weakening. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical
storm by the time it approaches the Baja California peninsula. After
that time, Sergio will move over mainland Mexico and weaken much
faster.

Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 11 kt. The
cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated
with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will
continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened
Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in
about 2 days, but winds along the coast are anticipated to increase
earlier. Track models are in very good agreement, and consequently
the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast is not
different from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance
envelope.




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Alm
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 09:33 AM


Rain totals have been adjusted upwards overnight.
It is now 90mm for BA (both models in agreement) and 16-60mm for BOLA (discrepancy between 2 models, probably because it's hard to predict how mountain terrain will affect it).

Total duration of rain remains about the same, +24 hrs for BA, +18 hrs for BOLA.
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Hook
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 09:39 AM


Quote: Originally posted by Alm  
Nope, mm. That's what I see on Windy page -> rain accumulation -> 3 days. Rain begins Thursday afternoon in BA, Friday 1am in BOLA, and ends Friday evening.

Out of those long hours of rain, only ~1/3 of time rain is expected to exceed 8 mm/hr by GFS model.

8 mm/hr is a heavy rain, but their totals don't make sense. For example, in BOLA there will be 7 hours with more then 8mm per hour, including few hours with over 15mm/hr - this is a VERY heavy rain. Adds up to more than 60 mm total. Plus some drizzle 0.1-7.9 mm/hr the rest of the time. Should be 90-100 mm total. But it says only 50 mm total.

Oh, 8mm per HOUR! That's a horse of a different color.

ECMF model predicts a weaker rain and less total accumulation.

[Edited on 10-10-2018 by Alm]
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 09:54 AM


Hook, it "was" 8mm total for BOLA in earlier forecast, as per ECMF model (50mm total per GFS model).
In that earlier forecast ECMF predicted less than 3mm/hr during this period, GFS - more than 8mm/hr at times.

Both models have been adjusted upwards now, - a little more water. I keep my fingers crossed that ECMF is correct @total 16mm.
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 10:01 AM


1 inch = 25.4 mm



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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 10:40 AM


1 mm of rain = 1 liter of water covering one square meter.

These numbers don't tell much. 8 mm/hr means heavy rain, total 80 mm a day means flooded basements and puddles on the road.

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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 11:50 AM


We are in Cabo Pulmo and leaving tomorrow morning heading north with a stop in Guerrero negro
Still not sure if we will go up the 5 from Chapala to the border it took us 3 1/2 hours to get from 25k south of San Felipe to Papa Fernandez just north of Gonzaga on Saturday on our way down
We might take the 1 and cross over to Tacate or San Felipe
Hope we can stay ahead of Sergio
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 01:13 PM


Leaving from Cabo on Thursday, you will stay "behind" Sergio, not ahead.
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 01:41 PM


Quote: Originally posted by shari  
my crystal ball says that Sergio will be seduced by warmer sexier water down south of us....Mag Bay or Scorpion Bay. Asuncion is too cool man:cool:


I'm sending you a extra coolness beam to help steer the Sergio away from my sacred fishing grounds (your house🙂).
Where do you want it to land?
Not that you need any extra coolness...😉




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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 02:25 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Alm  
Rain totals have been adjusted upwards overnight.
It is now 90mm for BA (both models in agreement) and 16-60mm for BOLA (discrepancy between 2 models, probably because it's hard to predict how mountain terrain will affect it).

Total duration of rain remains about the same, +24 hrs for BA, +18 hrs for BOLA.


OK, got it.

That just doesnt seem like much rain to worry about. But I went through one TS (Julio) and one hurricane (Jimena) in Sonora in the first two years I lived there. They dropped 228 mm and 762 mm in 24 hours, respectively.
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 03:25 PM


So how much water did Odile drop, in total 24 hours, for BA or BOLA?
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 03:35 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Russ  
I put off any predictions but now that is a lot closer I urge everyone to be prepared for some tropical storm dangers. Most of you know the drill so I won't get into that. Please check on your neighbors and help where you are able. I'll report from here as long as I have internet service. I think those that aren't going thru a storm worry more than those involved so post info to help them with their worries.


Thank you Russ! We are driving out the PC road next Thursday, please post road condition so we can plan accordingly. Hopefully the roof will still be on when we get there!
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 04:14 PM


It appears Sergio has moved a little north over the past hours but the tropical storm warnings are still in effect thru out central baja.

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The organization of the cloud pattern has remained unchanged during
the day, except that the deep convection has continued to weaken.
Nevertheless, Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an
initial intensity of 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is over relatively
warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Since both
of these factors will become unfavorable in about 12 to 24 hours,
the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected
to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja
California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over
mainland Mexico and weaken much faster.

Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 12 kt. The
cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated
with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will
continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened
Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in
about a day and half, but winds will reach the coast a little bit
earlier. Track models continue to be in very good agreement, and
consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast
remains unchanged and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend.




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