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Author: Subject: SERGIO
shari
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 05:43 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Alm  
So how much water did Odile drop, in total 24 hours, for BA or BOLA?


Odile didnt rain on our parade here in Asuncion...but the Vizcaino Valley got hammered. Today we took a trip to Guerrero Negro and there were many CFE rigs heading to Asuncion, La Bocana, Abreojos so they are braced for action in central Baja.
We heard a rumour that they were thinking of evacuating some areas of Vizcaino as it floods pretty bad with alot of rain.




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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 05:48 PM


Should be interesting headed down Sat O-dark-3O to BdeLA.



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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 05:52 PM


The key words:
...primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora.

("Sur" here really means "Central Baja").

50 knots winds tomorrow at BA, slightly less in BOLA.
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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 06:17 PM


In the past, hurricane rains at Lagoons at camp Rene and San ignacio and Manuela have been followed by a winter season with increase in fish and very large increase in bird populations,... so there is a benefit from all that floodwater flushing the land and nutrients to the lagoons.



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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 06:22 PM


I just there was a pony in there somewhere,,,,



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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 06:25 PM


Quote: Originally posted by chuckie  
I just there was a pony in there somewhere,,,,


Don’t know about ponies, but there are some unicorns :cool:




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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 07:30 PM


Snowflakes..... 🤣

Edit: hold on tight kiddies!

[Edited on 10-11-2018 by woody with a view]




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[*] posted on 10-10-2018 at 09:47 PM


Quote: Originally posted by shari  
...there were many CFE rigs heading to Asuncion, La Bocana, Abreojos so they are braced for action in central Baja.
Those who badmouth CFE haven't seen their field people in chubasco season! :bounce:



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    shari
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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 06:31 AM


    well it started raining before dawn this morning here in Bahia Asuncion....gonna be a wet one dang!
    Where else is it raining?
    I look forward to live updates and reports....por favor!




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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 07:14 AM


    Got in to Punta Chivato yesterday (hi Russ) afternoon, came down Hwy 1due to reports of 5 being closed North of Gonzaga. Other than the delay south of ensenada for construction, very smooth trip. Waiting for Sergio, will report anything worth reporting.




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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 07:21 AM


    Hi Shari


    It has been sprinkling here. For sure, you can't call it rain.


    No wind at all.




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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 07:45 AM


    I don't post much but have been reading this forum for a couple years. Thought I'd give real time info from last night:
    Made it to Ensenada last night about 8:30pm.
    Catavina was still working on the deep arroyo which still had water in it. Another arroyo in Catavina was also wet and from there north to Rosario there was several places with standing water on either side of the road.
    Then 30 miles from Mandaero(sp?) the road work continues and looks like a it could be a good setup for a landslide with a little rain and wind. Down to one lane. No problems driving it but catavina to Rosario sure doesn't look like its going to take much rain at all to wash it all out again.

    [Edited on 10-11-2018 by Rocinante]
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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 08:04 AM


    Thanks Rocinante, the up to minute information really does help a lot!



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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 08:52 AM


    Quote: Originally posted by Rocinante  
    I don't post much but have been reading this forum for a couple years. Thought I'd give real time info from last night:
    Made it to Ensenada last night about 8:30pm.
    Catavina was still working on the deep arroyo which still had water in it. Another arroyo in Catavina was also wet and from there north to Rosario there was several places with standing water on either side of the road.
    Then 30 miles from Mandaero(sp?) the road work continues and looks like a it could be a good setup for a landslide with a little rain and wind. Down to one lane. No problems driving it but catavina to Rosario sure doesn't look like its going to take much rain at all to wash it all out again.

    [Edited on 10-11-2018 by Rocinante]


    The chances are incredibly high that Sergio will impact this area significantly, with rain.

    The only good news is that the storm is now moving at 17 kts, incredibly fast. Maybe it will pass quickly............or maybe it will stall over the mtns. of central Baja. Quien sabes?

    If you are traveling south on Fri/Sat/Sun, be prepared to wait out arroyos. They will be flowing.

    [Edited on 10-11-2018 by Hook]
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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 09:30 AM


    Just fixed my wind thingy on the weather station! 5mph WNW (unusual). Some light clouds 83º - 54%
    baro 29.82in
    Can't copy IMGs on photobucket so no photos.





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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 09:30 AM
    From www.EBMIKE.COM













    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP21201...

    [Edited on 10-12-2018 by David K]




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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 09:38 AM


    the "calm" before the storm...
    it sure wont be like THIS tomorrow...
    picture taken 10:30am Oct 11th

    IMG_1757.JPG - 217kB




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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 10:06 AM


    Relax, Bob, this one is not meant for you.

    Eeb/NOAA have corrected the path a little to the South - after it hits the coast at Asuncion. The center is now close to Sta Rosalia (was at Pto S.Francisquito). But the rain is not centered in the eye of hurricane, it's more at the edges/tails of the path. BOLA and Mulege could still get some. Possibly 3-5 hours of heavy rain, with drizzle before and after. We shall see.
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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 10:36 AM


    ECMWF model rain prediction for 11 AM Friday (tomorrow). Click in the image to see rain amounts at different locations. 25.4 mm = 1 inch

    https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2018-10-12-18,...





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    [*] posted on 10-11-2018 at 10:50 AM


    Quote: Originally posted by Alm  
    Relax, Bob, this one is not meant for you.

    Eeb/NOAA have corrected the path a little to the South - after it hits the coast at Asuncion. The center is now close to Sta Rosalia (was at Pto S.Francisquito). But the rain is not centered in the eye of hurricane, it's more at the edges/tails of the path. BOLA and Mulege could still get some. Possibly 3-5 hours of heavy rain, with drizzle before and after. We shall see.


    Has the most recent "fix" upstream on the Rio Mulege ever been tested?
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