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Bajaboy
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Rising oceans in Del Mar and Baja
Did anyone else hear the recent story on NPR about rising sea levels? It centered around the city of Del Mar, Ca but had implications to all of Baja.
https://www.npr.org/2018/12/04/672285546/retreat-is-not-an-o...
Retreat' Is Not An Option As A California Beach Town Plans For Rising Seas
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December 4, 20185:02 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
Nathan Rott at NPR headquarters in Washington, D.C., September 27, 2018. (photo by Allison Shelley)
NATHAN ROTT
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The city of Del Mar, Calif., located about 20 miles north of downtown San Diego, has voted against a formal policy of "managed retreat" from rising
seas.
Art Wager/Getty Images
About 150 steps from John Imperato's Southern California home, pavement gives way to an ever-shrinking stretch of soft sand.
Imperato lives in Del Mar, a small, affluent town just north of San Diego. He spent his life savings to live here. He wanted to raise his son like he
grew up, withing walking distance of the sea.
Del Mar is a picturesque place; its name means "of the sea," in Spanish.
That's becoming increasingly true.
Del Mar is one of countless coastal communities in California and across the U.S. that is seeing the impacts of climate change and preparing for worse
to come.
By midcentury, tens of millions of U.S. homes and billions of dollars of property are likely to be destroyed or made unusable by increased flooding
from rising seas and storms, according to a recent climate report by the U.S. government.
The feel-good here is gone. I thought they were going to bury me here, but if someone offered [to buy my house], I'd take it. I'd walk away.
John Imperato, Del Mar resident
"Sea level rise and storm surge could completely erode two-thirds of southern California beaches by 2100," the report warns.
That leaves residents of seaside towns like Del Mar with an alarming choice: stay and fight those impacts, or turn and leave.
Del Mar has been having that discussion for years. The city is a national leader in that regard. But it also provides a good example of just how
difficult and precarious even planning for sea level rise can be.
"The feel-good here is gone," Imperato says, standing outside of his home. "I thought they were going to bury me here, but if someone offered [to buy
my house], I'd take it. I'd walk away."
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'When the sea walls go, we go'
In 2015, Del Mar created a committee, consisting primarily of residents, to help identify the city's biggest vulnerabilities to increased flooding and
to come up with a plan on how best to address them.
They got grants from the state's coastal commission and worked with paid consultants.
The findings were grim.
Del Mar's walkable beach — a huge draw for the town's 3 million annual visitors — could disappear by 2050.
Sea levels here are projected to rise 1 to 2 feet by 2050, and as much as 5 1/2 by 2100, according to scientific projections used by the city.
The homes in Imperato's low-lying neighborhood faced a double whammy.
Beach erosion and sea level rise are likely to increase flooding during high-tide events and storms, threatening to overwhelm a long line of private
sea walls that line the beach.
"When those sea walls go, we go," Imperato, who served on the committee, says.
Del Mar's affluent Beach Colony neighborhood, under the green on left, would be nearly inundated under extreme projections of sea level rise,
according to the city's planning documents.
City of Del Mar
Increased precipitation from storm events, another expected result of climate change, may also bring more river flooding. The mouth of the San
Dieguito River sits just north of Imperato's neighborhood.
Knowing the risks, a few years ago, the city moved into the next phase of planning: how to adapt.
There are three broad adaptation strategies communities should look at, according to guidance policies provided by the California Coastal Commission,
a state agency tasked with oversight of California's coasts.
The first is protection — the creation of of sea walls or other armoring to defend coastal developments.
The second is accommodation — modifying buildings or developments to accommodate increased flooding. That includes changing zoning or elevating
structures.
The final option is the one nobody wants — an option that homeowners like Imperato describe as "the kiss of death."
Retreat.
'Not feasible here in Del Mar'
Retreating from sea level rise can take different forms. It can mean changing zoning to limit construction in flood-prone areas. It can also mean
removing or relocating development from vulnerable areas, using buyout programs or transferring property rights.
Some communities in California are embracing the idea.
At first, Del Mar was looking at it, too.
The blowback, though, was almost immediate. Realtors' groups spoke out against the plan. Homeowners were hysterical.
"What we learned from our community is that even the mere discussion of managed retreat, in the minds of some, completely devalues their property,"
says Amanda Lee, Del Mar's senior city planner.
The concern was that if the city formalized a plan that included retreat, it would be harder for property owners to get loans or sell their land.
Foreign Investors Shrug Off Miami's Rising Sea Levels
BUSINESS
Foreign Investors Shrug Off Miami's Rising Sea Levels
Hearing those concerns, "we started crossing out managed retreat and replacing it with other words like 'not feasible here in Del Mar'," says Terry
Gaasterland, who chaired the city's Sea Level Rise Advisory Committee.
The city council even went as far as to pass a resolution banning future city councils from planning for retreat.
There were practical reasons for the decision, Gaasterland says. The median home value in Del Mar is about $2.5 million, according to the real estate
market app Zillow.
One oceanfront house in Imperato's neighborhood is listed for sale for $24 million.
"In Del Mar, market value of all the properties in the managed retreat zone is estimated at $1.5 billion," Gaasterland says. "Who's going to pay for
that? Certainly not the city of Del Mar."
Water is reaching sea walls more frequently during high tides and storm events, residents of Del Mar say.
City of Del Mar
Another problem is the topography of the area. There are bluffs to the north and south of Del Mar, making relocation of residents nearly impossible.
Instead, the town approved a plan that included strategies like sand replenishment for its beaches and dredging of the San Dieguito River to lessen
the chance of flooding.
That plan was sent to the state's coastal commission, where it's waiting for review.
The California Coastal Commission, for its part, isn't penalizing cities that don't embrace the idea of managed retreat. Madeline Cavalieri, a manager
with the commission, says there's no one-size-fits-all solution for dealing with sea level rise; different cities need to consider a combination of
different strategies.
The idea, though, is to prepare.
"Over the past however many years, people have thought, 'Well I'm purchasing a home, I'm buying a property, this property is going to be here
forever.' We now understand with sea level rise that there are going to be locations where we can no longer count on the fact that house is going to
be there in perpetuity," she says.
End of the line
Homeowners like Imperato are not denying that sea level rise is happening.
He and others in Del Mar will tell you that they've seen the beach shrink and the high tide creep ever higher. But for many, the more devastating
effects still seem far away.
"We're not worried about the actual hazard because you can accept Mother Nature, and that may happen a hundred years from now," Imperato says, "What
we're afraid of is the regulations that are going to affect us today or tomorrow."
Imperato, like many homeowners in Del Mar, was happy that the city said no to managed retreat, but he's still frustrated that it was considered in the
first place. He believes damage to property values has already been done and says he has told a realtor to "pocket list" his house.
"Pocket listing is you want to sell your house, but you don't want to put a sign up with everyone else because then it's a race to the bottom," he
says.
Dwight Worden, a city councilman who serves as Del Mar's mayor, is sympathetic to those concerns but says the city needed to consider managed retreat.
"If you pretend that you did a scientific study of risks and options in your community, but you didn't study retreat, your study has no credibility,"
he says. "It needs to be studied."
Worden agrees that in Del Mar, managed retreat does not make sense. He doesn't believe it's feasible. But he's also realistic about the challenge sea
level rise presents.
"At some point you're left with two options. You either organize a retreat, or you do what's called evacuation and you call FEMA because you're
flooded out," he says. "We realize that's the end of the line. But we want to try Plan A. And if Plan A doesn't work, we think there may be a Plan B.
We want to do everything else we can first."
In other words, he says, the city would rather hold off the water as long as it can.
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David K
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How about some good news, instead?
All predictions... as they have for years.
My old street (Sandy Lane 1957-1964) is still the same distance above sea level. El Niño surges did come through homes there in the late 70s, once.
If the sea was higher, then why has this not happened frequently?
They added boulders to counter the beach erosion and protect from waves during storms. The homes and street they are on are not higher. The sand moves
but the normal sea level is unchanged as far as affecting homeowners.
From your paste above:
"Sea levels here are projected to rise..."
"Sea level rise and storm surge could completely..."
"...could disappear by 2050."
Lions and Tigers and Bears, oh my! The moon could crash into the earth, too!
In thousands of years, the sea level will no doubt be different, it was different thousands of years or more before (I can show you petrified sea
shells at 500 feet above sea level).
The point is, why scare little kids (or gullible adults) with these predictions of things that have yet to happen? It is a natural change. You have to
be kidding yourself if you think Man is more powerful than Nature. No amount of punishing (taxing) people or corporations will change the sea from
rising, whenever it does enough to actually force people off their beachfront properties. Banks will no longer loan money to buy beachfront properties
if the sea was getting higher (more than the length of a cigarette or two).
Happy Festivus!
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sancho
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Not sure of the actual sea level rise can be measured YET,
but storm surge, triggered naturally or by other, has taken 10'
vertical of sand, decades old beach palms here in OC. Miami has
plans of seawalls. Don't understand the science deniers
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David K
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Quote: Originally posted by sancho  | Not sure of the actual sea level rise can be measured YET,
but storm surge, triggered naturally or by other, has taken 10'
vertical of sand, decades old beach palms here in OC. Miami has
plans of seawalls. Don't understand the science deniers
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Great point! Instead of calling what has been happening "sea level rise", call it what it is, beach erosion. Storms, coupled with the lack of new sand
coming down rivers, or pushing up from offshore, are to blame.
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PamelaP
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Mood: Better in Baja! With wine of course!
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Erosion! That is science, water is powerful. Our Earth is cyclical, including our climate. Facts can be skewed depending on the author and the data
used.
She (mother Earth) blinded me with science! 
Is there wine?
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bajabuddha
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Don't even try. 
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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DaliDali
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For centuries upon centuries...….the Sea has been clawing at cliffs, beaches or anything else in it's way.
Now that is a FACT.
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Bajaboy
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NASA can land a rover on Mars and it's cheered.
NASA says sea level is rising and somehow they don't know what they are talking about
https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/125/infographic-s...
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DaliDali
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The "rock", known as earth, has been around for <4.5> billion years.
How have scientists been able to determine that say....400 million years ago, that rock may have went through many cooling and warming cycles, as a
natural part of what a spinning rock does in the atmosphere, during the previous billion years?
Or for discussion only, fast forward to 200 million years ago, how have scientists been able to determine the previous million years did not have
natural warming and cooling cycles?
In the early 20th century, scientists had refined the process of radiometric elements, to determine the age of rocks and other substrate to within 50
million years of age and made that call of <5 billion> year old rock.
Were scientific instruments available in the 1930's (early 20th century) that precluded the possibly that the rock was not going through a natural
cooling/heating cycle for any it's previous 5 billion years?
Everyone is keen to the ice ages and boiling cauldrons of molten rock...volcanos spewing molten lava...
Are there scientific instruments today that make the call, with certainty, that the rock never had a cooling/heating cycle, as a natural cycle of
rocks spinning around in space?
Who made the call that in the entire life of the rock, it never saw a cooling/heating cycle and by what means did they make that call?
Launching a rocket is about thrust, resistance, guidance, distance and re-entry forces....well beyond my pay grade to be certain
Determining the goings of a rock in space over the last 4-5 billion years ago is quite another agreed?
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mtgoat666
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50% of people have IQs below average. Fact!
If you don’t believe in global warming you should go buy a home in the low area of Del Mar! If you don’t believe in sea level rising, Why don’t
you get a 30 year mortgage on a home on sandy lane? It would be a smart investment!
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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MrBillM
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The Far-Right and what's Right
I don't KNOW why (or whether) and to what extent the weather and climate is being affected respective to the doings of mankind, BUT these repetitious
ongoing exchanges bring to mind a recurring question:
Why is it that so many out on the fringes so quickly dismiss scientific theories and conclusions while embracing with conviction myriad lunatic
conspiracy theories advanced by wacky kook plot peddlers ?
It seems that the same people who are convinced that (among other ideas) Alex Jones is a prophet, Hillary Clinton is a murderer and George
Bush (41) was a German agent are also convinced that NASA (along with a host of serious scientists) are part of a coordinated conspiracy to
deceive.
Why is it that the possibility of industrial and social activity having a long-term detrimental effect on climate is so threatening to the
core constituency of the MAGA masses ?
[Edited on 12-7-2018 by MrBillM]
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DaliDali
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Put me down as a skeptic...…
The rock earth is 5.5 billions years old....
Are scientists certain that this warming trend is not just another naturally occurring phenom of a rock spinning around in space.
And by what means or measurements have they made the call that indeed, this warming cycle now has never ever occurred before in the last 5.5 billion
years.
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wessongroup
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What Greenland's 'unprecedented' ice loss means for Earth
Rather difficult to obtain representative samples which could give empirical data related to historical temperature changes over 4-6 Billion years of
this planet.
However, using "ice core" sampling empirical evidence can be obtained to document changes in atmospheric conditions which have direct impact on the
planets water cycle and other substances associated with same.
One thing for sure, at this time, there is measurable melting of ice at both the north and south poles ... along with Greenlands ice sheets.
Will it continue to end point ... rather difficult to project with absolute certainty at this time.
Given what is being measured by scientists, does given concern to most reasonable people, including scientists ... add on the removal on air
emissions caps for coal ... I'd say we just may find out rather quickly
Was hoping to miss the event ... due to age ... however, at this time ... not to sure 
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/12/green...
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bonanza bucko
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so it's our fault the sea might rise in 82 years in 2100 and you want me to give up my truck and live in a tent while you tell me to feel bad about
that. Dream on jerk....check what's happening in France right now as the gumming tries to impose that stuff on the forks.
Then think this some more: What dug the Great Lakes? Glaciers! Where are they now? Melted! What caused that? "Global Warming! Whose fault was that?
Probably too many cave men barbecuing too many mastodons and too many sabre toothed tigers farting.
Yep.....I am a denier because I have a brain.
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JoeJustJoe
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Oh no, not another thread dominated by global warming deniers!
It's so funny to see some of these denier, views that flies in the face of science, where over 95% of the scientist agree global warming most recently
has been caused by man.
Did any of you even read the new US government report, that Trump, tried to hide, by sending it out during black Friday?
Of course Trump, denies the obvious, because short term, certain polluting industries, make money by rolling back environmental laws. At least Trump,
and polluting industries have a reason to deny global warming.......what's your excuse?
______________________________________
Dare to read it and open you mind ( link at the bottom)
Climate change will shrink US economy and kill thousands, government report warns
A new US government report delivers a dire warning about climate change and its devastating impacts, saying the economy could lose hundreds of
billions of dollars -- or, in the worst-case scenario, more than 10% of its GDP -- by the end of the century.
The federally mandated study was supposed to come out in December but was released by the Trump administration on Friday, at a time when many
Americans are on a long holiday weekend, distracted by family and shopping.
David Easterling, director of the Technical Support Unit at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, emphasized that there was "no
external interference in the report's development." He added that the climate change the Earth is experiencing is unlike any other.
"The global average temperature is much higher and is rising more rapidly than anything modern civilization has experienced, and this warming trend
can only be explained by human activities," Easterling said.
Coming from the US Global Change Research Program, a team of 13 federal agencies, the Fourth National Climate Assessment was put together with the
help of 1,000 people, including 300 leading scientists, roughly half from outside the government.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-...
here is the actual report:
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
[Edited on 12-7-2018 by JoeJustJoe]
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MrBillM
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Glaciers, Great Lakes and the Like
Perhaps one of the most specious arguments cited as proof by the MAGA Minions in their Climate battle is that of
LONG (millions of years) past cyclical natural phenomena.
Sounds good. PROVES nothing.
Given that those previous periods were subject to a wide variety of physical atmospheric and astronomical influences (many of which we still guess at)
AND that we have no comparable historical reference for mankind's current level of influences, those promoting the "natural" argument are merely
assuming as they accuse those with a differing view of doing the same.
Whatever the current period brings and for how long, it could be a continuation of natural phenomena, BUT it could likely be
(additionally) a result of increasing stress from man-made sources.
There is NO question that (air, land and sea) pollution has a negative effect on our environment. The debate should lie with how we
address all of that with remedial measures and at what cost.
The MAGA masses seem to think ignoring the problems will somehow miraculously allow nature (or God ?) to provide solutions.
Human experience has shown, though, that an ignored problem almost NEVER cures itself.
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Barry A.
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I am old, and have seen a few things. An anecdotal observation: In 1973-74 I was the Natl. Park Service's Chief Pilot at Cape Hatteras/Wright
Brothers/Cape Lookout Natl. Rec. Areas in N. Carolina. The Scientists were positive that the Outer Banks (barrier islands) would be essentially gone
within about 20 years due to beach-erosion and lack of sand being washed into the sea by man's control of natural rivers, etc. etc.... My ex-wife
lives near the Outer Banks today and says she can see practically no change to the barrier islands since we lived 300 feet (Bodie Island) from the
ocean on sand dunes back in '73/'74. Yes, things have changed a little, but nothing like the Scientists projected would happen "without a doubt".
Scientist do their best to tell us what will happen in the future, but it is not perfect science as we ALL know when predicting what the natural
forces will do down the line. I remain a skeptic (not a "denier") of these apocalyptic predictions about "climate change".
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BajaNaranja
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“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wise people so full of doubts.” -Bertrand
Russell
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bonanza bucko
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It is impossible for "95% of scientists" to agree about whether 2+2=4.
The minute that happened, if it did, "science" would not be science anymore.
Science requires skepticism and thus the 95% claim of the cool aide drinkers self destructs itself....and them.
Further the predictions for catastrophe in 80 or 100 years are also impossible....check the weather forecast for next week. All of those long range
forecasts are based upon computer models which suffer from garbage in and garbage out and from the high propensity of tweeters to safeguard their
status and meal tickets by tweaking some more.
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wessongroup
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Not aware of any predications of the cessation of "life" on the planet from Global Warming .... only an environment which may be changed ... The scope
and/or impact of this change is not fully understood nor actually predicated in real time .... at this time. Only models and/or math based
projections, which tends to have "gaps" due to the complexity of variables, known and unknown
It's called evolution IMO ... which would include "Adaptive Radiation" of living organisms on the planet.
Life is tough on this planet for living things ... always has been, because our environment is not static ... rather dynamic
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