BajaNomad
Not logged in [Login - Register]
Go To Bottom

Printable Version  
 Pages:  1    3  
Author: Subject: Rising oceans in Del Mar and Baja
wessongroup
Platinum Nomad
********


Avatar


Posts: 20964
Registered: 8-9-2009
Location: Mission Viejo
Member Is Offline

Mood: Suicide Hot line ... please hold

[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 02:38 AM


Back on point:

"possible to predict the long-term probability of a species persisting in a given habitat patch"

That "patch" is the planet ... get a clue

And those predictions are in fact based on "measurements" which are "numbers" of known variables, at this time.

IF some conclude the "measurements" are incorrect .. that is to be expected and discussed...... Item by item ... and typically is done 24/7 by someone around the planet

This is an excellent source online of "measurements" on many things, which may answer some questions.

https://www.pnas.org

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855

[Edited on 12-10-2018 by wessongroup]
View user's profile Visit user's homepage
Skipjack Joe
Select Nomad
*******




Posts: 7423
Registered: 7-12-2004
Location: Half Moon Bay
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 03:54 AM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  

If something hasn't happened yet, it isn't science... it's a prediction. Science is the observation and measurements of real things.


I can't believe you wrote this.

Where do you think your weather forecast comes from every day. They're predictions based upon mathematical models of data.

How do you know your spaceship will reach Mars without an understanding of Newton's Laws.

What good is cancer research without a prediction of it's efficacy? In fact, why would you even undergo therapy.

Science is ALL about prediction. That's it's greatest asset.
View user's profile
paranewbi
Senior Nomad
***




Posts: 599
Registered: 4-15-2011
Location: San diego
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 06:05 AM


Quote: Originally posted by Skipjack Joe  
Quote: Originally posted by David K  

If something hasn't happened yet, it isn't science... it's a prediction. Science is the observation and measurements of real things.


I can't believe you wrote this.

Where do you think your weather forecast comes from every day. They're predictions based upon mathematical models of data.

How do you know your spaceship will reach Mars without an understanding of Newton's Laws.

What good is cancer research without a prediction of it's efficacy? In fact, why would you even undergo therapy.

Science is ALL about prediction. That's it's greatest asset.


Are you sure?
mathematical models are not magical. They only display the evidence of reality in a communicative form, i.e. what exists is provable through the model.
Variables bend predictive probabilities based on math, resulting in the failure to predict the weather, unrecognized aberrations in space that project something that is not there. And of course, the success of cancer treatment based on a non-variable enviroment...which always exists in the human body and forces medicine to be labeled a 'practice'. And the efficacy of a treatment is based on models of 'trial' i.e. rats, pigs, monkeys, humans, etc.

Math does provide the evidence for argument...when used to back prediction.

[Edited on 12-10-2018 by paranewbi]
View user's profile
JoeJustJoe
Banned





Posts: 21048
Registered: 9-9-2010
Location: Occupied Aztlan
Member Is Offline

Mood: Mad as hell

[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 08:12 AM


What point and who are you talking to?

Planetary boundaries! Really Wesson?

That's like dropping an obscure big word, and hoping people will be impressed you know such a big word.

Right now we are trying to determine if global warming real or not, and if if it's real, who is most to blame, mother natural, or mankind. The only rule is you can't take both sides of the debate.


Quote: Originally posted by wessongroup  
Back on point:

"possible to predict the long-term probability of a species persisting in a given habitat patch"

That "patch" is the planet ... get a clue

And those predictions are in fact based on "measurements" which are "numbers" of known variables, at this time.

IF some conclude the "measurements" are incorrect .. that is to be expected and discussed...... Item by item ... and typically is done 24/7 by someone around the planet

This is an excellent source online of "measurements" on many things, which may answer some questions.

https://www.pnas.org

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855

[Edited on 12-10-2018 by wessongroup]


[Edited on 12-10-2018 by JoeJustJoe]







View user's profile
Skipjack Joe
Select Nomad
*******




Posts: 7423
Registered: 7-12-2004
Location: Half Moon Bay
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 09:20 AM


Quote: Originally posted by paranewbi  
Quote: Originally posted by Skipjack Joe  
Quote: Originally posted by David K  

If something hasn't happened yet, it isn't science... it's a prediction. Science is the observation and measurements of real things.


I can't believe you wrote this.

Where do you think your weather forecast comes from every day. They're predictions based upon mathematical models of data.

How do you know your spaceship will reach Mars without an understanding of Newton's Laws.

What good is cancer research without a prediction of it's efficacy? In fact, why would you even undergo therapy.

Science is ALL about prediction. That's it's greatest asset.


Are you sure?
mathematical models are not magical. They only display the evidence of reality in a communicative form, i.e. what exists is provable through the model.
Variables bend predictive probabilities based on math, resulting in the failure to predict the weather, unrecognized aberrations in space that project something that is not there. And of course, the success of cancer treatment based on a non-variable enviroment...which always exists in the human body and forces medicine to be labeled a 'practice'. And the efficacy of a treatment is based on models of 'trial' i.e. rats, pigs, monkeys, humans, etc.

Math does provide the evidence for argument...when used to back prediction.

[Edited on 12-10-2018 by paranewbi]


The value of laws of physics as expressed in math models is not that they express a reality but they express reality under all circumstances and in all times, past future and present. The real value to mankind is that it predicts events.

Yes if the formula is wrong then it’s inaccurate but that has nothing to do with science. And it has still less to do with the statement that science is all about measuring current events and nothing to do with prediction. That’s lunacy.
View user's profile
bajaric
Nomad
**




Posts: 194
Registered: 2-2-2015
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 09:30 AM


Count me as full of doubts. The media's job is to sensationalize. The internet serves to recirculate whatever sensational issue of the day is currently in vogue until the population of mentally weak people soak it up and sensational news turns in to accepted popular thought. So, the guy that lives in Del Mar wants to sell his house because he believes the sea level is rising. Perhaps he does not have the mental capacity to look out the window and see that the sea level is, in fact, not rising. Hey, sell it to me! Meanwhile, people in Ocotillo get to stare at giant ugly wind turbines that kill the birds.

If you can trust the ice core data, the earth has seen spikes in CO2 levels several times over the last 450,000 years, with accompanying warming, which then reversed and transitioned to global ice ages, where the shoreline in Del Mar was a probably a half mile west of where it is now because the sea level was LOWER. Why? Because much of the surface water was locked up in mile thick glaciers from about the middle of California northward through Oregon, Canada, and beyond. The last ice age was only about 10,000 years ago, a relative blink of an eye in geological time. The low sea level allowed for migration of humans in to north America via a land bridge at the Bering Straight. Then, without any help from humans (unless you count the camp fires of stone age cave men) it started to warm up again and the glaciers melted, a process that continues today. In a short 10,000 years the human population exploded. So if I can be a bit contrarian, with tongue firmly in cheek, maybe we should all be driving big gas guzzler muscle cars from the 1970's, you know, heat things up, has worked out pretty good so far. Sign me up for a 1973 Oldsmobile Cutlass, with the 350..
View user's profile
JoeJustJoe
Banned





Posts: 21048
Registered: 9-9-2010
Location: Occupied Aztlan
Member Is Offline

Mood: Mad as hell

[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 09:58 AM


Whenever a global warming "denier" comes up with their opinions on why global warming is not real, or tries to blame some other force.

Instead of wasting your time with them, you can instead go to a site like this, that takes on their skeptic augments by popularity, that way you don't have to waste your time trying to set them straight.
_________________________________

1. Skeptic Argument:Climate's changed before"

What the Science Says:Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant force.
_______________________________
4. Skeptic Argument:There is no consensus"

What the Science Says:97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.
_____________________
6. Skeptic Argument:Models are unreliable"

What the Science Says: Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean.

read the rest here:


https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php

[Edited on 12-10-2018 by JoeJustJoe]







View user's profile
paranewbi
Senior Nomad
***




Posts: 599
Registered: 4-15-2011
Location: San diego
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 10:01 AM


Quote: Originally posted by Skipjack Joe  
Quote: Originally posted by paranewbi  
Quote: Originally posted by Skipjack Joe  
Quote: Originally posted by David K  

If something hasn't happened yet, it isn't science... it's a prediction. Science is the observation and measurements of real things.


I can't believe you wrote this.

Where do you think your weather forecast comes from every day. They're predictions based upon mathematical models of data.

How do you know your spaceship will reach Mars without an understanding of Newton's Laws.

What good is cancer research without a prediction of it's efficacy? In fact, why would you even undergo therapy.

Science is ALL about prediction. That's it's greatest asset.


Are you sure?
mathematical models are not magical. They only display the evidence of reality in a communicative form, i.e. what exists is provable through the model.
Variables bend predictive probabilities based on math, resulting in the failure to predict the weather, unrecognized aberrations in space that project something that is not there. And of course, the success of cancer treatment based on a non-variable enviroment...which always exists in the human body and forces medicine to be labeled a 'practice'. And the efficacy of a treatment is based on models of 'trial' i.e. rats, pigs, monkeys, humans, etc.

Math does provide the evidence for argument...when used to back prediction.

[Edited on 12-10-2018 by paranewbi]


The value of laws of physics as expressed in math models is not that they express a reality but they express reality under all circumstances and in all times, past future and present. The real value to mankind is that it predicts events.

Yes if the formula is wrong then it’s inaccurate but that has nothing to do with science. And it has still less to do with the statement that science is all about measuring current events and nothing to do with prediction. That’s lunacy.


It may be hard to swallow for some...but DK is actually spot on when you define science, google it.
You brought mathematical models into something such as weather to be used as a predictive model, but we know there is nothing certain about predicting the weather as proofed by observable evidence. Often our personal lives are altered due to faulty weather reports.

There is observable evidence (science) that seashells are present many thousands of feet above sea level, but that does nothing to determine that they will once again be in the ocean but tells us it is possible (prediction). Prudence would dictate we all move to an area higher than the seashells in the mountains. :O
View user's profile
David K
Honored Nomad
*********


Avatar


Posts: 56409
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline

Mood: Have Baja Fever

[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 10:09 AM


Skipjack Joe, weather forecasts are often more wrong than right, and we are talking just a few days away. That some want to believe they can predict what will happen with the weather in 50 years is hilarious, is it not?

I only ask people to think about what you are told by "climate experts" and not just fall for every word that comes out of their mouths.
Nature will do what it wants and we have no control over Nature. We do have control over ourselves and will adapt if we are to survive.




"So Much Baja, So Little Time..."

Watch Trail of Missions, Sept. 7, ABC TV World of X Games

Over 60 Baja Bound Travel Adventure articles: https://www.bajabound.com/bajaadventures/bajatravel/

Visit Viva Baja, to help you plan your next adventure: http://VivaBaja.com

My 2018 Maps: http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=88771
View user's profile Visit user's homepage
JoeJustJoe
Banned





Posts: 21048
Registered: 9-9-2010
Location: Occupied Aztlan
Member Is Offline

Mood: Mad as hell

[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 10:12 AM


Regarding Paranewbi weather argument above:

63. The Skeptic says: Scientists can't even predict weather"

What Science says: Weather and climate are different; climate predictions do not need weather detail.

See it works like a charm.

What you will notice from the "skeptic" crowd, is rarely do they provide links to back up their arguments, and when they do, it's usually from some hired gun, hired by Exxon, or some dubious site.










View user's profile
Skipjack Joe
Select Nomad
*******




Posts: 7423
Registered: 7-12-2004
Location: Half Moon Bay
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 11:51 AM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
Skipjack Joe, weather forecasts are often more wrong than right, and we are talking just a few days away. That some want to believe they can predict what will happen with the weather in 50 years is hilarious, is it not?

I only ask people to think about what you are told by "climate experts" and not just fall for every word that comes out of their mouths.
Nature will do what it wants and we have no control over Nature. We do have control over ourselves and will adapt if we are to survive.


“Nature” does NOT do what it wants.

To quote Einstein “God does not play dice”. What he meant is that there is no randomness in nature. “Nature” is not an entity. It’s a series of events that are all predictable by laws.

We have control over nature because we know the laws that govern it. Don’t talk about it as some unknowable mystical entity that is beyond control. Do you know that in the Middle Ages people believed that God had afflicted them with the plague and the only cure was a greater devotion to Him. They too didn’t understand their condition and ascribed powers to it. We supposedly have come a long way since then.

View user's profile
David K
Honored Nomad
*********


Avatar


Posts: 56409
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline

Mood: Have Baja Fever

[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 12:00 PM


Ok amigo ;)



"So Much Baja, So Little Time..."

Watch Trail of Missions, Sept. 7, ABC TV World of X Games

Over 60 Baja Bound Travel Adventure articles: https://www.bajabound.com/bajaadventures/bajatravel/

Visit Viva Baja, to help you plan your next adventure: http://VivaBaja.com

My 2018 Maps: http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=88771
View user's profile Visit user's homepage
Skipjack Joe
Select Nomad
*******




Posts: 7423
Registered: 7-12-2004
Location: Half Moon Bay
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-10-2018 at 01:16 PM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
Ok amigo ;)


Esta bien.
View user's profile
jajajaja
Newbie





Posts: 1
Registered: 1-1-2018
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-25-2018 at 08:13 PM


as someone who is in the ocean 3-5 times a week, surfing, and often swimming after his board lol I have noticed sea level rise around san diego.

I know 15 years is not a long time, yet one examples is in north county at terramar in carlsbad. The sea wall on the southern end near the stairs used to backwash on a 3 foot high tide, meaning you could surf terramar until around a 4 foot tide before the backwash became too much...

these days the water reaches the wall at a 1-1.5 foot tide and the backwash appears shortly after. if you surf the 'point' after a 2-3 foot tide you start noticing the backwash.

also at scripps pier. the sign at the bottom of the stairs that says scripps institution of oceanography used to be a sea wall around 6-8 feet high that was a challenge to put items up there.

now a days that the increasingly higher tides have washed more sand up against that wall, you you guessed it, lower height. now that sea wall is almost at waist or chest height.

i am curious how many climate change deniers spend their whole lives indoors not even interacting with the environment they claim is impervious to mans actions...



wake the eff up, your children sure are.



[Edited on 12-26-2018 by jajajaja]
View user's profile
David K
Honored Nomad
*********


Avatar


Posts: 56409
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline

Mood: Have Baja Fever

[*] posted on 12-26-2018 at 10:12 AM


Funny, but I often wonder the same about those who believe this sea level scare... do they ever go outside to the beach or a bay and see for themselves or do they just believe what they are told?

Sea level and beach erosion are two totally different things.

If the sea was higher, then it would be higher everywhere and not just in one place. The sand moves and you saw that. The bottom of the pier is still the same distance to the surface of the ocean at high tide at the same phase of the moon as it was 50 years ago. Every so often, there are events that bring the ocean higher like a storm-driven El Niño or supermoon tide or storm surge fro air pressure changes. But for most of the 365 days of each year, the sea level is where it was for all of our lives, our parents lives, and so on.

I am not denying it is changing (climate and sea level) but it changes over hundreds or thousands of years and has without man to blame over and over for all time. I lived right on the beach in Del Mar from 1957 to 1964 and the street is no closer to high tide now then it was then. The beach has changed (erosion) but the ocean is still at the same level.

You will know when the ocean really has risen because boat launch ramps will be useless if they are underwater, streets such as Sandy Lane in Del Mar (and the homes on it) will be flooded, etc. I think it will be a few generations from now before that happens and there is nothing man can do other than to move inland and higher up.




"So Much Baja, So Little Time..."

Watch Trail of Missions, Sept. 7, ABC TV World of X Games

Over 60 Baja Bound Travel Adventure articles: https://www.bajabound.com/bajaadventures/bajatravel/

Visit Viva Baja, to help you plan your next adventure: http://VivaBaja.com

My 2018 Maps: http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=88771
View user's profile Visit user's homepage
mtgoat666
Platinum Nomad
********




Posts: 12091
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline

Mood: Indivisible, resisting fascists in orange hair!

[*] posted on 12-26-2018 at 10:21 AM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
... there is nothing man can do other than to move inland and higher up.


You forgot a couple options:
Stick your fingers in your ears, Deny and ignore (I.e. what you are doing now)
Step up, be a man, find a solution, and act (what responsible people do)




Make America Decent Again
View user's profile
Bubba
Senior Nomad
***




Posts: 936
Registered: 2-17-2009
Location: Pismo Beach, Ca.
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-26-2018 at 10:32 AM


You forgot a couple options:
Stick your fingers in your ears, Deny and ignore (I.e. what you are doing now)
Step up, be a man, find a solution, and act (what responsible people do)[/rquote]

That right there is funny, I don't care who you are.




Making America Great Again
View user's profile
David K
Honored Nomad
*********


Avatar


Posts: 56409
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline

Mood: Have Baja Fever

[*] posted on 12-26-2018 at 10:42 AM


I am not denying things in Nature change. I am denying what you think, that man has the power of God to change Nature's natural course.



"So Much Baja, So Little Time..."

Watch Trail of Missions, Sept. 7, ABC TV World of X Games

Over 60 Baja Bound Travel Adventure articles: https://www.bajabound.com/bajaadventures/bajatravel/

Visit Viva Baja, to help you plan your next adventure: http://VivaBaja.com

My 2018 Maps: http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=88771
View user's profile Visit user's homepage
elgatoloco
Elite Nomad
******




Posts: 3909
Registered: 11-19-2002
Location: Yes
Member Is Offline


[*] posted on 12-26-2018 at 11:09 AM


god is in charge
end of argument
discussion closed
moderator please delete this thread asap
gracias




"Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference" - Me
View user's profile
motoged
Elite Nomad
******


Avatar


Posts: 5499
Registered: 7-31-2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
Member Is Offline

Mood: Gettin' Better

[*] posted on 12-26-2018 at 11:24 AM


The magical thinking of "god/God" might only work if such a notion truly existed....in the meantime, waiting for realistic and practical solutions is an opportunity for humans to use their own resources and power to not damage the planet at the going rate.

Pray for what you want....work for what you need...




Don't believe everything you think....
View user's profile
 Pages:  1    3  

  Go To Top

 






All Content Copyright � 1997- Q87 International; All Rights Reserved.
Powered by XMB; XMB Forum Software © 2001-2014 The XMB Group�






"If it were lush and rich, one could understand the pull, but it is fierce and hostile and sullen. The stone mountains pile up to the sky and there is little fresh water. But we know we must go back if we live, and we don't know why." - Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez

"People don't care how much you know, until they know how much you care." - Ivan R. Misner, Ph.D

"You can easily judge the character of others by how they treat those who they think can do nothing for them or to them." - Malcolm Forbes

"Let others lead small lives, but not you. Let others argue over small things, but not you. Let others cry over small hurts, but not you. Let others leave their future in someone else's hands, but not you." - Jim Rohn







Thank you to Baja Bound Mexico Insurance Services for your long-term support of the BajaNomad.com Forums site.







Emergency Baja Contacts Include:

Desert Hawks; El Rosario-based ambulance transport; Emergency #: (616) 103-0262