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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9283
Registered: 10-3-2003
Member Is Online
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Quote: Originally posted by Bajazly  |
You keep threatening to do this, quit whining about it and just do it. I'm sure you have plenty of frequent flyer miles to take more than a few trips
around the country. |
Flying to Philadelphia next month.
[Edited on 5-22-2020 by JZ]
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
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Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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It Is What It IS !
"The Die has been cast", as they say.
Ease up on JZ. He's just being honest in that he doesn't care how many people die while we work towards that supposed "herd
immunity".
While I share an indifference to whatever occurs beyond MY control, I am not about to do (or promote) anything which I believe endangers unknown
others. Should I end up being infected, there are a few on my list that I would happily infect, but at this time they're all out of reach.
This "reopening" business will inexorably go forward at varying pace from place to place modified by local developments and political
considerations. The rate of [correctly reported] infections, hospitalizations and deaths will determine what course the relaxing of restrictions
takes.
People are going to do whatever they think is in THEIR best interests. In any situation, most (nearly all ?) are constrained in their behavior ONLY
by control and punishment.
The BEST (and only) thing that we can ALL do now is to maintain (to the extent possible) our own version of care and preparedness, including
"snitching out" ANYONE that we encounter violating what prudent rules are still in place at any given time. To the extent possible, don't allow the
"intimidation" of the scofflaws to create harmful situations. Worst case, be sure to have "Deadly Defense" handy where appropriate.
It may be YOUR life that you save.
"IF YOU SEE SOMETHING - SAY (report) SOMETHING !"
Well, I'm off to Poppet Flats to feed the critters, munch KFC and enjoy a beautiful warm day. Staying as far away from as
many people as possible.
Hope for the best. Expect the Worst and you can only be pleasantly surprised.
A - M - F
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Paco Facullo
Super Nomad
Posts: 1301
Registered: 1-21-2017
Location: Here now
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Mood: Abiding ..........
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In Tijuana, paramedics uncover a hidden death toll not captured in COVID-19 statistics
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-21/in-tij...
Since I've given up all hope, I feel much better
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chippy
Super Nomad
Posts: 1697
Registered: 2-2-2010
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Hey Paco that link makes me pay to see it. That aint gonna happen. Do you have another link?
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Paco Facullo
Super Nomad
Posts: 1301
Registered: 1-21-2017
Location: Here now
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Mood: Abiding ..........
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Not sure why I an getting access as I would NO WAY pay for the LA Times.
But here it is , cut and pasted
By KATE LINTHICUM, PATRICK J. MCDONNELL
MAY 21, 20207:33 PM
MEXICO CITY — Researchers who reviewed emergency response records in Tijuana have discovered scores of possible coronavirus deaths that never made
it into official statistics.
Over four weeks in April and May, paramedics encountered 329 people who died in their homes or in ambulances — more than twice the number that would
be expected based on data from recent years.
Over the same period, the Mexican government reported just eight official COVID-19 deaths in Tijuana that occurred outside hospitals.
The study — which was published online this week by researchers at UCLA, Mexico’s Red Cross and several other institutions and has not been
peer-reviewed — suggests the country may be missing large numbers of coronavirus victims in its official counts.
Most of the COVID-19 deaths tallied by officials occur in hospitals — whereas many people who die at home are buried without ever being tested for
the disease.
The question of how many people are dying of COVID-19 in Mexico has sparked a heated debate, with government critics complaining that the country
lacks a clear picture of a growing crisis.
In parts of the nation, hospitals are nearing capacity and funeral homes are struggling to keep up — anecdotal evidence that suggests the official
confirmed death toll of 6,510 is too low.
Government authorities have acknowledged that some deaths are not counted because they have not been confirmed by tests, which have been in short
supply.
In other countries, researchers have estimated the true toll by looking at deaths of all types during the pandemic and comparing that figure to the
totals during the same months in previous years.
That approach has not been possible in Mexico, because the country has a two-year lag time in publishing data on deaths.
The authors of the new study realized there was another data source that might begin to help them answer key questions.
The Tijuana Red Cross, which handles 99% of emergency calls in the industrial border city of 1.8 million, maintains detailed logs of its activity.
In mid-April, it saw a spike in the number of people who had died in their homes, according to Dr. Eva Tovar Hirashima, medical director for the
organization’s team of paramedics.
The rescuers also noticed an increase in patients with respiratory symptoms and with very low oxygen rates, she said.
Researchers began analyzing 911 data, basing their methodology on an academic study carried out in Italy’s Lombardy region during the coronavirus
outbreak there. That report found that at-home deaths had increased by 58% during the peak of the epidemic.
In Tijuana, the researchers looked at at-home deaths as well as those in ambulances between April 14 and May 11 and then compared this year to the
previous five years.
Excluding deaths that occurred in accidents, homicides or other forms of trauma, the average for those past years was 135 — or 95 fewer than in
2020.
When the researchers examined the data for the months of January and February, they saw no significant differences between 2020 and past years.
By mapping where most in-home deaths were occurring, researchers found that the rates of people dying at home highest in the city’s poorest
neighborhoods.
The authors of the study shared their data with Baja California health officials, who responded by opening a new clinic in Mariano Matamoros, a
neighborhood on the eastern edge of the city that saw the biggest increase in deaths compared with previous years. Primary care doctors at the clinic
have been instructed to look closely at blood oxygen levels, which are an important indicator of COVID-19.
It’s unclear to what degree the results of the Tijuana study can be applied to the rest of Mexico.
Data analyzed by The Times showed that 10% of the country’s confirmed COVID-19 deaths occurred outside a hospital. That figure in Tijuana during the
period of the study was just 3% — or 8 out of 262 officially confirmed deaths.
Still, Joseph Friedman, a medical student at UCLA who worked on the report, said he hopes the model will be expanded across Mexico and to other
countries with low levels of testing and poor data collection.
“There’s not great mortality data for Latin America, but all kinds of cities could be doing this analysis,” he said. “This is something that
could be done with EMS data any place that has electronic files.”
Brandon Brown, an epidemiologist at UC Riverside who was not involved in the study, said tracking emergency calls is one of the best techniques
available.
“With the lack of reliable surveillance data for COVID-19 deaths in many locations across the world, estimating mortality with EMS data may be the
best indicator we have right now for the excess deaths caused by the pandemic,” he said.
Tovar said Mexico needs rapid information about the true toll of COVID-19 to help officials make decisions about social distancing measures and how to
best deploy doctors and nurses.
“In a country with a health system this fragile, you have to know overall deaths,” she said.
The study did not try to determine the cause of the extra deaths. But Red Cross data made clear that Tijuana is in the grips of the pandemic.
During the study period, paramedics responded to 321 patients suffering respiratory symptoms, compared with the 86 that would be expected based on
previous years’ data. Blood oxygen levels for those patients averaged 78% this year, far worse than the 2019 average of 90%.
Many of the efforts to track COVID-19 deaths in Mexico have been anecdotal, and based on reviews of death certificates.
This week, a nonprofit anti-corruption group said it found 4,577 cases in Mexico City in which death certificates linked the coronavirus to fatalities
between March 18 and May 12. The analysis counted cases where the disease was not confirmed but was described as a probable or likely cause.
The official number of confirmed and suspected COVID-19 deaths in Mexico City during that period was 1,060 — less than a quarter of the cases cited
in the report.
The debate over data comes as the government begin a gradual reopening of the economy.
As of this week, municipalities where few or no coronavirus cases have been confirmed are allowed to resume commerce, school and other activities. And
several major industries, including auto manufacturing and mining, that have been declared essential have been given the green light to reopen.
Juan Carlos Mendez, EMS chief for the Tijuana Red Cross, said his teams have responded to fewer patients who died in their homes over the last week
compared with the weeks included in the study.
But that does not mean residents should ignore social distancing measures, he said. “We can’t let our guard down.”
Times staff writer Ryan Menezes in Los Angeles contributed to this report.
Since I've given up all hope, I feel much better
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chippy
Super Nomad
Posts: 1697
Registered: 2-2-2010
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Maybe cuz I´m down here? Thanks amigo.
[Edited on 5-22-2020 by chippy]
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17357
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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| Quote: Originally posted by chippy | You are saying its lame to be in costco but yet its cool to fly in a flying incubator? Its the enclosed areas that have proven to be covid
friendly.
[Edited on 5-22-2020 by chippy] |
risk of infection goes up with increasing duration of exposure.
a 4 hour flight seated next to a whole bunch of fat, sweaty, mouth-breathing strangers is riskier than 20 minute trip into costco.
the SADDEST thing about the pandemic is the costco samples disappeared. a trip to costco is just not the same without filling up on samples!
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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Skipjack Joe
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8084
Registered: 7-12-2004
Location: Bahia Asuncion
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| Quote: Originally posted by SFandH |
An infected person, sick or not, is a host and is infectious for some period of time. Perhaps an allergy causes them to sneeze, spraying the virus.
Perhaps they get a mild case of influenza or a common cold and cough. Who knows? They may inadvertently infect someone that will get seriously sick,
or worse.
The danger is in infected people who don't know they are infected and are out in public.
[Edited on 5-22-2020 by SFandH] |
I suspect that's a big reason for the 2nd wave that will likely come in the fall. Asymptomatic people will start to sneeze more often due to a variety
of ailments. It's almost June now and I can't remember hearing a sneeze in about a week. That's got to be a big factor in bringing down the covid
cases this summer.
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motoged
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6481
Registered: 7-31-2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
Member Is Offline
Mood: Gettin' Better
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| Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 |
.... SADDEST thing about the pandemic is the costco samples disappeared. a trip to costco is just not the same without filling up on samples!
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And....no hotdogs.... clearly a sign of the end of the universe.....
Don't believe everything you think....
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chippy
Super Nomad
Posts: 1697
Registered: 2-2-2010
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We got hot dogs para llevar in PV 2 weeks ago. So civilized!
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motoged
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6481
Registered: 7-31-2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
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Mood: Gettin' Better
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Would they deliver to Canada por una grande propina ?
Con cebollas fritas y moustasa, pero sin crema, por favor.
Don't believe everything you think....
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6929
Registered: 8-5-2011
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| Quote: Originally posted by Skipjack Joe | | Quote: Originally posted by SFandH |
An infected person, sick or not, is a host and is infectious for some period of time. Perhaps an allergy causes them to sneeze, spraying the virus.
Perhaps they get a mild case of influenza or a common cold and cough. Who knows? They may inadvertently infect someone that will get seriously sick,
or worse.
The danger is in infected people who don't know they are infected and are out in public.
[Edited on 5-22-2020 by SFandH] |
I suspect that's a big reason for the 2nd wave that will likely come in the fall. Asymptomatic people will start to sneeze more often due to a variety
of ailments. It's almost June now and I can't remember hearing a sneeze in about a week. That's got to be a big factor in bringing down the covid
cases this summer. |
I don't know if it is likely, but one scenario is that the infection rate stabilizes or even decreases over the summer, then there is another breakout
in the fall.
As outside air temperatures rise, people will spend more time outdoors, not crowded indoors. Also, higher temperatures will decrease how long the
virus survives outside the host, in the air and on surfaces. Over the summer people will stop wearing masks and forget about staying 6 feet apart.
Hey, things are back to normal.
Then cold weather will set in and people will move indoors with the windows closed, not wearing masks, not social distancing, and the virus will
reassert itself. Infections, sickness, and death will spike announcing the arrival of the second wave. This could happen right around election time.
This is exactly why influenza viruses are seasonal. Why should COVID-19 be any different?
[Edited on 5-22-2020 by SFandH]
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lilymc
Newbie
Posts: 3
Registered: 2-6-2020
Location: Baja California
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I'm sorry for not reading this entire 18 page thread, but can someone give me a quick summary on the current situation with the border?
Are Americans allowed to visit Mexico? I live here in Baja, and a friend is planning to come visit me soon.
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6929
Registered: 8-5-2011
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| Quote: Originally posted by lilymc | I'm sorry for not reading this entire 18 page thread, but can someone give me a quick summary on the current situation with the border?
Are Americans allowed to visit Mexico? I live here in Baja, and a friend is planning to come visit me soon. |
I drove across the border into TJ today. Business as usual, I didn't have to stop, got the green light, just drove in.
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sancho
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2524
Registered: 10-6-2004
Location: OC So Cal
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SFH, I assume you had some Immigration docs, do you
know if they are issuing fmm"s? Did you go to Ensenada, if
so was there a checkpoint near San Miguel to deter
casual tourists?
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Bajazly
Senior Nomad
Posts: 994
Registered: 6-4-2015
Location: Goodbye Cali and Hello San Felipe
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Mood: More Relaxed Everyday
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Today at the military check north of San Felipe they were turning all around who didn't have SF paperwork.
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6929
Registered: 8-5-2011
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| Quote: Originally posted by sancho | SFH, I assume you had some Immigration docs, do you
know if they are issuing fmm"s? Did you go to Ensenada, if
so was there a checkpoint near San Miguel to deter
casual tourists?
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I have a 180 day FMM I obtained before the virus outbreak. I don't know if they are issuing new ones. I did not go south of TJ.
Has anybody here obtained an FMM recently?
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
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Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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Regular Folks Need Not Worry.
Well, much, anyway.
Late afternoon yesterday, as I was putting the Town Car back in the garage, I hit the AM button and heard (on 920KGX) the Good News
(for others) from Limbaugh-Clone Joe Pags that "for Regular Americans, the COVID-19 mortality rates are
not 'so much dissimilar' than the yearly average for the flu".
He went on to point out that removing those in the target groups "susceptible" to infection made it clear that the "national crises" measures enacted
were a great overreaction.
Notwithstanding that removing the irregulars from BOTH categories would still leave a fairly significant difference in the
DEAD POOL and that the extraordinary restrictions (no doubt) reduced dramatically what those body counts would have been, the
overreaction argument ignores the fact that those Regular Americans circulating freely in the populace without symptoms or
few symptoms would have infected far more.
BUT, what do we Irregulars know ?
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9283
Registered: 10-3-2003
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"Today's update from the OHIO Covid-19 website:
70% of ALL DEATHS in the state of Ohio since the beginning of the pandemic due to covid-19 are in nursing homes or long-term care facilities. Add to
that the problems they've had in prisons and that essentially means that there's been about 500 deaths in the general population in the state of Ohio
since the beginning. This works out to be approximately .000045....or 4.5 deaths per 100k of the general population since the beginning of the
pandemic in the state of Ohio.
Yesterday the state of Pennsylvania also reported similar percentages of the deaths as Ohio...and they also added the facts that PA. has had more
deaths over the age of 100 than under the age of 45... and more deaths over the age of 95 than under the age of 60.
Additionally the CDC has just come out with the following:
Recently, the American CDC changed its guidelines with regard to touching contaminated surfaces. The danger is now considered comparable to other
low-risk transmission methods, including "from animals to people" and "from people to animals."
"It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose,
or possibly their eyes," the CDC guidelines now read. "This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more...”
Regarding concerns about transmission of the disease through food, the guidelines point out: "Currently, there is no evidence to support transmission
of COVID-19 associated with food.
Studies have also shown the virus only lives for approximately 1 minute in sunshine and does not live in pool water with chlorine etc. Essentially
there's very little chance of transmission outside, everything I've seen on any media outlet over the last two months shows no proven transmission of
Covid19 outside at all.
Seems to me football in the fall should not be an issue for any state as long as their governors start actually paying attention to the science &
the data instead of some Blue states run by loony liberal Governors saying they do, but in reality COMPLETEY IGNORING the actual science and data
because they're on a power trip that they don't want to give up."
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
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Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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I'm OK, You're OK, They're OK ....................
Well, OK, I'm not so sure about the rest of you. but W-T-F ?
We're back on track to standard, more or less.
At the Groceria ayer, the holiday Saturday crowd packed the place. The only difference was the masks. Which were down to about 50 percent.
Expect THAT usage to continue declining.
Oh, yeah, the TP stock was up to about 1/3. Interestingly, ALL of the more expensive selections. Still, NO cans of Roast Beef
Hash, though.
Out on 62, the traffic through town was a usual Holiday Heavy. Taking two signal cycles to get through many intersections.
Speaking of masses on the move, Friday up in Poppet Flats, the campground was on its way to capacity and there were crowds
"UNdistancing" all over the place.
Except the Adult Pool complex.
Since reopening the Adult pool a week back with a reduced capacity of 20 (from 90) for the main pool, 5 for the Jacuzzi and 5 for the little
rats, there hasn't been anything near that capacity whenever I've checked. Maybe those crowds are a bit uneasy about sharing that water ? The
Family center pool was scheduled for reopening last Friday, but they were still doing some maintenance. It will be interesting to see what
develops there.
Also interesting will be to see what the COVID numbers look like in 2-4 weeks.
This would be a good time to start one of those Dead Pools. Place some bets. This could be a profitable time. A great theme would
be .............. "You Bet THEIR Life !"
Catchy ?
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