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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4969
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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While the Fed reacted quickly to underwrite liquidity in markets, such as putting a bid in the high yield ETF market, it will struggle to stop many
medium and small businesses going bankrupt.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeosullivan/2020/05/01/market...
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...optimism looks misplaced if you think the crisis has also created serious solvency problems. A $5tn central bank prop can keep credit flowing. But
it cannot conjure up economic demand or turn bad loans into good credits. The risk stalking both markets and the Fed is that many companies are
quietly becoming insolvent, as their debts overwhelm their collapsing revenues.
As Paul Singer, founder of activist fund manager Elliott Management, wrote to clients recently: “Despite the massive stimulus moves around the world
and the unimaginably large new rounds of money printing, there is substantial uncertainty about the future viability of a large range of
businesses.”
There are already ominous signs. Companies such as Hertz, JC Penney and Chesapeake are reportedly considering bankruptcy. Yet their problems are only
the tip of an iceberg. Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley calculated before Covid-19 hit that 16 per cent of US companies were so-called “zombies”
that were barely able (or unable) to meet their debt service costs following a spree of risky corporate borrowing. Now their numbers are swelling, as
companies quietly slide into insolvency.
https://www.ft.com/content/cc31fe38-8adb-11ea-9dcb-fe6871f41...
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[Edited on 5-3-2020 by BajaNomad]
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4969
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Quote: Originally posted by BajaNomad  | btw... another concern - and I'm not expert enough to know how much of one it is for Mexico... is that the countries where vaccines are produced are
likely to maintain only domestic distribution at first.
There have been interviews with pharma company reps this week in the business news, and they're indicating intentions to manufacture in multiple
countries due to this reality.
I'm totally unaware of how this will impact Mexico, but is certainly something to consider in expectations going forward. |
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The first nation to develop a vaccine for Covid-19 could have an economic advantage as well as a tremendous public-health achievement. Doses will be
limited initially as suppliers ramp up, and a country will focus on inoculating most of its own population first. Even with extraordinary
international collaboration among multiple companies, it could be years before a vaccine is produced at a scale sufficient to help the entire world.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-needs-to-win-the-corona...
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/12544824204407111...
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When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9271
Registered: 10-3-2003
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US has said it's going balls to the wall on vaccine production once they identify possible good ones. Even before final results come in. Love this
aggressiveness.
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elgatoloco
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4323
Registered: 11-19-2002
Location: Yes
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Re: aggressive - better late then never. I guess.
MAGA
Making Attorneys Get Attorneys
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
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Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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People are Going to GET IT ?
Well, yeah, they are ................ IF one means continued COVID-19 infections.
IF, on the udder hand, one means that the great masses have learned a lesson and will act responsibly ................ "Yeah, Sure,
You Betcha".
Aside from the myriad TV and other news coverage showing a general lack of responsible distancing behavior, my own
campground experience over the past three days indicates common and expanding lack of responsibility with large groups congregating throughout the
park and children totally unrestrained.
Given how early we are into the developing "relaxation" mode, one can only conclude that more BAD times may well be coming. IF there are
successive waves, many are going under.
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JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9271
Registered: 10-3-2003
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| Quote: Originally posted by MrBillM | Well, yeah, they are ................ IF one means continued COVID-19 infections.
IF, on the udder hand, one means that the great masses have learned a lesson and will act responsibly ................ "Yeah, Sure,
You Betcha".
Aside from the myriad TV and other news coverage showing a general lack of responsible distancing behavior, my own
campground experience over the past three days indicates common and expanding lack of responsibility with large groups congregating throughout the
park and children totally unrestrained.
Given how early we are into the developing "relaxation" mode, one can only conclude that more BAD times may well be coming. IF there are
successive waves, many are going under. |
Good. We will get to herd immunity faster. Now is the time to take your vitamins, exercise, and lose a few LBs.
[Edited on 5-3-2020 by JZ]
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motoged
Elite Nomad
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Location: Kamloops, BC
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Mood: Gettin' Better
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Why do you keep repeating this? It is disinformation attempting to support your position that distancing is unnecessary. 
Don't believe everything you think....
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
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Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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Taking Care
Given my lifelong and increasing "contagion" paranoia, the CV-19 has merely enhanced my own precautions. In one respect, up at the
campground, it has had something of a beneficial effect. The more restrictive rules (which are often being blatantly ignored) give added weight to my
(sometimes frequent) reporting of rule violations.
The big downside is that the pool has been closed and will likely remain so. Calling the office, I had argued that, as in previous off-seasons, it
should be open with the heater OFF and crowds would not be a problem. For the last three winter/spring periods, I've enjoyed the pool without another
ever going in. That 65-68 degree water kept the herd away.
SO Yeah ................. eat, drink well. Get out and exercise while avoiding those herds. AND, of course, stay armed at ALL times
(as I do) ready to handle any in the herd who stray too close and become a threat.
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motoged
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6481
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Location: Kamloops, BC
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Yep, just shoot 'em if stink-eye doesn't keep 'em away 
Don't believe everything you think....
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Bajazly
Senior Nomad
Posts: 994
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Location: Goodbye Cali and Hello San Felipe
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Predictive Monitoring of COVID-19.
To be taken with a shaker of salt but interesting to see how it may all work out against the predictions.
https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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AKgringo
Elite Nomad
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It is interesting that China is one of the countries not listed!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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chippy
Super Nomad
Posts: 1697
Registered: 2-2-2010
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Very interesting. Thanks.
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elgatoloco
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4323
Registered: 11-19-2002
Location: Yes
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"Due to data limitations, not all countries are included in the analysis. It is strongly suggested to drop the earlier predictions for the countries
no longer included due to the rapid changes in real-world scenarios. The list of countries reported will also vary daily depending on data."
MAGA
Making Attorneys Get Attorneys
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pauldavidmena
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Posts: 1689
Registered: 5-23-2013
Location: Centerville, MA, USA
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Also interesting that Mexico's infection curve has not yet peaked. 
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Skipjack Joe
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8084
Registered: 7-12-2004
Location: Bahia Asuncion
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| Quote: Originally posted by BajaNomad | | Quote: Originally posted by BajaNomad | btw... another concern - and I'm not expert enough to know how much of one it is for Mexico... is that the countries where vaccines are produced are
likely to maintain only domestic distribution at first.
There have been interviews with pharma company reps this week in the business news, and they're indicating intentions to manufacture in multiple
countries due to this reality.
I'm totally unaware of how this will impact Mexico, but is certainly something to consider in expectations going forward. |
-------------------
The first nation to develop a vaccine for Covid-19 could have an economic advantage as well as a tremendous public-health achievement. Doses will be
limited initially as suppliers ramp up, and a country will focus on inoculating most of its own population first. Even with extraordinary
international collaboration among multiple companies, it could be years before a vaccine is produced at a scale sufficient to help the entire world.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-needs-to-win-the-corona...
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/12544824204407111...
------------------- |
I don't particularly like the attitude this article is professing. It's almost like the race to the moon, a prestige thing. Most of the ones I'm
seeing stress the global collaboration involved in getting the vaccine. "It's not a vaccine for a country or a region, but for the world". The Oxford
vaccine seems to be ahead of the rest. It's in human trials now.
I'm also unconvinced that the first country to get vaccinated will have a leg up on the rest of the world. There are countries now reestablishing
their economy, and without a vaccine. They're doing it by accurately monitoring all their citizens, knowing which can and which cannot.
There may not be a single vaccine which will be used. People could be vaccinated with better and better vaccines with time. At first, anything is
better than nothing. It may not be 100% effective. So there could be many players in many countries in vaccine usage. The whole article sounds
nationalistic, for a pandemic for gosh sakes.
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Skipjack Joe
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8084
Registered: 7-12-2004
Location: Bahia Asuncion
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Neither has the US, and that's puzzling. NY has peaked but other states are making up for those numbers.
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Skipjack Joe
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8084
Registered: 7-12-2004
Location: Bahia Asuncion
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An opinion piece on CNN:
"What Asian nations know about squashing Covid-19"
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/02/opinions/us-can-learn-from-asia-sachs/index.html
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Bajazly
Senior Nomad
Posts: 994
Registered: 6-4-2015
Location: Goodbye Cali and Hello San Felipe
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Mood: More Relaxed Everyday
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The difference in countries with competent leadership who look after the people and one who shuns science, packs the government with unqualified
cronies and demand absolute loyalty to Dear Leader despite facts otherwise.
Anybody else tired of winning yet?
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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apple
Nomad
Posts: 284
Registered: 11-4-2013
Location: SD
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So, what's the situation for crossing south these days? Are they preventing Americans from going down?
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64493
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Posted yesterday on Facebook, from Puertecitos area:
Cowpatty
Yesterday at 10:53 AM ·
Baja is closed for tourism.
There is a government mandated stay at home order-- shelter in place from March 30 - May 30.
Only essential businesses like grocery stores and gas stations are allowed to be open.
If anyone needs to go out, a mask and self-distancing of 6 feet is required.
The town of San Felipe and its beaches, north and south of town are closed. Only residents, including foreigners holding a permanent residency card,
are allowed to be in San Felipe.
Check points are randomly located to ensure this is enforced. This has nothing to do with political beliefs or anyone's opinion about the virus. We
should not avoid the government orders. Please respect the Mexican government's laws. The communities are working together to help get through this.
We all look forward to this being in the rear-view mirror, but for now, business is shut down! .
20 vehicles were turned around at the military checkpoint north of San Felipe yesterday.
[Edited on 5-4-2020 by David K]
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