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motoged
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The heading for this thread seems quite inaccurate now when we look at the horrible surge of Covid 19 in USA since "opening" attitudes and personal
behaviours took hold.
I certainly understand the frustration and impatience of folks unprepared for the "sacrifices" needed for the notion of "a greater good".
"Rugged individualism" would be better applied to those prepared to do the right thing, and NOT a rationalization for avoiding personal and community
well-being.
The gong show of how the USA is failing so radically to manage the health crisis can be attributed to a lack of governmental leadership , but the
leadership issue is not the real issue (and too easy a target). I think it runs deeper than that and a closer look at how "independence" and the John
Wayne mentality/values fall short of what holds a society together.
Consider the concept of inter-dependence when looking for ways to keep a society's fabric somewhat intact. It isn't a socialist concept as some here
have suggested.... but a notion basic to all spiritual doctrines and (I hate to say it) religions.
"Freedom" is not operationalized by doing whatever a person wants to do....but selfishness and self-centerdness are.
Don't believe everything you think....
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RFClark
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I wonder (Not!) if a large portion of the increases in cases, but generally not deaths is due in part to a lot more testing and the riots, looting,
arson, muggings, shootings and “largely peaceful protests? That said shootings and shooting deaths are way up in large cities
The different gatherings violent and largely peaceful alike have failed to follow reasonable guidelines and then there have been the Virus Parties!
Remember Darwin never runs out of “awards”!
On a slightly different point. About 110,000 Americans die each month from a variety of causes. I wonder what that number is for the last 4 months?
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John Harper
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Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  | | I wonder (Not!) if a large portion of the increases in cases, but generally not deaths is due in part to the opening of churches across the South,
people shunning mask requirements for political reasons, bar patrons ignoring social distancing, and other forms of selfish and anti-civil behavior
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I agree.
John
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BajaNomad
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| Quote: Originally posted by RFClark | | About 110,000 Americans die each month from a variety of causes. I wonder what that number is for the last 4 months? |
"Total predicted number of excess deaths since 2/1/2020 across the United States: 115,061 - 159,464"
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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MrBillM
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It's Always a GOOD Bet .............
............. To bet on the BAD.
Expect the worst from people. You'll never be disappointed and (occasionally) be pleasantly surprised.
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RFClark
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Interesting!
More interesting deaths have been well below predicted and have been falling for the last month! Currently a significantly fewer number of people are
dying each week then any other week on this chart!
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elgatoloco
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| Quote: Originally posted by John Harper | | Quote: Originally posted by RFClark | | I wonder (Not!) if a large portion of the increases in cases, but generally not deaths is due in part to the opening of churches across the South,
people shunning mask requirements for political reasons, bar patrons ignoring social distancing, and other forms of selfish and anti-civil behavior
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I agree.
John |
x2
MAGA
Making Attorneys Get Attorneys
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RFClark
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Goodness!
Those “Damned hard drinking red neck Christians!” are responsible for everything bad in the world! The “righteous” Looters, rioters,
arsonists, muggers and generally peaceful protesters who didn’t wear masks or social distance, being ‘immaculate of thought and purpose” carried
no disease! (Serious Irony Here!)
That said it doesn’t matter because the chart the “Head Nomad” posted clearly shows a big decrease in total deaths from all causes for at least
the last month!
Prior to that the same chart shows a big spike in deaths from when Cuomo (D-NY) and Murphy (D-NJ) sent all of those folks in the extended care
facilities to their deaths!
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BajaTed
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Arizona is the hottest spot in the world in more ways than one.
It will be 122 this weekend.
33% positivity rate for those tested, best in the world.
The experiment continues.......
Es Todo Bueno
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RFClark
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That’s getting close to herd immunity levels! And yet the death rate In AZ(1.83%) is a very small fraction of NY(8.1%) or NJ(8.79%) for example!
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SFandH
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| Quote: Originally posted by RFClark | | That’s getting close to herd immunity levels! And yet the death rate In AZ(1.83%) is a very small fraction of NY(8.1%) or NJ(8.79%) for example!
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33% is nowhere near herd immunity. Do you happen to know the number? For measles, it's 94%.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art...
I bet the number of deaths increases this month. It's a lagging indicator. Hospitalizations are going up in the outbreak states. ICUs are flooded in
AZ with very sick people.
https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-icu-91-percent-capacity-1-4...
[Edited on 7-9-2020 by SFandH]
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RFClark
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Yes and according to the CDC for COVID viruses it’s around 60%
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-achieving...
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SFandH
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Looks like it is debatable:
"According to Johns Hopkins, 70%-90% of the population (230-300 million Americans) needs to develop protective antibodies to COVID-19 to achieve herd
immunity.
Approximately 2.74 million Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus, over 130,000 of which have died (case fatality of 4.74%). By contrast,
the case fatality of the flu in the U.S. is roughly 0.1%.
Absent the existence of a COVID-19 vaccine, any reasonable extrapolation of the data -- even at half the current case fatality rate, means we will see
a seven-figure body count that exceeds 5 million deaths before we can attain herd immunity."
https://abcnews.go.com/US/vaccine-reach-herd-immunity-scient...
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JZ
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| Quote: Originally posted by SFandH |
Approximately 2.74 million Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus, over 130,000 of which have died (case fatality of 4.74%). By contrast,
the case fatality of the flu in the U.S. is roughly 0.1%.
Absent the existence of a COVID-19 vaccine, any reasonable extrapolation of the data -- even at half the current case fatality rate, means we will see
a seven-figure body count that exceeds 5 million deaths before we can attain herd immunity."
https://abcnews.go.com/US/vaccine-reach-herd-immunity-scient...
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This is faulty logic. Fatality rate is a fraction of what you posted.
3M have been confirmed by testing. That is the tip of the iceberg of the number of ppl who have had it.
"Our best estimate right now is that for every case that was reported, there actually were 10 other infections," CDC Director Dr Robert Redfield told
reporters on June 25th.
[Edited on 7-9-2020 by JZ]
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Bajazly
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| Quote: Originally posted by JZ |
3M have been confirmed by testing. That is the tip of the iceberg of the number of ppl who have had it.
"Our best estimate right now is that for every case that was reported, there actually were 10 other infections," CDC Director Dr Robert Redfield told
reporters on June 25th.
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So we have 10x infections as reported, 30m, less than 10% of the population, still a long way to go to cover the herd. If we do get to the 100k a day,
which is looking pretty likely, only 300 days till we all have had it or died... and the herd moves on.
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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BajaMama
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4 Months in, twice as many people have died from covid than a bad year of flu, so we know it is more deadly than flu. How deadly? Until excess
deaths are calculated when this is over we won't know. We are up to nearly 59K cases a day, at this rate we will have more data than we ever wanted.
And now aerosol transmission is suspected. What is crazy to me about this disease is how politicized our leadership has made it.
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BajaTed
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It goes beyond politics, American exceptionalism was explained to me when I was in Europe. We think were different and are exceptions to social norms
in other countries. Too many cowboy movies I guess.
Es Todo Bueno
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bajaric
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As a couple people have pointed out, on the far right side of the chart for weekly number of deaths it drops way off; fewer total deaths. To me this
indicates that the spike in deaths in April / May were people who would have died pretty soon anyway, and they checked out a couple months early.
Apparently the antibodies might disappear within a few months, so looks like having it once does not provide lifetime immunity. I think this will end
up being like the flue where an annual vaccination is required.
Of course, that will bring out the anti vaxxer crowd. Seems like there is a distrust of scientists, and authority in general, fueled by innumerable
conspiracy theories floating around the internet.
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JZ
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42% of all US Covid deaths are from nursing homes. Think about that. Fixing that alone will be a huge step in the right direction. NY and NJ let
Covid patients back in, killing many thousands.
The avg age of those inflected has plummeted, so the death rate will continue to drop.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nurs...
[Edited on 7-10-2020 by JZ]
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motoged
Elite Nomad
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| Quote: Originally posted by JZ |
The avg age of those inflected has pummeled, so the death rate will continue to drop.
[Edited on 7-9-2020 by JZ] |
Pummelled? Or plummeted?
Don't believe everything you think....
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