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SFandH
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BC and BCS COVID-19 Active Cases
I've started keeping a spreadsheet. I think it is self-explanatory.
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SFandH
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Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  | I appreciate the effort and initiative that you show in compiling this data, but what sort of confidence do you have in the reporting and testing?
For instance, it shows that Tijuana and Mulege have almost identical numbers, and I seriously doubt that is the case.
Edit; I assume the figures refer to named municipalities, not the individual communities.
[Edited on 6-30-2020 by AKgringo] |
Yeah, the absolute values of the numbers are questionable. I'm hoping the method used to arrive at the numbers is constant for each area, and if so
the trends that develop will be useful info.
I find web pages that state the number for the day with no time perspective useless. Determining trends in Baja is why I started the spreadsheet.
We'll see what happens from week to week.
[Edited on 7-6-2020 by SFandH]
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tiotomasbcs
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Very Humid over the weekend with the largest crowd of beachgoers I've seen here in Pescadero! Crowds in pm this week. Great place to be except for
this COVID thing. I jumped in a few times down away from access & people; put the hose over my head a few times back at home, too. Hard not to
...
[Edited on 7-1-2020 by tiotomasbcs]
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SFandH
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BC and BCS COVID-19 Active Cases
FWIW
BC - http://www.bajacalifornia.gob.mx/coronavirus
BCS - https://coronavirus.bcs.gob.mx/
[Edited on 7-7-2020 by SFandH]
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BajaNomad
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Threads Merged
7-5-2020 at 01:04 PM |
TedZark
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Can you give a reference link?
How is "active cases" defined? New cases, ongoing cases? How are those numbers related to utilization of hospital beds and/or deaths?
Just # of cases is a kind of nebulous.
Better metrics might help us evaluate the situation on the ground better.
Link for Spanish language info is fine.
Life is good...
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SFandH
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| Quote: Originally posted by TedZark | Can you give a reference link?
How is "active cases" defined? New cases, ongoing cases? How are those numbers related to utilization of hospital beds and/or deaths?
Just # of cases is a kind of nebulous.
Better metrics might help us evaluate the situation on the ground better.
Link for Spanish language info is fine. |
BC - http://www.bajacalifornia.gob.mx/coronavirus
BCS - https://coronavirus.bcs.gob.mx/
I just edited the post with the chart to include the links.
I don't know what they mean by "active cases".
I'm more interested in the trends for each area than I am in individual numbers.
If you can find another data source, I'll include it.
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John M
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SF and H
Good info to follow the trend in cases. Using the same sources at least would seem to give consistent data.
I find this useful. Keep up the updating please.
John M
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Bajazly
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All to be taken with a grain of salt of course. We were talking to a lady at a taco place yesterday and while the map says San Felipe has 122 cases, a
friend of hers who works in the government offices in Mexicali told her the real case count in SF is a little north of 500 and the funeral home guy
said there were more than 140 death. Seems high but who knows.
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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SFandH
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| Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo |
Baja Sur, with one fourth that population reports 898 cases. I think there would be more a lot more news about the south if the infection rate was
four times that of the north! |
It could be that BCS is counting "active cases" differently than BC. After all, I haven't been able to find a definition for "active cases".
But, I think it is valid to look at each column and see how the numbers are changing for a given location. For example, in the 10 days covered by the
data, Cabo has increased from 171 to 253, or, (253 - 171)/171 * 100 = 48%.
Be careful with the small numbers, because, for example, an increase from 2 to 3 is a 50% increase. Sort of meaningless though.
[Edited on 7-7-2020 by SFandH]
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BajaNomad
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| Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo |
More like a salt lick! I don't know what metric they use to define "active case", but but with 3.3 million people in Baja Norte, they report 792
total cases.
Baja Sur, with one fourth that population reports 898 cases. I think there would be more a lot more news about the south if the infection rate was
four times that of the north! |
I believe it's important to remember the greater perspective that while they are releasing the stats they have, that Mexico has been clear in
conveying they are *not* widely testing... on purpose.
http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=94512
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We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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MrBillM
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The Important Number is One.
And when that's up, the others don't matter.
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SFandH
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I'm keeping track of "active cases" (see post on 5 July) and have found a definition.
"active cases are those that are two weeks old and can be contagious today. This is known by laboratory tests of people who go to hospitals."
So the numbers I'm using are determined by testing hospital patients for the virus.
https://coronavirus.gob.mx/2020/04/30/conferencia-30-de-abri...
[Edited on 7-8-2020 by SFandH]
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ncampion
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All COVID statistics are highly inaccurate and suspect. Nothing can be rationally deduced from the data, garbage in, garbage out idea. Cases depends
totally on testing, deaths are also totally inaccurately reported everywhere in the world. We're all just being played on all this, sorry.
Living Large in Loreto. Off-grid and happy.
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TedZark
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I tend to agree.
It's most likely we won't REALLY know anything for 2-3 years. By then there will probably be some good analysis of reasonably-well collected data.
Most reporting will be spun one way or another. We'll have to pick something in the middle to try to get close to the "truth".
It's really just a crap shoot right now. But that's okay. That's how life works. Learn. Move on.
Life is good...
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SFandH
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BC - http://www.bajacalifornia.gob.mx/coronavirus
BCS - https://coronavirus.bcs.gob.mx/
"active cases are those that are two weeks old and can be contagious today. This is known by laboratory tests of people who go to hospitals."
https://coronavirus.gob.mx/2020/04/30/conferencia-30-de-abri...
So the numbers are determined by testing hospital patients for the virus.
[Edited on 7-10-2020 by SFandH]
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MrBillM
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The Covid Crap Shoot
As a member of that "especially" vulnerable (aged) group AND a really paranoid personality, I've gone to great lengths to minimize proximity and
contact.
BUT ............... Yesterday I drove up to Poppet Flats for a Critter Feed while my Trailer is in storage with my favorite spot
occupied. At the last minute, I threw a tent into the trunk with no expectation that the spot would be vacant and the tent needed to reserve the
site.
Which was VACANT. They'd left hours earlier. As I struggled solo with the tent and cursed once again that I hadn't bought a smaller one for the
purpose, a neighboring camper came over with two of his kids and offered assistance.
SO ............. I'm surrounded (in close proximity) with (3) unmasked younger persons, once of whom was sniffling (hopefully from allergies ?).
Got home. Told the wife that it would be truly ironic if a good deed from some very nice people ended up killing me.
Crap Shoot, indeed.
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SFandH
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| Quote: Originally posted by MrBillM | As a member of that "especially" vulnerable (aged) group AND a really paranoid personality, I've gone to great lengths to minimize proximity and
contact.
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Me too. I stay at home.
I'm wondering if the high, increasing numbers in hot places like La Paz, Mexicali, and Cabo are due in part to buttoned-up, air-conditioned buildings
using re-circulated cooled air.
[Edited on 7-10-2020 by SFandH]
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surabi
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| Quote: Originally posted by ncampion | | All COVID statistics are highly inaccurate and suspect. Nothing can be rationally deduced from the data, garbage in, garbage out idea. Cases depends
totally on testing, deaths are also totally inaccurately reported everywhere in the world. We're all just being played on all this, sorry.
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We aren't being"played". The data isn't accurate because there is no widespread testing, many are infected but asymptomatic and there is no
irrefutable confirmation that patients died of COVID or complications arising from it.
But the scientific and medical community aren't actively trying to bamboozle the public- that's just BS conspiracy theory. They are trying to slow the
infection rates and save lives.
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pacificobob
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there is a huge number of reasons why the numbers are highly inaccurate.
lots of leaders have reasons to promote misinformation. not the least and likely the greatest is der gropen fuhrer whose primary strategy is to
wish it away.
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SFandH
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BCS staying at level 5 due to the increase in infections and will not continue in the opening of activities.
https://www.bcsnoticias.mx/nuevamente-bcs-tendra-que-esperar...
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