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Alm
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Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  |
I'm wondering if the high, increasing numbers in hot places like La Paz, Mexicali, and Cabo are due in part to buttoned-up, air-conditioned buildings
using re-circulated cooled air.
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The risk of spread is higher indoors. And, generally, in places with higher population density. These towns fit the criteria.
But this definition of active cases is wrong. In Canada (and probably in the US?) active cases = confirmed cases minus recovered minus deceased. Or
was it Mex.gob definition?
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TedZark
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Thank you, SF&H for providing these updates. Very helpful.
Life is good...
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TMW
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| Quote: Originally posted by pacificobob | there is a huge number of reasons why the numbers are highly inaccurate.
lots of leaders have reasons to promote misinformation. not the least and likely the greatest is der gropen fuhrer whose primary strategy is to
wish it away. |
The leaders have nothing to do with it other than their opinion. Each state and territory reports to the CDC which puts out the numbers. Everyone that
showed signs of COVID19 and died is listed as dying from it. They may have had a heart attack but still listed as dying from COVID19. COVID19 may have
played a part in the heart attack who's to know and in any case it doesn't matter. The coroner or medical examiner is not going to do an autopsy on
everyone that dies that had COVID19 symptoms .
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SFandH
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| Quote: Originally posted by Alm | | Quote: Originally posted by SFandH |
I'm wondering if the high, increasing numbers in hot places like La Paz, Mexicali, and Cabo are due in part to buttoned-up, air-conditioned buildings
using re-circulated cooled air.
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The risk of spread is higher indoors. And, generally, in places with higher population density. These towns fit the criteria.
But this definition of active cases is wrong. In Canada (and probably in the US?) active cases = confirmed cases minus recovered minus deceased. Or
was it Mex.gob definition?
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The following definition for active cases comes from the included link.
"active cases are those that are two weeks old and can be contagious today. This is known by laboratory tests of people who go to hospitals."
https://coronavirus.gob.mx/2020/04/30/conferencia-30-de-abri...
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Alm
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In other words, it's a snapshot of daily new cases from the date 2 weeks ago. Since it doesn't say "minimo dos semanas" or "mas de dos semanas". They
presume 2 weeks until recovery or death. The real number of active cases on that day could be higher.
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Alm
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Actually, the real number of active cases by their definition will be (at least) 13 times higher. Because if confirmed cases that are exactly 14 days
old are active - not recovered and not dead yet - then so are cases that are 1-13 days old. It's nice to see the trend anyway.
[Edited on 7-12-2020 by Alm]
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SFandH
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| Quote: Originally posted by Alm | Actually, the real number of active cases by their definition will be (at least) 13 times higher. Because if confirmed cases that are exactly 14 days
old are active - not recovered and not dead yet - then so are cases that are 1-13 days old. It's nice to see the trend anyway.
[Edited on 7-12-2020 by Alm] |
And the exact definition could have gotten lost in the translation. I just look at the numbers for a given area. Increasing - bad, decreasing - good.
These are government numbers and it's the government that determines whether places are open or closed. It's a good bet the numbers and trends are a
consideration in making these decisions.
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pacsur
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https://themazatlanpost.com/2020/07/13/map-of-coronavirus-in...
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Alm
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| Quote: Originally posted by SFandH |
And the exact definition could have gotten lost in the translation. I just look at the numbers for a given area.
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Suggested definition is clear: "los casos activos son los que tienen dos semanas y hoy pueden ser contagiosos".
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Alm
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Generalization based on self-assessment? 
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TedZark
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... except for when you don't know that you don't know. How can you know that?
Life is good...
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Alm
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Was anybody able to open the link for BC http://www.bajacalifornia.gob.mx/coronavirus in the last few days? Neither my Firefox nor MS Edge can't.
BCS link works fine.
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SFandH
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Works for me. I'm using a Chrome browser.
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MrBillM
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Took Some Time, But ................
Opens in Firefox here.
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RFClark
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Works on Safari too! San Felipe no new cases and only one death!
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Alm
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Changed computer - nada. VPN - nada. Another VPN - finally, bajacalifornia.gob.mx opens. BCS link doesn't have these problems. Weird.
When you hover over some city on the interactive map, it shows confirmed, negative and suspected cases but not active. To see active cases for any
city, you have to choose the city from dropdown menu and click Filtrar.
Now that new (and active) cases are still coming, I find it easier to use https://coronavirus.gob.mx/datos/. Hover over BCS (for example), it shows the number for July 12 - today is July 14, yeah, well.
Click on BCS to see the curve of total confirmed cases.
Move slider all the way to the left to see the curve since March.
Hover over La Paz to see the number, click to see the curve.
Hover over the dates to see the numbers. From July 11 to 12 there were 6 new confirmed cases in BCS, 3 of them in La Paz.
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Bajazly
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BS squared! Believe what you want.
I know of 3 or 4 personally and I don't know that many people here yet.
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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RFClark
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Argue with the Mexicans! That’s what their website said today.
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SFandH
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BC - http://www.bajacalifornia.gob.mx/coronavirus
BCS - https://coronavirus.bcs.gob.mx/
"active cases are those that are two weeks old and can be contagious today. This is known by laboratory tests of people who go to hospitals."
https://coronavirus.gob.mx/2020/04/30/conferencia-30-de-abri...
So the numbers are determined by testing hospital patients for the virus.
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Bajazly
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Couldn't tell you for sure but probably because any signs of Cv 19 get shipped to Mexicali and are recorded there. No testing is being done in town
here.
A native San Felipian told me the other day there are more than 500 cases in town, probably meaning the serious ones are in Mexicali and the mild ones
are here at home, and the coroner told her there have been more than 120 deaths, YMMV.
Many reasons and ways to manipulate numbers.
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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BajaNomad
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Thread Split
7-15-2020 at 02:26 PM |
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