| Pages:
1
2
3 |
JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9260
Registered: 10-3-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
Some very good news: A new study from Stanford researcher sets Covid IFR at ~.15%
One of the world's most distinguished epidemiologists, John Ioannidis of Stanford, has reviewed seroprevalence studies from around the world and has
published a new peer-reviewed article that pegs the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) of Covid at roughly .15%.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554
|
|
|
BajaTed
Senior Nomad
Posts: 859
Registered: 5-2-2010
Location: Bajamar
Member Is Offline
|
|
Empirical personal observation from the weeds:
The original cemetery in our OC town has never been more active since I lived there. Newbies & recent people buried abound, new weekend parking
problems that never were.
I'm sure its just a coincidence.
2nd shot today, full 5G capabilities, my bandwidth is off the charts
Es Todo Bueno
|
|
|
JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9260
Registered: 10-3-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
Quote: Originally posted by lencho  |
That's puzzling; most of the statistics I've seen put it much higher, for example this source (chart of case fatality rates shown). What it shows is that things definitely are improving, but aren't nearly as
rosy as your numbers indicate.
Maybe Infection Fatality Rate and Case Fatality Rate are different?
|
CDC says on their website: "The true severity of a disease can be described by the Infection Fatality Ratio."
CFR doesn't measure all those who were infected and skews towards measuring those with the most severe symptoms.
The CDC breaks their IFR estimates down by age group:
"Infection fatality ratio (Estimated number of deaths per 1,000,000 infections)
0–17 years old: 6
18–49 years old: 150
50–64 years old: 1,800
65+ years old: 26,000"
[Edited on 4-7-2021 by JZ]
|
|
|
Purdyd
Nomad
Posts: 125
Registered: 10-21-2018
Member Is Offline
|
|
Considering that many countries with .15% of the entire population or more having died which would imply their entire population has caught covid,
Countries like the United States of America, and Mexico.
Which I think we can agree has not happened.
I think that .15% IFR is a bit optimistic.
John Ioannidis is a great critic of other research but his conclusions are just as shoddy as the research he critics.
For example his paper last year on IFR in Santa Clara county was widely panned.
https://undark.org/2020/04/24/john-ioannidis-covid-19-death-...
And his paper linked above which is mostly a critic of other papers bloody studies on infection, does a little hand wave at the end and estimates that
1.5 to 2 billion is the true world wide IFR. Which seems just as bad as the work he just critiqued.
Granted he does say there is a great deal of variation between regions and with the average age of the world population being around 30, it might be
expected that IFR for the world would be less than the older industrialized nations are experiencing.
[Edited on 4-7-2021 by Purdyd]
|
|
|
AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5815
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
Member Is Offline
Mood: Retireded
|
|
When possible, a look at the numbers of people showing up at the hospitals or morgues is a more useful indicator of risk. Here in Nevada County CA,
there is a website that tracks that, along with numbers of "cases" whether they are symptomatic or not.
There are two hospitals in Nevada County, and there are only two reported hospitalizations at this time. The dates of deaths is not tracked, but I
have been following this link, and there has only been one reported in over three weeks.
This is a retirement community, with many independent, and assisted living facilities, so it was hit hard early in the pandemic. Of a population of
100k, the median age is 49, with 28% of the county over 65!
Here is todays link if you are interested; https://mynevadacounty.com/2924/Coronavirus
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
|
|
|
JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9260
Registered: 10-3-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
| Quote: Originally posted by lencho |
So you're saying someone who tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 might not be included in CFR calculations?
That seems... weird. At what point then is someone considered "a case"? 
(Your "most severe symptoms" sounds like something you yourself made up. Was that actually stated by a credible source?) |
No, not saying that.
The point is a great deal of inflections are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So no test is done and they aren't factored into the CFR. Because
of this, the CFR isn't a true reflection of how deadly the virus is.
As the CDC says, "The true severity of a disease can be described by the Infection Fatality Ratio."
[Edited on 4-7-2021 by JZ]
|
|
|
JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9260
Registered: 10-3-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
They have done this in some smaller countries. I was reading about it yesterday.
|
|
|
Purdyd
Nomad
Posts: 125
Registered: 10-21-2018
Member Is Offline
|
|
The paper referenced is essentially a critique of antibody tests.
The author did his own in March 2020 but it was severely flawed from the way he selected the sample, Facebook volunteers, the test given, the sample
of positives, really low, and the method of extrapolating to the population at large since the sample population tended to be in a certain age and
socioeconomic group.
Now he is back poking fun at everyone else’s antibody test as revenge I guess.
I would not pay any attention to that .15% IFR number.
Stuff like this from people who should be smart enough is very frustrating.
Is it any wonder there is no trust in science?
|
|
|
JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9260
Registered: 10-3-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
| Quote: Originally posted by Purdyd | The paper referenced is essentially a critique of antibody tests.
The author did his own in March 2020 but it was severely flawed from the way he selected the sample, Facebook volunteers, the test given, the sample
of positives, really low, and the method of extrapolating to the population at large since the sample population tended to be in a certain age and
socioeconomic group.
Now he is back poking fun at everyone else’s antibody test as revenge I guess.
I would not pay any attention to that .15% IFR number.
Stuff like this from people who should be smart enough is very frustrating.
Is it any wonder there is no trust in science? |
Look at the IFR from the CDC that I posted above. That is straight off their website. It's way under .15 for 65 and under. You'd have to do some
math to find out what it is total, talking population by age group into account. It's probably close to .2xx% overall.
BTW, that doctor from Stanford is up on the WHO site with published studies. I believe the WHO put IFR at .22 last Fall. I'll try to find it.
What are you saying the IFR is?
[Edited on 4-7-2021 by JZ]
|
|
|
surabi
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3136
Registered: 5-6-2016
Member Is Offline
|
|
Very pertinent is the last sentence of the article :
"with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations.
So when countries like Australia, New Zealand and Thailand, which have succeeded in keeping their numbers low through strict public health measues are
factored in, that makes the stats look much better than they really are. Mexico has a COVID death rate of 10%.
And why do those who love to downplay the seriousness of this disease ignore the fact that death is not necessarily the only thing to consider as far
as the threat this disease poses.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/third-covid-survivors-suffer-neuro...
[Edited on 4-7-2021 by surabi]
|
|
|
JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9260
Registered: 10-3-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
| Quote: Originally posted by surabi | Very pertinent is the last sentence of the article :
"with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations.
So when countries like Australia, New Zealand and Thailand, which have succeeded in keeping their numbers low through strict public health measues are
factored in, that makes the stats look much better than they really are. Mexico has a COVID death rate of 10%.
And why do those who love to downplay the seriousness of this disease ignore the fact that death is not necessarily the only thing to consider as far
as the threat this disease poses.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/third-covid-survivors-suffer-neuro...
[Edited on 4-7-2021 by surabi] |
Give me a break: "Anxiety, at 17%, and mood disorders, at 14%, were the most common."
Do you know the amount of anxiety and mood disorders that have occurred in the millions of ppl who were forced to stop working from unnecessary lock
downs? Or the millions of children who should have been back in school in August but were held hostage while teachers unions used Covid as leverage
to get better benefits?
|
|
|
JZ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9260
Registered: 10-3-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
| Quote: Originally posted by surabi | Very pertinent is the last sentence of the article :
"with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations.
So when countries like Australia, New Zealand and Thailand, which have succeeded in keeping their numbers low through strict public health measues are
factored in, that makes the stats look much better than they really are. Mexico has a COVID death rate of 10%.
|
This is not correct. It is a logically flawed statement. Those countries controlling the spread has ZERO impact on the IRF calculation.
What that statement is saying is that countries with better healthcare systems will have a lower IFR than countries with poorer healthcare.
And no, Mexico does not have an IFR of 10%. They have a CFR of 9%.
[Edited on 4-7-2021 by JZ]
|
|
|
BigBearRider
Super Nomad
Posts: 1299
Registered: 4-30-2015
Location: Big Bear, Punta Chivato, and Cabo
Member Is Offline
Mood: 
|
|
Quack, quack!
|
|
|
pacificobob
Super Nomad
Posts: 2240
Registered: 4-23-2006
Member Is Offline
|
|
if it walks like a duck........
|
|
|
John Harper
Super Nomad
Posts: 2289
Registered: 3-9-2017
Location: SoCal
Member Is Offline
|
|
A horse's arse beating a dead horse.
At least gnukid and paranewbi seem to have recently stopped the proselytizing.
John
[Edited on 4-7-2021 by John Harper]
|
|
|
Purdyd
Nomad
Posts: 125
Registered: 10-21-2018
Member Is Offline
|
|
CDC lists IFR as follows.
9% for 65+
.6% for 50-64
Practically nothing for younger
Table 1 assume R0 2.5
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
I don’t know what happened to John Ioannidis but if you follow through this article you see that doing some simple math that an IFR of .17% would
mean that everyone in the United States already had covid.
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/what-the-heck-happened-to-j...
And if you read the paper you would have to agree with this statement
“ Indeed, I’ve never seen such an attack in a peer-reviewed journal article ever, and I’m not alone:”
This site has done a good job of predicting things and estimates true infections are 2.6 times confirmed.
https://covid19-projections.com/
Current CFR for United States is 1.8%
Divide by 2.6 IFR estimate .7%
That is a napkin estimate but I’ve seen similar numbers bandied about going all the way back to the first cruise ship where they tested everyone.
But one problem with some of those early studies is that everyone was not through dying.
Personally I’ve always figured 1% as the IFR because it is easy to multiply by 100.
So again I will state this type of paper out of John Ioannidis and his actions during the covid pandemic have given him and science a bad name.
Come on, his original estimate of covid death in the United States based on his serological study in March was 10,000
I can’t explain why seemingly rational and intelligent people do these things.
[Edited on 4-8-2021 by Purdyd]
|
|
|
motoged
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6481
Registered: 7-31-2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
Member Is Offline
Mood: Gettin' Better
|
|
I can't help but think that the third wave of infections with new variants will result in some re-evaluations of the stats collected so far.
What is the real end-game of those who are invested in minimizing the reality and seriousness of Covid and variant spreads ?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-variants-canada-covid-19-vaccine-third-wave-1.5978394
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-april8-2021-1.5979265
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-04-08-21/index.html
And will these folks accept vaccines while denying reality?
Just curious.
[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged]
[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged]
[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged]
[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged]
Don't believe everything you think....
|
|
|
del mar
Banned
Posts: 1057
Registered: 7-23-2016
Location: the cantina of course
Member Is Offline
Mood: lil' fuzzy
|
|
| Quote: Originally posted by motoged | I can't help but think that the third wave of infections with new variants will result in some re-evaluations of the stats collected so far.
What is the real end-game of those who are invested in minimizing the reality and seriousness of Covid and variant spreads ?
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1882906691980
And will these folks accept vaccines while denying reality?
Just curious.
[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged] |
somethings wrong with that link Ged?
|
|
|
mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17332
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Hot n spicy
|
|
| Quote: Originally posted by del mar | | Quote: Originally posted by motoged | I can't help but think that the third wave of infections with new variants will result in some re-evaluations of the stats collected so far.
What is the real end-game of those who are invested in minimizing the reality and seriousness of Covid and variant spreads ?
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1882906691980
And will these folks accept vaccines while denying reality?
Just curious.
[Edited on 4-8-2021 by motoged] |
somethings wrong with that link Ged? |
Lots of people will reject the vaccine. Many of these same people reject:
Warnings against smoking
Recommendations for or laws requiring motorcycle helmets
Recommendations for or laws requiring Seat belts in cars
Some people are just reckless, crazy or stupid
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
|
|
|
motoged
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6481
Registered: 7-31-2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
Member Is Offline
Mood: Gettin' Better
|
|
Link fixed:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-variants-canada-covid-19-vaccine-third-wave-1.5978394
Thanks 
Don't believe everything you think....
|
|
|
| Pages:
1
2
3 |
![[*]](images/xmbforum/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
