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Author: Subject: Security Situation in Baja
PaulW
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[*] posted on 5-26-2021 at 08:22 AM


Risk of crime or violence is the highest in the big cities. Traveling thru the big cities the path of least proximity of the dense city is the best plan. Same recommendation for driving in the US. Take a route that uses the outskirts of the big cities.
Once past the danger zone then the risk is substantially decrease to levels just like rural US.
Overall the risk of traffic incidents is higher than the risk of crime in a large city.
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bajatrailrider
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[*] posted on 5-26-2021 at 08:48 AM


Great advice
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[*] posted on 5-26-2021 at 10:20 AM


simple math
a city of 2 million will have a good number of thieves who will go after your stuff
hey, that's their "job"

in 10,000 pop Santa Rosalia there are still some bad guys who lust after your roof rack content
but hiding is more difficult and social pressure is high
running away is hard too - where to?

in 150 pop Agua Verde there might be a wannabe thief
but social pressure is even higher
plus who is gonna buy the backpack you stole?





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BajaBruno
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[*] posted on 5-26-2021 at 08:01 PM
Probability is low


These data are a few years old, but in 2016 31 million U.S. citizens visited Mexico and 75 were killed, which puts your probability of being a victim at 413,000 to 1 (considering all of Mexico--Baja is probably lower, though I have no data to support that).
That murder rate would be enviable in a lot of U.S. cities, which are often 40 times higher.
So, take the advice of the more reasonable people above and have a good time.
It's not a bad idea to carry an extra 5 gallons of gas if your vehicle can do that safely; pay in pesos rather than dollars, and get your pesos at a bank ATM (see posts here for the rip-off banks). Treat people with courtesy and respect and you will nearly always get that in return.
The trouble with the police (in my experience) has been in the towns rather than on the highway (which is patrol by the federal highway police). I don't pay bribes and I've never had a problem with that, but many people feel that paying 400 pesos is more comfortable than a polite statement about how corruption is illegal and yada yada yada. Cops in Mexico make about $400 a month with the expectation that they will make a decent wage from bribes. That's just the culture.




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[*] posted on 5-26-2021 at 09:10 PM


Quote: Originally posted by BajaBruno  
These data are a few years old, but in 2016 31 million U.S. citizens visited Mexico and 75 were killed, which puts your probability of being a victim at 413,000 to 1 (considering all of Mexico--Baja is probably lower, though I have no data to support that).
That murder rate would be enviable in a lot of U.S. cities, which are often 40 times higher.
So, take the advice of the more reasonable people above and have a good time.
It's not a bad idea to carry an extra 5 gallons of gas if your vehicle can do that safely; pay in pesos rather than dollars, and get your pesos at a bank ATM (see posts here for the rip-off banks). Treat people with courtesy and respect and you will nearly always get that in return.
The trouble with the police (in my experience) has been in the towns rather than on the highway (which is patrol by the federal highway police). I don't pay bribes and I've never had a problem with that, but many people feel that paying 400 pesos is more comfortable than a polite statement about how corruption is illegal and yada yada yada. Cops in Mexico make about $400 a month with the expectation that they will make a decent wage from bribes. That's just the culture.


Good post.




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[*] posted on 5-27-2021 at 01:56 AM


Most of the violence is between the narco people and not by them towards you. Drugs are everywhere in Baja, even in small towns like Asuncion. As a result burglaries do occur in the smaller towns and these are to support drug usage. We recently had a guy badly beaten by fellow drug dealers and it’s not the first time.
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[*] posted on 5-27-2021 at 07:47 AM


Quote: Originally posted by Bajaboy  
I am far more concerned getting shot north of the border than south of it. Follow your instincts, smile, and you should be fine.


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[*] posted on 5-27-2021 at 10:23 AM


Not too many daily mass shootings in Baja....





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[*] posted on 5-27-2021 at 10:35 AM


Quote: Originally posted by motoged  
Not too many daily mass shootings in Baja....



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[*] posted on 5-27-2021 at 10:56 AM


I have absolutely no fear of being shot or accosted in Baja but getting my place broken into while I am gone, that is another story.




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[*] posted on 5-27-2021 at 03:50 PM


Quote: Originally posted by BajaBruno  
These data are a few years old, but in 2016 31 million U.S. citizens visited Mexico and 75 were killed, which puts your probability of being a victim at 413,000 to 1 (considering all of Mexico--Baja is probably lower, though I have no data to support that).
That murder rate would be enviable in a lot of U.S. cities, which are often 40 times higher.
So, take the advice of the more reasonable people above and have a good time.
It's not a bad idea to carry an extra 5 gallons of gas if your vehicle can do that safely; pay in pesos rather than dollars, and get your pesos at a bank ATM (see posts here for the rip-off banks). Treat people with courtesy and respect and you will nearly always get that in return.
The trouble with the police (in my experience) has been in the towns rather than on the highway (which is patrol by the federal highway police). I don't pay bribes and I've never had a problem with that, but many people feel that paying 400 pesos is more comfortable than a polite statement about how corruption is illegal and yada yada yada. Cops in Mexico make about $400 a month with the expectation that they will make a decent wage from bribes. That's just the culture.



Just some simple statistics for comparison. Not necessarily a rating of safety. Since as others have pointed out, it depends on where you go and/or avoid and how you act.

More recent data shows much worse murder rate in Baja of 73 per 100,000 than quoted above.

https://www.borderreport.com/regions/california/baja-califor...

Murder rate in California is 4.5 per 100,000

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/california/ca.htm

So you are statistically 16 times more likely to be murdered in Baja than in California. (based on these cherry picked articles)
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[*] posted on 5-27-2021 at 06:38 PM


All good information above. Live life, you could get killed crossing the street for a gallon of milk in the US or Mexico! Be smart don't go looking for hookers or blow and you will be just fine. Really just pay attention, don't leave your common sense at home but you will find more wanting to help then hurt! Enjoy..
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[*] posted on 5-27-2021 at 08:47 PM


I think some of you are enamored with baja and are therefore blind to its flaws. Crime and violence is real, it is pervasive in both USA and Mexico cultures. But in Mexico it has been more extreme. Whole states in Mexico are too dangerous to safely travel for gringos. Cartel turf wars are raging in several baja cities. Mexico does not have strong police system, the police are underfunded and ineffective.
I too think you can travel reasonably safely in Mexico, but the fairy tale view of rural baja being safer than most of USA is just that, fairy tale nonsense.
Don’t sugar coat it. Admit it, and be honest.

Look at bahia de Los Angeles. Quite a few gringos brutally murdered in quaint rural baja… are you telling me that there are not social problems in BOLA? Why the murders?




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[*] posted on 5-28-2021 at 08:19 AM


Sr. Goat actually makes valid points...The main difference in crime is that the police are basically worthless...very few crimes actually solved.
People get ripped more by cops than robbers....Murder is a whole different subject. Most never solved.... everybody believes they are perfectly safe until something happens to them...I have owned homes in both Baja states, never assaulted but burgled several times......Still going though!!!




Mexico!! Where two can live as cheaply as one.....but it costs twice as much.....
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[*] posted on 5-28-2021 at 08:43 AM


In relation to thefts;
The only proven way to get the police motivated is to pay them directly.
Half up front, the other half when crime is solved. Although this is not 100% effective.

Justice through the "legal system" is non-existent.

No comment on violent crime, that's a whole other story.
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BajaBruno
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[*] posted on 5-28-2021 at 12:44 PM


Quote: Originally posted by landcruising  
Quote: Originally posted by BajaBruno  
These data are a few years old, but in 2016 31 million U.S. citizens visited Mexico and 75 were killed, which puts your probability of being a victim at 413,000 to 1 (considering all of Mexico--Baja is probably lower, though I have no data to support that).
That murder rate would be enviable in a lot of U.S. cities, which are often 40 times higher.



Just some simple statistics for comparison. Not necessarily a rating of safety. Since as others have pointed out, it depends on where you go and/or avoid and how you act.

More recent data shows much worse murder rate in Baja of 73 per 100,000 than quoted above.

https://www.borderreport.com/regions/california/baja-califor...

Murder rate in California is 4.5 per 100,000

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/california/ca.htm

So you are statistically 16 times more likely to be murdered in Baja than in California. (based on these cherry picked articles)


The data I quoted were of "U.S. citizens" killed in Mexico, not total deaths. The borderreport.com article you quoted also contains the caveat that, "The State Department goes on to say violence is largely limited to Tijuana’s outlying areas and not concentrated in tourist zones, and that criminals “do not tend to target U.S. citizens uninvolved in drug trafficking.” "

I am of the opinion that criminals, particularly cartel criminals, are terrified to kill a U.S. citizen for fear of the U.S. government. The Mormon killings in Sonora are a good example. Had those people been innocent Mexican farmers, I doubt there would have been any arrests. But, the U.S. put pressure on Mexico and suddenly several suspects were arrested. Were they really responsible or just expendable to the cartel? We will probably never know, but people did go to jail.




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[*] posted on 5-29-2021 at 03:29 AM


Goat,

Spend a night in South Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore, East St Louis, Oakland, Hunters Point, downtown LA, or Far Rockaway and get back to me on that safety thing! I’ll leave the Wege board plugged in!
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[*] posted on 5-29-2021 at 07:06 AM


Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  
Goat,

Spend a night in South Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore, East St Louis, Oakland, Hunters Point, downtown LA, or Far Rockaway and get back to me on that safety thing! I’ll leave the Wege board plugged in!


I often stay over nite in Oakland for business, and occasionally stay in downtown LA. Feel perfectly safe walking around at nite. What are you afraid of?




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[*] posted on 5-29-2021 at 05:14 PM


Quote: Originally posted by 4x4abc  
simple math
a city of 2 million will have a good number of thieves who will go after your stuff
hey, that's their "job"

in 10,000 pop Santa Rosalia there are still some bad guys who lust after your roof rack content
but hiding is more difficult and social pressure is high
running away is hard too - where to?

in 150 pop Agua Verde there might be a wannabe thief
but social pressure is even higher
plus who is gonna buy the backpack you stole?



Well, different to your post: My friends from Mulege, on the way to Europe. The flight in about 5 hours. Going to Balandra for a swim and kill those 5 hours. Car full of stuff. Suitcases. Complete photo equipment. Passports of course. Cash. etc.etc. Car perfectly locked.
The swim ,,, not even 20 minutes. Retunrning to the car ---- car completely empty. No break in, no signs of violence. Police was helpful spending some money, but somehow helpless w/ the case. How did it happen? According to a Police Specialist the bandidos have special keys. One size fits all. One for Chevy. One for Ford and so on. Where does the stolen stuff go? Within minutes there is a boat on the way to the mainland. From there to MX city there is a huge "black market" selling only stolen stuff. Police can`t do nothing about it as they have no evidence that the stuff is stolen. Of course for the Police: Nothing to find in Baja.
To sell stuff from Agua Verde you are asking. Not a problem. Most all of these "Casa de Empeño" are taking whatever they can. No question asked. Same inside the U.S.
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[*] posted on 5-29-2021 at 06:08 PM


Going to Balandra for a swim and kill those 5 hours

Sorry to hear that..........

Unfortunately Balandra and Tecolote have been effected by theft of vehicles some time now. Probably watching every move. I know of two armed robberies there in the last few years.

Frigin tweakers.







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