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Author: Subject: The palm tree is going two feet under water
RFClark
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[*] posted on 5-18-2022 at 10:51 AM


You mean like Liberal Arts degree as opposed to a technical degree!

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[*] posted on 5-18-2022 at 11:00 AM


Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  
You mean like Liberal Arts degree as opposed to a technical degree!



You don't understand what I meant?




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[*] posted on 5-18-2022 at 11:12 AM


If you mean that a movement that has an autistic teenager as a major spokesperson is operating on very little knowledge and is dangerous, yes I understand and agree!
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[*] posted on 5-18-2022 at 11:14 AM


No, I didn't mean that and I certainly didn't say anything to imply that.



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[*] posted on 5-18-2022 at 11:32 AM


SF&H

The problem is the Earth’s Climate is a very dynamic system that we currently don’t really understand and can't model! At the end of the day we think that it’s primarily driven by the sun, which we also can't model because we don’t understand it. It’s also driven by other cycles that we also don’t understand and can't model.

Most agree that we are effecting the system to some degree. When I was in college the then current theory was that a new ice age was coming! Probably not! You can track the rise in temperatures and CO2 against population growth! Until you really address the overpopulation of the planet you're not going to do much and putting a bunch of hypocrites in charge won’t change that!
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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 09:30 AM


Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  
caj13,

If you drive south from Palm Springs to San Felipe you can see evidence that sea level has been 20M higher in the past. There is also evidence that it has been 100+M lower in the past. Few dispute that! Additionally the land rises and falls in elevation over time, often over short time spans and by a number of feet! (Think Naples here!) These things have always occurred! Everything about the earth and its atmosphere has been radically different in the past!

The real issue is will putting the enviroleftists in charge solve any of this!

As a Conservative who has both solar and alt-fuel cars I see over reaching government as most of the problem and little of the solution!
Many of the dirtiest places on the planet are that way as a direct result of government failing to follow the rules that it tries to force on everyone except itself! (Think hypocrites only wearing masks when on camera or flying to environmental events in private jets here!)

The real problem is there are too many people! No one is going to touch that issue! All else is political theater!


Richard, of course sea level changes, always has, always will, . the channell Islands used to be one island used to be about 5 miles offshore - because the ice age tied up enough water to lower sea levels 300 feet. Thats why there were pygmy Mammoths on Catalina BTW - https://www.nps.gov/chis/learn/historyculture/pygmymammoth.h...
but thats a whole different story.

so when Davis starts talking about miniscule changes not making a difference - He of course is ignoring all of the geological, fossil and geographic evidence - but thats expected from someone who actually believes the world is flat . He also believes the earth is 6000 years old - so of course hes not understanding Rates of change - in his mind the earth was created in 6 days!

The difference is those things happened much more slowly - as I have told David, and others here REPEATEDLY - its not the change - It's the RATE of change that has been so drastically accelerated.

Once again I see all sorts of Nebulous claims about secret cabals and radical leftists trying to control you patriots. but - of course, no one here actually wants to point out specific instances.

Richard - the reason you have solar and alt Fuel cars - both saving you money - as well as contributing to solutions - is that those were "forced" onto people to try and deal with the issue of climate change.
so how did they force you Richard? did they show up at your door with guns and demand you purchase solar panels?

There are solutions Richard - and its science that has given us those solutions. There is no single overarching thing, its thousands and thousands of little changes, making things more efficient, changing energy sources, tweaking behavior, renewables, carbon capture - etc. guess what Richard - turns out all those things save YOU MONEY, and make the Planet healthier - so I'm not so sure why thats such an evil thing?

change isn't hard, unless you are unwilling to learn, and unwilling to apply your intellect for a bit of deductive reasoning and logical thought processes!



[Edited on 5-19-2022 by caj13]
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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 09:41 AM


Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  
SF&H

The problem is the Earth’s Climate is a very dynamic system that we currently don’t really understand and can't model! At the end of the day we think that it’s primarily driven by the sun, which we also can't model because we don’t understand it. It’s also driven by other cycles that we also don’t understand and can't model.

Most agree that we are effecting the system to some degree. When I was in college the then current theory was that a new ice age was coming! Probably not! You can track the rise in temperatures and CO2 against population growth! Until you really address the overpopulation of the planet you're not going to do much and putting a bunch of hypocrites in charge won’t change that!


Turns out you were probably right - back in the 1960's. But guess what - science keeps learning, advancing. technology gets better, Data sets get bigger and broader, and well - turns out the climate models we have are actually pretty good - and they are improving all the time.
just to refresh your memory - there was never any "current theory" in the 70's that a new ice age was coming. Look it up - do just a bit of research, turns out thats a bogus claim made by climate deniers. I provided links debunking that BS - here in this forum a couple years ago - so you really need to update you schtick!

And its not the Sun - Richard - Thats been well and truely debunked - I provided links for that as well- Look it up -

Population - you are partially right, but its not the populations directly, its the burning of fossil fuels, and release of chemicals into the atmosphere that are driving this rapid change. The good thing is - the solution is obvious - quit burning so much oil - switch to alternative fuels when we can - promote and speed up clean technologies that reduce our carbon footprints - there is a hell of alot we can do as individuals, as states , and as nations - the only question is - do we have the will to change? some like you , and David throw up your hands and say - It'd beyond ours understanding, and its beyond our control.

science says Bu$$pit to that - we know what's going on and why - we know how to deal with it.

I chose to be part of the solution Richard - you go back to sitting on the porch and yelling at the neighbor kids to get off your lawn!
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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 10:46 AM


Caj13,

I don’t know if you have a technical BG or not! I know that I do!

FYI sea level at the end of the last ice age was about 350’ lower then today! Before the last ice age it was about 30’ higher! None of which accounts for the changes in elevation of the land itself. The US east coast comes to mind here!

Anyone who believes that the sun isn’t the primary source of the earth’s weather is a fool! The best current theory on why there were cycles in our climate pre-humanity is changes in earth’s orbit and inclination caused by orbital resonances with the sun, moon and Jupiter! These changes affect earth’s amount of insolation!

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2948/milankovitch-orbital-cycl...

There were a number of accepted scientific theories in the 60’s taught in the LAUSD that were wrong some stupidly so! “Only birds fly so bats just glide” comes to mind!

Continental drift was a new and unaccepted theory! We are at the beginnings of a new Ice age being another. The solar nebula theory of planet formation was widely unaccepted leading to the belief that stars with planets were rare rather than common as dirt!

All were wrong, some glaringly so!

Accepted science is more often than not incomplete or just plain wrong!

My point is this putting people in charge who have repeatedly demonstrated that they won’t follow the rules that they claim are “science” and want to force on the rest of us is a bad idea especially when the “science” is agenda driven!

This is especially true when the rest of the earth’s billions won’t do the same things! I’ve been to China! What you see is Coal mining and Coal transport everywhere. India ditto! Want to calculate how much pollution a few billion people cooking over a organic fueled fire creates? Then there is the burn the old crop stubble approach to agriculture! That’s the population effect I spoke of! If those billions aren't onboard what we do won’t count!

Please note I’m not saying that a clean environment isn’t a good goal, it is! I’m doing more than most to help!

How many KW of solar panels do you have? Any alt-fuel transport?



[Edited on 5-19-2022 by RFClark]

[Edited on 5-19-2022 by RFClark]

[Edited on 5-19-2022 by RFClark]
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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 11:17 AM


It almost is just too obvious;
The one side choses to ignore the fact the sea level has not gotten any closer to the palm, in nearly 90 years (or more). Is it because it takes away the justification for all the climate crime they want to levy on the world (and fill their pockets)!?

Every time a climate prediction fails to happen, they can't admit they were wrong! They do have a new excuse, however... and a new (future) date.

Is living in fear or under stress so important to them?

The question is simple: Is the sea level higher now than in 1936? Answer no (and a raise the length of a cigarette doesn't count if the tide rises a hundred cigarette widths, every day). Just a one foot rise in sea level wound put the palm in the water every lunar high tide.

This is not just a quark (or fact) in Baja (or here in San Diego)... but around the world:



Sea Level.jpg - 51kB




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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 12:00 PM


David,

Accurate (less than 1mm) measurements of the mean sea level world wide have only been possible for about 30 years. GPS and satellite laser altimetry have only recently been available, of the two GPS is the more accurate by at least an order of magnitude! The paper cited below is from 2017.

https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1406751-potential-limitations-sa...

How fast the sea is rising and the causes depend on your politics. What is clear is the delta C (the change in the rate of change) is beyond the ability of the current generation of satellite laser altimeters to resolve! Example the melting of floating ice actually lowers sea level!

Ongoing GPS monitoring at thousands of locations will answer the question but will take years to collect enough data! The change numbers are just GIGO until land elevation changes, wind and air pressure changes are included in the results!
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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 12:50 PM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
It almost is just too obvious;
The one side choses to ignore the fact the sea level has not gotten any closer to the palm, in nearly 90 years (or more). Is it because it takes away the justification for all the climate crime they want to levy on the world (and fill their pockets)!?

Every time a climate prediction fails to happen, they can't admit they were wrong! They do have a new excuse, however... and a new (future) date.

Is living in fear or under stress so important to them?

The question is simple: Is the sea level higher now than in 1936? Answer no (and a raise the length of a cigarette doesn't count if the tide rises a hundred cigarette widths, every day). Just a one foot rise in sea level wound put the palm in the water every lunar high tide.

This is not just a quark (or fact) in Baja (or here in San Diego)... but around the world:



I am not 100% positive of the exact percentage of man's impact on global warming and the recent pandemic provided us with a mixed bag of evidence which both sides of this argument will try to use to help make their case.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3129/emission-reductions-from-...

I do believe we should treat this planet as stewards and not conquerors if you care in just the least little bit about the future we will leave for the generations to come. Continuing on the course we are on and plotting the most critical resources vs population growth shows that sufficient food and potable water along with perhaps even breathable oxygen could each become exponentially more valuable than oil, beverly hills real estate and gold all combined.

Too many today (I believe) solely focus on the levels of our seas when the receding land masses and underwater real estate will probably be the least of our worries.

However, I'll play along since it seems to be the only parameter anybody wants to argue over and interject that empirical measurements of tide levels over the decades are worth about as much as the 8 year old tire I recently pulled off my truck, without taking into account the tide's relative position in the annual tide cycles vs the annual mean tide levels (which also change over the decades), any geological activity, currents, sand deposits/erosion, etc.

Shorelines constantly change over time and the distance a palm tree is near its edge means literally nothing as an increasing sea level could simply carve away or bring additional sand with the tide cycles and an increasing or decreasing amount of the palm tree appear visible above the sand - or even appear to stay the same.

Your photos prove nothing.

If you want a more accurate indicator David, and wish to sway my opinion, bring out a surveyor and set a deep, graduated stake in concrete near the palm tree and measure the exact tide level relative to the marked height of some easily identifiable landmark onshore nearby. Then, continue to make those observations every hour over decades. That's a lot of work and expense to come up with anything that could even resemble something scientifically defensible but in the meantime we do have lots of evidence of increased coastal flooding over the last 70 years, something much easier to document and evaluate vs other contributing factors:

Coastal flooding increasing

Here in San Quintin, the Old Mill area now is usually completely under water during the January King Tide cycles, something the local old timers tell me only started happening here back in the early 80's.

Does that data definitely prove the sea levels are increasing? No.

And your other example is also a poor one and in fact, actually helps makes the opposite case for which you advocate. Blow that image up and look closer to count the rows of stone visible out of the water:



That really doesn't prove anything either but again, we are ignoring what I believe are the real problems ahead. We really should all be focusing on the growing shortages in food supplies and potable water, as not only are they essential for life but their scarcity also leads to further environmental degradation.

A catch-22 double whammy which will make all this arguing back and forth seem silly.

I doubt anyone here will be swayed from our personal beliefs on the issue as partisan politics seem to trump logic and common sense but know that future generations will indeed hold us accountable for our ignorance/negligence.

Now you can all go back to your political finger pointing and name calling...




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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 12:56 PM


The first photos of Sydney Harbour are meaningless. I just checked, there are 6 foot tides in that harbor. The photo at the right was obviously taken at low tide. You can see the tidal water line on the building. Who knows what the height of the tide was on the left photo.

Same goes with the palm tree photos. No reference whatsoever to the tidal conditions.


[Edited on 5-19-2022 by SFandH]




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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 12:57 PM


Scientist have been recording sea level at tide gages for hundreds of years, gages surveyed to elevation datums. Measurement of sea level change is based on records dating back hundreds of years

Photos are meaningless for recording sea level elevation.




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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 01:00 PM


Absolutely!



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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 01:12 PM


I have been trying to show / and get you all to think 'outside' of the tidal range change.

There is no crisis in sea level! There is, however, a crisis in Ukraine and a crisis in the White House!




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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 01:16 PM


This thread needs a recent photo of the palm tree.

Side note:
The other most iconic plant I've seen is the supposed oldest Saguro cactus around in a remote area by Quartzite AZ. It has 27 arms and is quite the sight to see. She is quite healthy looking too.






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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 01:21 PM


Quote: Originally posted by BajaTed  
This thread needs a recent photo of the palm tree.




Sept 2021:




Coyote Palm 9-21.jpg - 69kB




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[*] posted on 5-19-2022 at 05:26 PM


Goat & others,

https://www.ngs.noaa.gov/datums/faq.shtml

You might want to read about elevation datums and their pre-GPS accuracy (or lack there of) adjustments of as much as 9 meters were required for a variety of reasons but mostly because the ground moves a lot even over short time scales! The current location accuracy for an “A” location is +/- 5mm.

This is not to say that the sea isn’t rising. It is and it has risen about 350’ since the end of the last ice age! It is to say that it’s difficult to measure small annual changes over short periods prior to the last few decades!

Those old tide records often don't reflect the elevation and even the location of the gage over the course of it’s measurements which makes them unusable!
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[*] posted on 5-20-2022 at 08:29 AM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
Quote: Originally posted by BajaTed  
This thread needs a recent photo of the palm tree.




Sept 2021:




Thanks, definitely a special place







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[*] posted on 5-27-2022 at 02:15 PM


As a surfer, I'm laughing at the "doubters".
We're talking about beach sand or lack of.
From the sisters, to juanico, Conejo, pedritos, name a beach, they've all lost a mountain of beach sand.
Even the sand at second point scorpions is gone(get the kleenex).
This is happening around the globe.
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