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Author: Subject: The palm tree is going two feet under water
John Harper
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[*] posted on 8-18-2021 at 03:42 PM


Oh, I forgot the Manhattan Project. Government directed and funded innovation. What a blast.

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[*] posted on 8-18-2021 at 05:18 PM


so we invented all this cool stuff
measuring any surface of the planet by fractions of an inch with satellites
we have done that for a few decades now

then you guys come along and look (half drunk) at palm trees at the beach




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[*] posted on 8-18-2021 at 06:18 PM


Why do we think that what the climate is TODAY, is the "right" climate? What if plant and animal life, culture, technology, etc. will thrive in a warmer climate/temperatures? What if melting polar ice causes the ocean's salinity level to change, which will then change how humanity handles irrigation/drinking water, or increases certain species of species sustainability in the less salty ocean waters. Or maybe a cooler climate (remember that we have had concerns in the past 30-40 years of cooling along with the current concern around warming) will bring some changes that cause us some growth and benefit in various areas of our life.

Are we so self-centered as a race that we believe that the climate NOW is exactly what it should be, because, well... US!?!? Of course, our current climate COULD be the ideal climate for our planet. Or it could be that over the past few hundred or thousand years, we, as the human race, have adjusted to the "imperfect" climate that we've had... and a modification of that climate (warmer OR cooler) would be an overall benefit to humanity. Would we have to adjust? Sure. Would there be things that are negative? Sure.

The climate IS changing!! There's no disagreement there.
Is the change caused by humans? Most say yes!, some say No!.
What is the climate "supposed" to be? I don't know how to quantify the concept of what the climate "should be", in the scope of the impact to all of humanity.

I propose that us having to adjust our lives should not be the sole factor in our decisions around ANYTHING. Don't be selfish. (this statement can go to BOTH sides of this discussion)
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[*] posted on 8-18-2021 at 09:05 PM


Quote: Originally posted by aburruss  
Why do we think that what the climate is TODAY, is the "right" climate? What if plant and animal life, culture, technology, etc. will thrive in a warmer climate/temperatures? What if melting polar ice causes the ocean's salinity level to change, which will then change how humanity handles irrigation/drinking water, or increases certain species of species sustainability in the less salty ocean waters. Or maybe a cooler climate (remember that we have had concerns in the past 30-40 years of cooling along with the current concern around warming) will bring some changes that cause us some growth and benefit in various areas of our life.

Are we so self-centered as a race that we believe that the climate NOW is exactly what it should be, because, well... US!?!? Of course, our current climate COULD be the ideal climate for our planet. Or it could be that over the past few hundred or thousand years, we, as the human race, have adjusted to the "imperfect" climate that we've had... and a modification of that climate (warmer OR cooler) would be an overall benefit to humanity. Would we have to adjust? Sure. Would there be things that are negative? Sure.

The climate IS changing!! There's no disagreement there.
Is the change caused by humans? Most say yes!, some say No!.
What is the climate "supposed" to be? I don't know how to quantify the concept of what the climate "should be", in the scope of the impact to all of humanity.

I propose that us having to adjust our lives should not be the sole factor in our decisions around ANYTHING. Don't be selfish. (this statement can go to BOTH sides of this discussion)


Very good points! So far higher CO2 levels have created a huge growth in greenery, higher food production and slightly higher temps closer to the poles. When this all began millennia ago, large sections of the earth were barely habitable and now can be utilized by a growing population and grow food. We've adapted before and we will again.
My problem is with the apocalyptic prophets that are trying to alarm everyone into drastic reactions to be managed by them (for our own good of course) and the evidence so far is they have been wrong more than half the time and never did see the positives.

[Edited on 8-19-2021 by JDCanuck]
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BajaGringo
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 09:53 AM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
Quote: Originally posted by BajaMama  
Pics of a palm tree with the tide at different heights is not proof of climate change.

Climate change is real, but this wouldn't be considered evidence.



The wet sand is the high tide point... and for the 80+ years of photos, the palm tree is above high tide. The sea is not rising in any rate to cause fear and panic.

This is not just in Baja, either. I am now old enough to easily remember back over 50 years, where I have lived or camped on or near the shore: Del Mar, CA; all around Baja; Darwin, Australia... and when I look at these places on Google Earth... the sea is not higher. Only the sand has moved a bit.

Speaking of Australia:





This photo is simply an illusion and does not help your case amigo as they are simply two images taken from different distances, obvious when you compare difference in apparent block row heights between the two photos.

A much better indicator would be to simply count the number of rows of block visible out of the water below the window and a visual count reveals that there are just over 13 rows of block above the water line in the recent photo and a little over 14 rows of block out of the water from 140 years ago.

That equates to a difference of roughly 6-8 inches, based on what block size they used.

My point is that such comparative photos are of little value in making a case for either side without knowing the complete story like the tide levels when the photos were taken and any and all other relative data.



Global Warming Comparison.jpg - 82kB

[Edited on 8-19-2021 by BajaGringo]




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David K
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 10:22 AM


Sure, it was a meme on Facebook but addressed the truth about sea level. High tide is often several feet more than low tide.

In your area: Are the salt flats of San Quintín, that were worked for salt in the 1700s, underwater now, or still dry between highest tides? Surely, if the sea level was rising at an alarming rate, 250 years should have been enough to cover them all the time?

Believe what you want... but I know what I can see. I am not denying the sea level has changed over the years... Nothing is static. However, to scare children and fools into this "the world has only 12 years left" is just sad.

Life should be enjoyed, not feared.




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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 11:12 AM
Coal use reduction in NA


This might surprise a few people based on what the media has fed us about the last presidency. NA doing not bad, Europe better. Last year prior to Covid change in coal use.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-percentage-change-...
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 11:20 AM


The facts in Asia are somewhat different!

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/coal-prices-the-worlds-least...
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 11:29 AM
Increases in low carbon energy


Then there's this one. Rapid expansion in emerging markets power demands force expansion of not always the best power sources. Theres no excuse for Canada tho. We pay a lot of taxes supposedly directed for climate change
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-change-low-carbon-...

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-change-low-carbon-...

[Edited on 8-19-2021 by JDCanuck]
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surabi
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 11:31 AM


Quote: Originally posted by BajaMama  
Quote: Originally posted by JZ  
Climate change is being promoted just so countries can justify the expansion of government.

They are using it to wrestle control away from free enterprise.
When was the last time the government innovated on anything?

Hard pass.


[Edited on 8-18-2021 by JZ]


You're kidding, right? Do you just bypass all the evidence?


Yep, that's many peoples' MO on everything they disagree with. Ignore or deny the overwhelming evidence, instead find some BS they read online to support their opinion.
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 11:46 AM
This is how much sea level has risen in 20K years


Sea level has risen 350’ since the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago. Almost the hight of this rocket!

The climate has changed continually as well. 20,000 years ago the Sahara Desert was covered with trees and lakes!

You really can't blame humans for any of the first 19,700 years of these changes!

It’s unclear that short of reducing the world’s population by half any other measures will do more than slow the rate of change!

Putting people who don’t follow their own rules in charge won’t solve it either!

A18A0F78-4BD7-4C48-BBCF-FFAFD0E30FA0.jpeg - 234kB

[Edited on 8-19-2021 by RFClark]
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 11:57 AM


As a temporary solution to provide peaking power demands such as were needed in Texas last winter, Utilities are moving towards the lowest polluting Combined Cycle natural gas turbines. They handle short term power demands and efficiencies are very high on the lowest hydrocarbon output from fossil fuels.
A combined cycle plant could have total capital costs of $0.07 per kilowatt-hour to $0.08 cents per kilowatt-hour, if natural gas prices remain at $5 per MMBTU

Needed until we have time to expand the grids for wind and solar and install sufficient storage
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 12:14 PM


I am dismayed by the message being fed to my young grandchildren that the world is coming to an end by climate alarmists. Over the past 30 years I have seen massive shifts to reduce both energy usage by individuals and at the same time huge improvements by power utilities as they converted from primarily coal and oil to high efficiency natural gas, wind and solar power. Investors will no longer invest in coal or nuclear power as wind and solar are now far cheaper and offer a greater return. It takes time, but we are making fantastic headway.
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8-19-2021 at 01:55 PM
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 03:28 PM


It had never rained here before — until this week

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/19/weather/greenland-summit-rain...

Dk, don’t bother to read it, we know your mind is closed off, lost forever — you will surely not believe anything if not measured in palm trees…




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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 03:32 PM


Quote: Originally posted by JDCanuck  

A combined cycle plant could have total capital costs of $0.07 per kilowatt-hour to $0.08 cents per kilowatt-hour, if natural gas prices remain at $5 per MMBTU


Natural gas is a generating cost, not a capital cost.




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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 04:20 PM


Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666  
Quote: Originally posted by JDCanuck  

A combined cycle plant could have total capital costs of $0.07 per kilowatt-hour to $0.08 cents per kilowatt-hour, if natural gas prices remain at $5 per MMBTU


Natural gas is a generating cost, not a capital cost.


Mtgoat: that quote came out of here, long article if you are interested in them:
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/a-users-guide-to-natural-ga...

Here's a recent article on Mexico's present plan to expand Power Generation:
Mexico expects to add an estimated 29,294 MW of combined-cycle gas-fired power generation capacity over the next 15 years, according to the 2019-2033 Prodesen power sector development plan published in late May by energy ministry Sener.

full article here
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/combined-cycle-plants-domina...

[Edited on 8-19-2021 by JDCanuck]

[Edited on 8-19-2021 by JDCanuck]
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 04:29 PM


I would not be surprised that DK's palm tree is still relatively dry because any expansion/inflow to the Sea of Cortez likely just fills in areas left dry by the massive depletion of the Colorado River inflow, which has been tapped out. So, it may take much more time to show any significant rise compared to many Pacific islands that seem to show documented sea level rise. We do know that the entrance to the delta used to be extremely hazardous for ships entering the Colorado River from the SOC.

Just a thought.

John

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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 04:37 PM


The advantage to natural gas turbines for peaking power demands when wind and solar is not available is extremely rapid startup. We could have our 66 MW plant startup turbine generating in about 30 min. and then use it to bring the main units online one at a time. Combined cycle units use exhaust heat to generate steam for a steam turbine for additional power. They take a bit longer to get online but are far more efficient.
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 04:44 PM


Quote: Originally posted by John Harper  
I would not be surprised that DK's palm tree is still relatively dry because any expansion/inflow to the Sea of Cortez likely just fills in areas left dry by the massive depletion of the Colorado River inflow, which has been tapped out. So, it may take much more time to show any significant rise compared to many Pacific islands that seem to show documented sea level rise. We do know that the entrance to the delta used to be extremely hazardous for ships entering the Colorado River from the SOC.

Just a thought.



John



That is a ridiculous justification to continue ignoring what you actually see and continue hypothesizing about things you dont know about.
The fact will always remain that the earth will continue evolving… When the Sun eventually burns out- which it certainly will- then humankind will have a real dilemma on their hands. Maybe science will figure out a way to compensate for that. Maybe not.

Either way, that inevitability will make the current debate about mans role in climate change seem pretty moot.

Go have some tacos, a cold beer and enjoy the time you actually have here.
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[*] posted on 8-19-2021 at 07:42 PM


If they can combine carbon capture with combined cycle we may actually be able to get to net zero much quicker, without all the extra imported equipment from China to get there. Millions of Engineers around the world working on this one and this seems to be the primary plan for European nations that are cutting coal use fastest.

[Edited on 8-20-2021 by JDCanuck]
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