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Author: Subject: Hurricane Nora coming to Baja Sur
JDCanuck
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[*] posted on 8-26-2021 at 09:31 PM


Yes will be an interesting visit. We should be there in a 3 weeks for the next month after that. Might see some more heavy weather.



A century later and it's still just as applicable: Desiderata: http://mwkworks.com/desiderata.html
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RFClark
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[*] posted on 8-26-2021 at 11:01 PM
Nora may come ashore Sunday Night



Make your plans tomorrow Nora may come ashore overnight Sunday!

D94F1C71-7DA6-416A-BCA0-F79D690D9581.jpeg - 256kB
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RFClark
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[*] posted on 8-27-2021 at 05:20 AM


5:00 PDT

The NOAA site is down probably from excess traffic. The takeaway from the discussion is:

1) Nora’s course past 36 hours is uncertain.
2) Nora may interact with the Mexican mainland south of Baja Sur.
3) Nora may go up the gulf early next week. If it does HWY1 will take a beating in the Ligui - Santa Roselia area.
4) Anyone in LA Bay should be prepared if the storm goes up the gulf.
5) Areas as far north as San Felipe could receive heavy rain fall midweek. Hwy5 South of San Felipe could take a beating from heavy rain.

I will post a new map as soon as NOAA is back up.



[Edited on 8-27-2021 by RFClark]
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[*] posted on 8-27-2021 at 07:20 AM


Quote: Originally posted by RFClark  
5:00 PDT

The NOAA site is down probably from excess traffic. The takeaway from the discussion is:

1) Nora’s course past 36 hours is uncertain.
2) Nora may interact with the Mexican mainland south of Baja Sur.
3) Nora may go up the gulf early next week. If it does HWY1 will take a beating in the Ligui - Santa Roselia area.
4) Anyone in LA Bay should be prepared if the storm goes up the gulf.
5) Areas as far north as San Felipe could receive heavy rain fall midweek. Hwy5 South of San Felipe could take a beating from heavy rain.

I will post a new map as soon as NOAA is back up.



[Edited on 8-27-2021 by RFClark]


NOAA nhc website works fine!

All the latest maps are there

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac







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RFClark
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[*] posted on 8-27-2021 at 09:25 AM
Latest Nora Storm Track




37A4619E-4FE4-4DAD-A3BE-42B22869EA43.jpeg - 252kB

3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a
hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts
to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa,
and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast,
it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of
these potential impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 15.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH


[Edited on 8-27-2021 by RFClark]
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AKgringo
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puzzled.gif posted on 8-27-2021 at 10:09 AM
Time for storm chasing?


Storm chasing.....What a blast!

Storm catching....What was I thinking?




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[*] posted on 8-27-2021 at 11:34 AM


I am happy for the folks in the Sierras...be safe all of you down below! Now taking bets for no rain in Asuncion....



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[*] posted on 8-27-2021 at 12:13 PM


The NOAA 2:00 PM update hasn't changed much. That said the Cabo Hotels are getting out the plywood so!
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[*] posted on 8-27-2021 at 12:28 PM


come on Nora bring us rain! you can do it



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RFClark
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[*] posted on 8-27-2021 at 02:04 PM
Nora vs Ida


Note how much larger Nora is. If it gets as far north as Baja Sur it could be a real rain producer.

1F43BBB2-FC3B-43AA-AEFF-69C5F6B3D5AA.jpeg - 229kB
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[*] posted on 8-27-2021 at 04:57 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Don Pisto  
come on Nora bring us rain! you can do it

10" forecast for La Paz




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RFClark
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[*] posted on 8-27-2021 at 10:14 PM
TS Nora Friday Evening update




95072C8A-F3AD-4891-BB12-DC81E789DA8D.jpeg - 258kB

3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a
hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts
to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa,
and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast,
it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of
these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.3N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
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[*] posted on 8-28-2021 at 05:24 AM


i love these "tracks"
it makes it look so small
when in reality the thing is HUGE




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[*] posted on 8-28-2021 at 12:19 PM


The current track shows Nora bending closer to the mainland while churning up the Sea of Cortes.





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RFClark
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[*] posted on 8-28-2021 at 05:22 PM



2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast
of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero, northward to southern
Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely
result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these
regions. Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S.
and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next
week.

3. Nora is forecast to continue moving northward over the Gulf of
California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to
portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern
Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the
forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 19.7N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 29/0600Z 21.5N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.9N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 23.5N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 24.2N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 24.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 25.6N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 27.6N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1800Z 29.4N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND


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[*] posted on 8-28-2021 at 06:15 PM


Glad to see it bending East. We are headed down on Wednesday, I might need to upgrade to a 4x4 if the rains are heavy.
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[*] posted on 8-28-2021 at 06:55 PM


San Felipe needs rain bad, turn westward after Bahia de Los Angeles. Nice warm water up here in the northern part of the Cortez.



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JDCanuck
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[*] posted on 8-28-2021 at 09:11 PM


Am I right in seeing it breaking up and weakening around Tepic?



A century later and it's still just as applicable: Desiderata: http://mwkworks.com/desiderata.html
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[*] posted on 8-28-2021 at 09:20 PM


Be careful what you wish for. This looks like the real deal, going to be some serious storm damage and the possible loss of many lives.
John Ireland (East Cape, Rancho Leonero) always says the storms that come up the gulf are the worst.




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JDCanuck
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[*] posted on 8-28-2021 at 09:45 PM


I've had the pin placed here for a while now, both wind gust speeds and rainfall slowly declining.
https://www.windy.com/23.060/-109.700?gust,21.136,-107.990,7




A century later and it's still just as applicable: Desiderata: http://mwkworks.com/desiderata.html
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