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Author: Subject: Hurricane Olaf
geraldalexander7
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[*] posted on 9-8-2021 at 09:11 PM
Hurricane Olaf


Keeping an eye on Olaf.
It may brush the Pacific coast of Baja Sur Friday.
:O

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/023829.s...

[Edited on 9-9-2021 by geraldalexander7]

[Edited on 9-10-2021 by BajaNomad]




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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 02:01 AM


It’s been upgraded to Hurricane Olaf again…. Maybe a direct hit on Cabo.
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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 04:58 AM




Olaf 2021.png - 72kB




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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 10:06 AM


oh its coming......some gnarly video's on fb from CSL:o




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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 10:14 AM


definite gusts of wind coming from the east here at La Aguja - normally winds are from the northwest here. Report from friend of heavy rain now in La Paz. Be safe you all.



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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 10:24 AM


Stay safe you two! Viva Playas Pacificas!!



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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 11:08 AM


Thanks David. Getting the first outer band right now. (It's just past noon there to give you a time reference.)

[Edited on 9-9-2021 by bajalinda]




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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 11:59 AM


This screenshot was taken about 20 minutes ago. :wow:





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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 12:11 PM


Just WhatApped with my tocayo, friend and local panga fisherman in Puerto San Carlos, Mag Bay and mentioned a possible close encounter with Olaf coming to their neighborhood soon.

He had not heard anything about Olaf and was grateful for for the heads up.

I am sure the Port Captain and all the larger commercial seiners, trawlers etc know of Olaf but I was surprised this panga guy was unaware of the potential disturbance brushing by soon.

Hoping it cruises by offshore a tad and leaves nothing but a greening Sonoran desert in the Magdalena Plain region.




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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 01:08 PM
Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 8A


1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

"A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baja California Sur, Mexico, north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro"

It is between Mag Bay and Cabo but where exactly is Sante Fe? Or what? Cannot find it on the almanac, etc?

Thanks for any help.




�And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way.�― John Steinbeck
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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 02:09 PM


wow, a one day hurricane warning. The NOAA archive starts tuesday night with formation notice and then weds night with TS watch, and now Hurricane watch and warning.

Direct hit coming looks like.




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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 03:36 PM


There is an old well-known ranch Sante Fe located west of Las Pocitas. Between Las Pocitas and the Pacific - closer to the Pacific. Take another look at the almanac - it's there.

[Edited on 9-9-2021 by bajalinda]




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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 06:23 PM


My thoughts are with all of you in harms way down there...be safe amigos, dont cross running arroyos, hunker down and be prepared! Please update us as long as you have internet. It's gonna be a long night on the tip!



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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 07:48 PM


https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneOLAF

https://twitter.com/NHC_Pacific



[Edited on 9-10-2021 by BajaNomad]




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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 08:01 PM


Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...EYE OF OLAF ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 109.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES




SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San
Andresito
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.




DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 109.6 West. Olaf is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the
west is expected Friday night, followed by a turn toward the
southwest by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Olaf will move over the southern coast of the Baja California
peninsula during the next hour or so, and then move very near or
over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The
hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or
early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through
Friday as Olaf interacts with land. Further weakening is likely
over the weekend after Olaf moves away from Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). A weather station at Cabo San Lucas reported sustained
winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h) during the
past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). A
Weatherflow station near San Jose del Cabo recently reported a
pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches).




HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across the coast within
the hurricane warning area at this time and should continue to
spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
also occuring over portions of Baja California Sur and will spread
northward during the next several hours, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.




NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/100247...




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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 08:23 PM


It’s so windy and rainy that all the Oxxos closed early.
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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 08:33 PM


Los Cabos airport and La Paz malecon - both a few hours ago.




loscabos-airport-preolaf-E-3zh3iVUCcGjoh.jpg - 121kB

[Edited on 9-10-2021 by BajaNomad]

lapaz-pre-olaf-E-5IWGvXIAE-im3.jpg - 195kB




When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel

We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 10:13 PM




241444542_854919321829296_5826325338336694623_n.jpg - 108kB 241557550_1106304106440735_3026114164126830683_n.jpg - 209kB 241400394_1037977160278578_8778409278695759665_n.jpg - 80kB 241475075_1063484171127554_3134649853106483737_n.jpg - 75kB 241392248_895913238018147_1538338130261729311_n.jpg - 139kB




When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel

We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 11:02 PM


Your last photo was the most appropriate for the conditions, but you need a bigger bottle.



Christopher Bruno, Elk Grove, CA.
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[*] posted on 9-9-2021 at 11:44 PM


Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OLAF CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 110.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 110.2 West. Olaf is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is expected
tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest by Saturday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the
southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today. The hurricane
will begin to move westward away from land tonight or early
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is expected today
as Olaf interacts with land. Further weakening is likely over the
weekend after Olaf moves away from Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area and will continue to spread northward today. Tropical
storm conditions are also occuring over portions of Baja California
Sur and will spread northward within the tropical storm warning
area today.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/100551...




When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel

We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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