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mtgoat666
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Posts: 17335
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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Hurricane Kay
Big storm shaping up:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
Impacting baja Sept 7 to 10
This one expected to travel far north, forecast to bring rain to entire peninsula and even San Diego…
[Edited on 9-5-2022 by mtgoat666]
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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surfhat
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What a glorious morning we had here in north San Diego coastal county. To wake up early with the smell of rain permeating the air was glorious.
After the last few days of sweltering in and over the 90 degree temps, this was a gift, for as long as it lasted. haha
Looks like more might be coming from that storm off of central Baja in the coming days.
There was lightning blowing up over the ocean in the wee dark hours before sunrise after the showers. A bit of far away thunder was also happening.
Ain't mother nature wonderful?
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John Harper
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It was 84* at 6:30 in Carlsbad, 97* at noon! And, the humidity is way, way up. More like sister's place in St. Louis. No thanks.
John
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mtgoat666
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Horribly hot over night in San Diego. First time I can remember having AC on overnight. I wonder if the world is getting warmer 
Did the palm tree survive last weeks storm in BCS? Will it survive this weeks storm?
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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surfhat
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Tropical, here in the drought dry desert.
Humidity is good for us sometimes. Definitely sweats out the stuff we need to sweat out.
It could get old and why I never lived back east again after my college years in NC over the last fifty years. At least we don't have the mosquitoes
and horseflies bugging us out here in the west.
Shade and a breeze gets me through every time.
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EdZeranski
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Location: Ocean Beach/Borrego Springs
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Mood: Si! Como no???
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Tropical Depression?
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mtgoat666
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Now TS Kay, and soon to be hurricane.
Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022
Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened into
Tropical Storm Kay. Although the convective pattern is still a bit
ragged, banding features have improved on the south side of the
cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed peak
winds around 35 kt to the northeast of the center. Based on that
data and the T2.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial
intensity is increased a little to 35 kt. Kay is a large storm with
its cloud field extending several hundred miles across, and some of
the outer bands are moving across the coast of southwestern Mexico.
The center is located a little to the north of the previous track,
and the estimated motion is now 290/11 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core
of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that
time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and
then the north. Overall, there has been little change in the model
guidance this cycle and the solutions remain relatively tightly
clustered. Despite the tightly-clustered guidance, the GFS and
ECMWF ensemble spreads encompass as far east as the Gulf of
California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja
California peninsula. The NHC track forecast is a little to the
north of the previous one in the short term, due to the initial
position and motion, but ends up close to the previous track beyond
48 h.
Kay is likely to strengthen during the next few days while it
remains over warm water and embedded in a very moist environment.
Although the Rapid Intensification Indices in the SHIPS model are
relatively high, rapid intensification in the short term appears
unlikely given the broad structure of the cyclone and expected
moderate shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely
consistent with the previous one and shows steady strengthening
during the next 2 to 3 days. Beyond that time, weakening is
expected due to cooler SSTs. Regardless of the details, Kay is
expected to be a significant hurricane near Baja in a few days.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although Kay is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of southwestern Mexico.
2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor Kay as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight or on
Monday.
[Edited on 9-4-2022 by mtgoat666]
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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John Harper
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102* in Carlsbad at 1:45 PM. Not sure the humidity, but it's high. I wonder what the "heat index" is from that?
John
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El Camote
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We're at 102 in Santa Barbara also. We have city ordinances against that kind of temperature. 
Knowledge is good. - Emil Faber
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AKgringo
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Coincidence...it hit 102 in Grass Valley for a while, and dryer than a popcorn fart! A fire started a couple of miles from me, but it got knocked
down right away!
[Edited on 9-4-2022 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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Don Pisto
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Mood: weary like everyone else
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close to a hundred on the beach in Puerto Nuevo area and humid....its nice to have some "weather" for a change ......looking forward to maybe some rain toward end of the week.
there's only two things in life but I forget what they are........
John Hiatt
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mtgoat666
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This forecast is a bit early, so may be, may not be…
[Edited on 9-8-2022 by BajaNomad]
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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tiotomasbcs
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Location: El Pescadero
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Hope you guys get rain from Javier & Kay but here in Todos Santos it would be nice to get a low grade TS or Cat 1 Hurricane! Javier dropped
2-4inches last week. Locals will never forget Odile and I was not here thankfully!
Love the rain and green scenery but the winds can be damaging--Odile!! Wish us LUCK down here..Salud!
[Edited on 9-4-2022 by tiotomasbcs]
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mtgoat666
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Posts: 17335
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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[Edited on 9-8-2022 by BajaNomad]
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 17335
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Hot n spicy
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[Edited on 9-8-2022 by BajaNomad]
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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shari
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Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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sure not looking good for us here in Asuncion...enormous swell will test the new seawall for sure and looks like extremely high winds and lots of
rain...dang it. It's a crap shoot if it will hit the tip and split into 2, or get sucked over to the gulf side's warm waters or go west...I will take
any of those!
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John Harper
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Found a heat index calculator, courtesy of NWS:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex.shtml
So, 102* in Carlsbad with 69% humidity (NWS) yields heat index of 150*
I heard it hit 102* in Avalon today as well. Hmmm.
102* in all these places? I smell a conspiracy! Is the government now in control of our state's ambient temperature? Is Newsome involved? If they
control indoor thermostats, who knows what they really control?
Do JZ and DK know about this?
John
[Edited on 9-5-2022 by John Harper]
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RFClark
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As I said we’re headed north Saturday. We’ll have our StarLink with us and post pictures and news as indicated. Currently most of the models have
shifted west. Looks like landfall at Goats place in SD! A drought and a flood at the same time only in California.
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Don Pisto
Super Nomad
Posts: 1240
Registered: 8-1-2018
Location: El Pescador
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Mood: weary like everyone else
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Quote: Originally posted by John Harper  | Found a heat index calculator, courtesy of NWS:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex.shtml
So, 102* in Carlsbad with 69% humidity (NWS) yields heat index of 150*
I heard it hit 102* in Avalon today as well. Hmmm.
102* in all these places? I smell a conspiracy! Is the government now in control of our state's ambient temperature? Is Newsome involved? If they
control indoor thermostats, who knows what they really control?
Do JZ and DK know about this?
John
[Edited on 9-5-2022 by John Harper] |
something is definitely hinky here...this from wikipedia "102 (one hundred [and] two) is the natural number following 101 and preceding
103."......what do they take us for?
there's only two things in life but I forget what they are........
John Hiatt
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SFandH
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Posts: 6927
Registered: 8-5-2011
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102 is also twice 51 - a prime number - very suspicious - I bet the FBI is in on it.
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