000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090855
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
200 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006
A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
UNTIL VERY RECENTLY THE COLDEST TOPS WERE LESS THAN -80 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06 UTC WERE 30-35 KT.
SINCE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BEEN ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DEPRESSION
FELL SQUARELY WITHIN THE GAP BETWEEN QUIKSCAT SWATHS AT ABOUT 01
UTC AND 03 UTC...SO THERE IS NO WIND DATA FROM ANYWHERE NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A
FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 28C TO
ABOUT 26C DURING THAT SAME PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND SHOWS A PEAK AT 40
KT...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE NEARING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
A RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT
TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AFTER IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD...
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO QUICKLY. IN FACT...THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
Hopefully just some rain at the coastal area.Bruce R Leech - 10-9-2006 at 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by FARASHA
Hopefully just some rain at the coastal area.
I think you are right but it is still a little unnerving.
Tropical Storm NORMAN------
Barry A. - 10-9-2006 at 02:02 PM
----looks closer to Baja Sur than "E"-------in fact they are very close together, or so it appears on the weather maps.FARASHA - 10-9-2006 at 02:06 PM
next 2 days will show, at least far off Mulege this one.
Overcast in San Jose
bajajudy - 10-9-2006 at 02:10 PM
It is a very strange day here in San Jose. Very overcast and cool. Only 82 on my porch right now in the hottest time of the day.
It looks pretty socked in but doesnt look like rain. Calm, almost no wind. It kinda reminds me of San Francisco....just kinda gray. I think that I
will take a siesta...perfect weather for the hammock.
A little rain would be nice....a little.comitan - 10-9-2006 at 02:56 PM
Well it looks more like Saturday for possible rain in La Paz, yes we'll take it.Marie-Rose - 10-9-2006 at 03:00 PM
Really hope it is just a "little" rain!! Me and the boys (hijo and dos amigos) arrive
Sat!!!
Judy, gotta chuckle out of your "quite cool and 82 degrees"!!!! Our furnace bit the dust
last week and we were really "quite cool"!!! Any chance of meeting you in the next
couple of weeks?comitan - 10-9-2006 at 03:04 PM
Marie-Rose
You better bring boots you have a good size river going into Todos Santos from La Paz.villadelfin - 10-9-2006 at 05:25 PM
There is another storm right behind Norman that is predicted to follow the same track. 16E...El Jefe - 10-9-2006 at 07:20 PM
It will rain for sure NE of San Jose del. I just the other day lugged the good mattress up on the roof to get some cool. No doubt I'll be lugging it
down in a hurry when the drops fall.Marie-Rose - 10-9-2006 at 08:47 PM
Absolutely NO rubber boots in BCS!!!!! I will walk thru the river with bare
feet!
And, if there is rain... I hope that our skylights have been repaired because the rain
in July nearly floated us out!!! (by the way...skylights in BCS...NOT a good idea!)FARASHA - 10-10-2006 at 03:22 AM
NORMAN seems to BUDDY UP with 16 E and acummulates all whats out there!!Going to be a wet weekend on pacific coast?
Get the matress off the roof and hang the shoes around neck!And the rubberduckies out!Bruce R Leech - 10-10-2006 at 10:55 AM
cant you just put some plastic on the matress on the roof?FARASHA - 10-10-2006 at 11:02 AM
OR a tent on the roof?
How is NORMAN DOING??AND 16E, can't open the weather site, tooo slow connection here at moment. Can see my hair growning before it opens.rpleger - 10-10-2006 at 11:23 AM
Oh BoyBruce R Leech - 10-10-2006 at 11:38 AM
"We are here on Earth to fart around. Don't let anybody tell you any different."
Kurt Vonnegut.
Richard on the hill you crack me up. keep it upbajajudy - 10-10-2006 at 04:46 PM
I will walk thru the river with bare
feet!